May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Maps that show orange for patterns that aren’t necessarily above average are certainly useful if you are trying to push a narrative.

 

Right.   

 

If the EPS was showing a strong signal for cold out West in the 10-15 day period then it would be an awesome tool.   

[Jesse]

Right.

 

If the EPS was showing a strong signal for cold out West in the 10-15 day period then it would be an awesome tool.

If it was showing deep blue for a fairly flat, run of the mill 500mb pattern I would say there was a problem with it.

[Phil]

And yet is been basically correct over the last 6 weeks.

 

There has been just one below normal day at SEA since April 18th... and that was a -1 departure on 4/28.

Yet it missed the upcoming pattern excursion for the reasons I mentioned.

 

If enough of the ensemble members are over-estimating the off-equator WPAC convection and the resultant diabatic heat release into the NW-Pacific surf zone (which it tends to do) then it’s giving the same false impression.

[Phil]

I agree. Its been showing warm for the most part out here for the last 6 weeks. It has missed all of the cold troughs and cold anomalies we had over that time span.

That’s fine, but you should also look at the spread present within the ensemble mean. Sometimes the mean is reflective of the spread, and sometimes it’s not.

 

And sometimes the model just succumbs to its bias or is erroneous for some other reason. Both of which could be the case here, just like it is/was for the 5/30 - 6/3 period.

[Phil]

Remember that last run of the EPS weeklies?

 

Well, here’s the week 2 (5/29 - 6/4) 850mb temperature anomaly map from that run. Completely overblew that ridge across the elevated terrain. Makes a difference:

 

[TT-SEA]

Remember that last run of the EPS weeklies?

 

Well, here’s the week 2 (5/29 - 6/4) 850mb temperature anomaly map from that run. Completely overblew that ridge across the elevated terrain. Makes a difference:

 

 

And yet... its been showing warmth overall in the 10-15 period for about 6 weeks and its been warm over that period.

 

There were some EPS runs that were cooler than that as well.   One run does not determine everything.  

[Phil]

And yet... its been showing warmth overall in the 10-15 period for about 6 weeks and its been warm over that period.

 

There were some EPS runs that were cooler than that as well. One run does not determine everything.

I’m talking about the upcoming pattern, which is more complex and difficult for the modeling overall. More components involved.

 

The EPS just missed it altogether (as far as the “mean” is concerned, at least). Some patterns are just more difficult to model than others.

[Front Ranger]

It's almost like March is wetter than June.

Thanks, Dewey!

 

Trough expectations should adjust accordingly.

[Deweydog]

So are we not entirely sure what the weather will be like 240 hours from now?

 

#weirdyear

[Deweydog]

Thanks, Dewey!

 

Trough expectations should adjust accordingly.

Don't lump me into this. I find the difference between the two udderly mystifying.

[Geos]

Crazy to see winter weather advisories up for the Sierras. 

 

Meanwhile 66 and partly sunny here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

70 and mostly sunny in Springfield. Beautiful right now.

[weather girl]

Thank you Jesse and Phil for answering my earlier post about the UK heat wave. It was crazy time at work for a few days or I would have thanked you earlier. I’m sure you were on pins and needles.

[James Jones]

I know everybody is talking about it, but it really is incredible how dry it's been for the last month. A regional soaking would be extremely welcome right now. Hopefully this dry pattern breaks and we get some meaningful rain while it's still a reasonable climatological possibility or things could be really ugly with dead trees and forest fires come late summer.

 

And yes Tim, I know it rains a lot in the winter and that it's been really wet at your location. But our ecosystem is not meant to handle 5 months of bone dry conditions.

[TT-SEA]

I know everybody is talking about it, but it really is incredible how dry it's been for the last month. A regional soaking would be extremely welcome right now. Hopefully this dry pattern breaks and we get some meaningful rain while it's still a reasonable climatological possibility or things could be really ugly with dead trees and forest fires come late summer.

 

And yes Tim, I know it rains a lot in the winter and that it's been really wet at your location. But our ecosystem is not meant to handle 5 months of bone dry conditions.

 

 

And what is your plan to change the weather?

 

You act like I am making it dry.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, here are the 12z EURO EPS 15 day PNA forecasts from yesterday and today. It went from negative PNA through the next 15 days yesterday to positive PNA after June 3rd today. It definitely picked onto something. Whether or not this is just a false signal remains to be seen.

 

 

[Jesse]

So are we not entirely sure what the weather will be like 240 hours from now?

 

#weirdyear

I guess someone just realized that people spend a lot of time debating the respective merit of different models/interpretation techniques here. Because it’s a weather forum.

 

#superweirdyear

[James Jones]

And what is your plan to change the weather?

 

You act like I am making it dry.   

 

No, I'm acting like you might post stats about how much rain you've seen at your house and talk about how it rains all winter.

[Farmboy]

FWIW, here are the 12z EURO EPS 15 day PNA forecasts from yesterday and today. It went from negative PNA through the next 15 days yesterday to positive PNA after June 3rd today. It definitely picked onto something. Whether or not this is just a false signal remains to be seen.

 

 

 

Long range 18z gfs at day 10 & thereafter seems to hint at a large area of high pressure over New Mexico, Colorado and the western plains, hopefully it  slides west in future runs....

[Jesse]

Long range 18z gfs seems to hint at a large area of high pressure over New Mexico, Colorado and the western plains, hopefully it slides west in future runs....

There is always going to be ridging somewhere. That spot actually teleconnects well to troughing here. Especially during longer wavelength season.

[TT-SEA]

No, I'm acting like you might post stats about how much rain you've seen at your house and talk about how it rains all winter.

 

Statistically... it has been very wet in Western WA since 2014. 

 

That is fact.   

 

Its been much wetter than normal.    And its not just related to my microclimate.    

 

And I don't control the weather.  What I cheer for has no impact on what actually happens... also a fact. 

 

Side note... we are doing great up here in terms of water.    And this dry pattern probably means a wet late summer anyways.   So a few more weeks and the fall rains will start up.   I am going to enjoy every minute of sunshine that I can get and not worry about rain here.   Sorry.  

[El Nina]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DLLCF7vPanrY&ved=0ahUKEwjYnsPfw5_bAhXaBjQIHQY7A1UQtwIIJTAA&usg=AOvVaw3nhYCg76GtSlkY5mGAGk4Q

It would be hard to watch this and say it couldn't have affected global weather patterns at all.

(I would recommend speeding up the video 2x)

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 68 here... absolutely gorgeous outside.   

 

I don't need 90-degree weather to be perfectly happy.

[MossMan]

Sunny and 68 here... absolutely gorgeous outside.

 

I don't need 90-degree weather to be perfectly happy.

Lovely day up here as well!

[Jesse]

You need to watch this Tim. It could always be worse.

 

https://youtu.be/_1LdMWlNYS4

 

Some fascinating geology and paleoclimatology here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The new Storm Radar app is a disgrace compared to the old Storm app which is no longer supported. No windstream or weather stations.

[TT-SEA]

You need to watch this Tim. It could always be worse.

 

https://youtu.be/_1LdMWlNYS4

 

Some fascinating geology and paleoclimatology here.

 

Earth was really dry... then really wet.  I do find this stuff fascinating and like to imagine what it would have been like to be alive at different time in the Earth's evolution.

 

But I am not going to worry about the endless cycles that planets go through over billions of years.  All I can do is hope for some sunshine during my short time here.  We are here for a brief millisecond in time.

[Farmboy]

There is always going to be ridging somewhere. That spot actually teleconnects well to troughing here. Especially during longer wavelength season.

 

 

I have a feeling the forthcoming troughing next month isn't going to be lasting as long as you're hoping...  

[Jesse]

I have a feeling the forthcoming troughing next month isn't going to be lasting as long as you're hoping...

You are probably right.

 

We will see some though, which is a lot more than you are hoping for. Could be borderline unacceptable at points.

[Farmboy]

You are probably right.

 

We will see some though, which is a lot more than you are hoping for. Could be borderline unacceptable at points.

 

Seeing a stretch of 80's on the horizon would help...

[Phil]

Seeing a stretch of 80's on the horizon would help...

You should move to Florida or Arizona if you want summers full of 80s and 90s. Tim should probably consider doing so, as well.

[Front Ranger]

You should move to Florida or Arizona if you want summers full of 80s and 90s. Tim should probably consider doing so, as well.

It's not even June, and there have been a good number of 80+ days for many places. Silliness.

[TT-SEA]

You should move to Florida or Arizona if you want summers full of 80s and 90s. Tim should probably consider doing so, as well.

 

Florida or Arizona?    Portland has an average high in the 80s in the summer.    

 

And central and eastern WA has a summer full of 80s and 90s.   

 

Why does he have to move thousands of miles away to a desert wasteland or a swamp??  

[Phil]

Florida or Arizona? Portland has an average high in the 80s in the summer.

 

And central and eastern WA has a summer full of 80s and 90s.

 

Why does he have to move thousands of miles away to a desert wasteland or a swamp??

Because he wants it to last longer than just 6 weeks every year. As you so often say.

[Deweydog]

00z alert!!!

[TT-SEA]

Because he wants it to last longer than just 6 weeks every year. As you so often say.

 

Average highs are in the 80s east of the mountains for about 3 months... actually the entire summer.

[BLI snowman]

There's rain on the 00z at times and that is rather depressing. Especially when one considers how wet December 2015 and November 2006 were.

[The Swamp]

Because he wants it to last longer than just 6 weeks every year. As you so often say.

 

You are an absolute tool.

 

That's a lock.

[Phil]

You are an absolute tool.

 

That's a lock.

Bite me.

[El Nina]

There's rain on the 00z at times and that is rather depressing. Especially when one considers how wet December 2015 and November 2006 were.

My grass is still soggy from December 2015.