Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 GEFS is also S -- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Nebraska close up to really get the burn in deep Freaking laughable… at this point Mother Nature is mocking us here in Omaha. I have lived here for all my 42 years and I can’t remember getting dogged like this over and over. Looking forward to a work trip to New Mexico next week to escape the incoming miserable, cold, and dry weather here. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 06GFS 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 DMX latest- starting to show more extent of +4" across N.Central IA compared to previous outlook. Always a fight in snow events and this fight is not neccs cold air aloft being around but how much WAA occurs FRI in the lower levels. Fridays temps in C.IA (N.IA is good) will determine snow amounts as the system is not that deep and serious WAA should not happen for hydrometeor change-- but any will be crucial as the moisture is there. AS others have mentioned- a S werd shift makes sense but I think the GFS is maxed out -- expect the 4-6+ line to be on the HWY 20 line in IA,, maybe a cty or so S. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 0z EPS... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 I'm optimistic about this one. 25-28 degrees and snow for 6+ hours. Hopefully the track doesn't waver much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z RGEM pretty similar to 06z. This model has also remained pretty consistent in it's solution with little north/south wavering of the main axis. Looks pretty set that this first wave will stay north. Around here, we are hoping that the 2nd, weaker wave, may develop. At the end of the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM runs, they start to show this at hour 84. Will see if other models show this occurring. Would love to pick up several inches of powder Sunday/Monday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 12Z GFS. There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska. Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Trends look fairly solid this morning for the I80 corridor on north in Iowa. Except for the NAM, but I really don't put much weight in the NAM, especially outside of 24-36 hours. GFS, Canadian, and UK all showing roughly .35 to .45" qpf for IC and CR and surrounding areas. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Kudos to the Euro for being extremely consistent. It's not wavering north and south like other models. I still don't like being near the south edge. Sioux Falls to Waterloo to Dubuque looks like the best corridor. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z vs 00z Euro totals for both waves. Unsurprisingly, only minor differences. Doesn't want to develop the secondary wave south across Nebraska as other models do. Might be a nowcast, watch the radar on Saturday into Sunday, to see if it might occur. Who knows at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: 12Z GFS. There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska. Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur. That GFS is trying to throw Clinton and me a little snow Saturday night with the strong push of cold air... the night before the Big Chiefs Victory! Very cold at the game it appears, maybe 12-14 degrees at game time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 12z Euro...there is a weak disturbance riding up the boundary on Mon that needs to be monitored for additional lighter snows... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Highway 20 special in the making right there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 06z NAM was way north, up in far northern Iowa. The 12z came back south a bit and now the 18z has come farther south... now very similar to the consistent Euro. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 18z RDPS has come south as well. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The 18z RDPS has come south as well. Not sure if the NAM will verify for you but it's 2 for 2 on the season for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa. This really isn't the best range for the HRRR (frankly I'm not sure any range is). It tends to swing and miss a lot outside of 24 hours. I still think the Euro is probably pretty close to right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 This mornings HRW- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 26, 2023 Report Share Posted January 26, 2023 50 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Anything less than 3" would be a disappointment. I'd really like 4". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 18Z Accu-Model (fwiw-- did pretty good for the last event around here) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 On 12/8 and 12/9 or 50 days ago we had this. It will probably be a little further south this time but the northern solutions are probably going to be close. The artic front could shove it further south, should be fun to watch it unfold. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: This mornings HRW- Usually has a southern bias, especially after hour 24, although I would love for that to verify 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I swear the Euro hasn’t wobbled more than 5 miles north or south in the last 8 runs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 The Euro did tick north this run, not what I want to see. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 HRRR way up in N IA. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, hlcater said: HRRR way up in N IA. Yep, 18z went north, 00z even farther north. Dang... the 12z model runs had me feeling better again, then they start drifting back north. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 NAM going north Way north Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 NAM is way north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, hlcater said: NAM going north Way north What the f is up with these dang models? They come south this morning for some reason, then jump right back to f'ing northern Iowa again this evening. Seriously, why didn't they just stay north in the first place? It's stupid. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 FV3 is way south of the NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Initial call for CR: 2”. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 The 18z 3kNAM had the center of the heavy band right down hw30, through Ames and Cedar Rapids. The 00z run has NOTHING down hw30. How the heck can any model be that different, from one run to the next, for a pretty simple overrunning event like this? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I feel like when the NAM is north, all is right in the world. I’m not even remotely concerned with the nam at this point. This is what it does. It’s just not a trustworthy model at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Got a fairly heavy line of snow moving through Central Nebraska. I’m now going to get snow for a couple of hours. This was not predicted in this area. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 FV3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I prefer the NAM in severe weather mode VS. Winter weather mode. It jumps around a lot. Just my 2 cents. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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