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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Nebraska close up to really get the burn in deep😂😂

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Freaking laughable… at this point Mother Nature is mocking us here in Omaha. I have lived here for all my 42 years and I can’t remember getting dogged like this over and over. 

Looking forward to a work trip to New Mexico next week to escape the incoming miserable, cold, and dry weather here.

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DMX latest-   starting to show more extent of +4" across N.Central IA compared to previous outlook. Always a fight in snow events and this fight is not neccs cold air aloft being around but how much WAA occurs FRI in the lower levels. Fridays temps in C.IA (N.IA is good) will determine snow amounts as the system is not that deep and serious WAA should not happen for hydrometeor change-- but any will be crucial as the moisture is there. AS others have mentioned- a S werd  shift makes sense but I think the GFS is maxed out -- expect the 4-6+ line to be on the HWY 20 line in IA,, maybe a cty or so S.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z RGEM pretty similar to 06z.

This model has also remained pretty consistent in it's solution with little north/south wavering of the main axis.

2023-01-26 09_07_15-RDPS_ WeatherBell Maps - Vivaldi.png

Looks pretty set that this first wave will stay north.  Around here, we are hoping that the 2nd, weaker wave, may develop.   At the end of the 12Z NAM and 12Z RGEM runs, they start to show this at hour 84.  Will see if other models show this occurring.  Would love to pick up several inches of powder Sunday/Monday.  

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Trends look fairly solid this morning for the I80 corridor on north in Iowa.  Except for the NAM, but I really don't put much weight in the NAM, especially outside of 24-36  hours.  

GFS, Canadian, and UK all showing roughly .35 to .45" qpf for IC and CR and surrounding areas.  

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Kudos to the Euro for being extremely consistent.  It's not wavering north and south like other models.  I still don't like being near the south edge.  Sioux Falls to Waterloo to Dubuque looks like the best corridor.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z Euro totals for both waves. Unsurprisingly, only minor differences. 

2023-01-26 12_21_31-ECMWF_ WeatherBell Maps - Vivaldi.png

Doesn't want to develop the secondary wave south across Nebraska as other models do.  Might be a nowcast, watch the radar on Saturday into Sunday, to see if it might occur.  Who knows at this point.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS.  There is that 2nd wave showing up over my area of Central Nebraska.  Hopefully that can come to fruition, and possibly strengthen if some banding can occur.

12Z GFS 1 16 23.png

That GFS is trying to throw Clinton and me a little snow Saturday night with the strong push of cold air... the night before the Big Chiefs Victory! Very cold at the game it appears, maybe 12-14 degrees at game time.

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The 06z NAM was way north, up in far northern Iowa.  The 12z came back south a bit and now the 18z has come farther south... now very similar to the consistent Euro.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Meanwhile, the HRRR and RAP are trending north, into northern Iowa.

image.thumb.png.48fbed7fc6484511b25bbef12da1aa87.png

This really isn't the best range for the HRRR (frankly I'm not sure any range is).  It tends to swing and miss a lot outside of 24 hours.  I still think the Euro is probably pretty close to right.  

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50 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

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Anything less than 3" would be a disappointment.  I'd really like 4".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, hlcater said:

HRRR way up in N IA.

Yep, 18z went north, 00z even farther north.  Dang... the 12z model runs had me feeling better again, then they start drifting back north.

image.thumb.png.be65ae12af72268fcf426aa595f2cdb6.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

NAM going north

 

Way north

What the f is up with these dang models?  They come south this morning for some reason, then jump right back to f'ing northern Iowa again this evening.  Seriously, why didn't they just stay north in the first place?  It's stupid. 🤬🤬

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 18z 3kNAM had the center of the heavy band right down hw30, through Ames and Cedar Rapids.  The 00z run has NOTHING down hw30.  How the heck can any model be that different, from one run to the next, for a pretty simple overrunning event like this?

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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