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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'd take the consistency of the Euro over just about anything else. While it can still be subject to last minute shifts like every other model, when it's consistent like this it's not often that it's wrong, from my experience. 

The 00z 3km NAM is actually not too far off from the 18z Euro now. I wouldn't be surprised to see other 00z runs settle somewhere around there too.

The NAM showing the heaviest totals near your back yard and NW Iowa seems like a good bet to me.  And the NAM has been really good as of late.

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3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

ukie-

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

The UK has a 6-hour period where the snowfall doesn't show, which is why northeast Iowa is so dry.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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03z RAP... even farther north.  I have to think this may be too far north.  Heck, the GFS has several inches across the entire Chicago area while the RAP has zero.

image.thumb.png.7f3499133694cd4edf42bd8f5baf9d8d.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK has a 6-hour period where the snowfall doesn't show, which is why northeast Iowa is so dry.

I see that -- odd. add about .5 to 1.5" to those totals from C.IA on E if you use the 12Z

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Getting close on being time to punt for those south of 20. With the trends tonight its looking like this might be ANOTHER 1" snow.... yay.

Assuming we get a bit Friday and again Saturday, I may end up with six consecutive 0.5-1.3" snows.  Unfortunately, the fact is our snow climate sucks.  It's a nickel/dimer climate and it always will be.  Ten variables have to align perfectly just to get 6".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Assuming we get a bit Friday and again Saturday, I may end up with six consecutive 0.5-1.3" snows.  Unfortunately, the fact is our snow climate sucks.  It's a nickel/dimer climate and it always will be.  Ten variables have to align perfectly just to get 6".

I've got exactly 1 event down over 3" so far this year. Pathetic.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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06z RDPS...I remember the Canadian model was one of the best to use tracking clipper systems during the '13-'14 season among others.  Some of the models are suggesting the lake get involved depending on the track of the wave, NE IL may score a few inches if things line up right.

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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LOT has some interesting wording suggesting convection within the meso bands that will develop...they are also suggesting snow ratios to be 12:-14:1...

There will be several sheared mid-level short-wave impulses
interacting with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped
across the area in a zone ranging between roughly I-80 on the
north end of model guidance and US-24 on the south end of model
guidance during the day on Saturday. The lower and mid-level wind
response to these disturbances acting upon a tight baroclinic
zone (thermal gradient) will help induce a frontogenetic
circulation and likely a narrow (~2-4 county wide) snow band
producing moderate to heavy snow. Finally, upper level jet
dynamics are also expected to aid in the large scale ascent.
A few additional pieces of the puzzle will be steep mid-level
lapse rates within and above the DGZ plus a plume of 150-200% of
normal PWATs to tap into. The reduced static stability and
potential for even some upright convection is a common trait of
mesoscale snow band events.

 

Izzi touches on bit on the lake enhancement scenario...

Finally, improving lake induced thermodynamics and convergence
should help at least loosely organized lake enhancement take shape
late Saturday night. Inversion heights are expected to be modest,
but good convergence and lake induced CAPE (100-300 J/kg) could
yield some additional minor accumulations near the lake in a zone
from the Chicago shore and points south and into parts of
northwest Indiana, depending on how quickly the convergence axis
shifts. The lake effect snow threat should wind down by mid day
Sunday. Temperatures will only recover to near/around 20 northwest
and mid-upper 20s elsewhere Sunday afternoon, with slowly
diminishing northerly winds keeping wind chills in the single
digits and teens.

 

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The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

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3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The temperatures have fallen here in the last hour and looking out the window the wind has also picked up as well. At this time there is a little bit of red/pink to the sky looking to the west. That is a little odd as the sky to the east is clear but there are clouds to the west and they (the clouds) are red. 

I always like your detailed updates. Our son goes to Grand Valley University and it’s nice knowing what kind of weather he’s dealing with over there.

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18 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Had an overnight refresher up here in MN. Eyeballing at least an inch....maybe 2? Down in IA my place is in a WWA tomorrow for 3-5"

Yeah I drove right through all that last night on my way up to Menahga MN. It really came down for a while. Roads were nearly 100% snow covered. Couldn’t even see the lines at times. Made for an interesting drive. Looks like they got about 1.5” here in Menahga. 

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CAM's slow to pick-up on the density of incoming cold (yeah, actual real-deal winter cold temps-go figure)??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Congrats @Tom (and other ORD Peeps ofc) for reeling this one in:

 

23-01-27 4am noaad2.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man, there's still a wide range of solutions from the models today.  Most likely, the far north (HRRR) and far south (GDPS) are wrong and it will end up in the middle.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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