Jump to content

1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

Recommended Posts

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

They seem confused...

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have made it up to 37 so far.  Some melting going on, but the glacier is still intact with the massive piles and drifts looking good. Hoping for an 1-2" over the next few days, but most forecasts are very pessimistic on accumulations in our area.  

“Expect nothing… get nothing” - that’s my new motto with Winter storms going forward in Eastern Nebraska.

Might be a good idea for a signature for my profile haha!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

86BBBD20-D981-4F7A-BE86-E4D96944FB14.thumb.jpeg.eedd26c580229b152cb0cffcd9a353d9.jpeg

That looks like almost every snow in 2021. Things looked good a day ago here, but now very sketchy whether we can get much if any snow. Funny how the high is forecasted to be the exact same 33F we had for Wednesday's storm. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just grasping at anything at this point and I realize its rather fruitless-- BUT-- the latest SREF did move rather far S for this close to the event---doubling the QPF at DSM and most other locations along I-80. Old vs. new run... Yeah I know.... :O) qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As models went north, they got wetter.  As they are coming south, they're weaker.  I guess that makes sense.  I'll gladly take a bit weaker if I can get into the better snow band.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM is S also. DSM area gained another tenth Qpf-- Granted this was from .01 to .02" to .12" or so-- but still. This trend is nice and maybe can continue throughout the event.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

image.thumb.png.ea885039b8b5731fd1abe5fe1b4b75bf.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC just appears too robust in it's QPF-- has .08" for  KDSM  by 6am -- that is highly suspect. But it has been highly consistent and is now showing decent snows late SAT PM.  Seems other guidance is starting to latch on to the idea of this been a longer duration event than first thought. snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

image.thumb.png.ea885039b8b5731fd1abe5fe1b4b75bf.png

For here, it's the opposite in that it shows much more on the southern edge. I think every other model showing only +/-2"

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z UK... a bit south, but on the weak end of the model range.  It's too bad the real juice in far northeast Nebraska couldn't continue across Iowa.

image.thumb.png.6da7e417d29c80ff9945812a066ad16b.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202301280940-KLOT-WWUS43-WSWLOT
 

nws Chicago sticking with the 2-6”.  Looking closer to 4-6” in the Northern Lake county.  I hope it pans out. 

I like the trends in the 00z Suite of Global models...I like where you sit and the wild card will be how much the Lake can bump up totals.  I'm seeing a good signal for some lake enhancement and also a lake plume that could hug the shores of NE IL well into Sun afternoon.  

0z Euro...

image.png

 

image.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Woah, LOT has some rather strong wording on the developing meso scale band over N IL and suggesting some spots could exceed 10"...

Quote

Both NAM and GFS cross sections through this f-gen band today are concerning for a number of reasons. First, despite differences in placement of the sfc low and sfc front and placement of model QPF, both NAM and GFS are surprisingly similar location of the f-gen. Second, unsurprisingly given the steep low and mid level lapse rates upstream, both GFS and NAM show large areas of negative saturated EPV (indicative of slantwise and/or upright instability). This instability is forecast to be favorably co-located with the strong ascent with ageostrophic vertical circulation associated with the f-gen band. Set-up looks pretty classic for an intense mesoscale snow band to develop over southern Wisconsin or far northern IL this afternoon into this evening. Final item of concern is that this f-gen band is progged to be nearly stationary for 8-12 hours. Given pwats of 150-175% of normal, if this band were to sit in one place for while, then it wouldn`t be hard to envision a band of >10" of snow.

 

IF, and big IF, the 12z Suite comes in farther south then LOT is saying they could upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings...

Quote
Conversely, if the band sets up
farther south, like the global models suggest, then day shift may
need to upgrade to winter storm warnings with much higher totals.

 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears likely something in between the north and south models will be right for my area.  The short-term models have come south some, but still have me on the southern edge.  2-3" is a decent guess.  At least it's something.  There's nothing else in sight going forward.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom Thx for all the maps. You look primo. After a rare bullseye here Wed, it's back to riding the southern cut-off edge over here per usual. It'd be great if we could get a solid 2" to dress-up our snowpack before we go CAD, but tbh I won't be holding my breath. Looks like you and GR Peeps will be the ones reporting w/photo and upgrades. Good luck!

Edit: yep image.png.7cf1e7db718945e6faf5993cb7422d8c.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Storm Warning for my area, up to 10 inches expected. The MKX morning AFD mentions possible lake-effect snow into Sunday morning!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

As winds shift to the northeast this evening, lake effect snow is expected to begin from Sheboygan to Kenosha. With Lake temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (~3C) and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -10 C, our delta T`s will be good with the unidirectional boundary layer flow. This will be a big driver in enhancing the ongoing system snowfall. Late this evening, our delta T difference will grow and southern Wisconsin will be in the right rear quadrant of the the upper level (500mb) shortwave. This synoptic setup will only enhance the lake effect snowfall machine and it will keep snowfall ongoing further inland through tonight due to the upward momentum and decent mid level moisture. While snowfall will be ongoing, inland areas can expect snowfall rates to taper off by tonight.  As we head into the early morning hours Sunday, snow will gradually come to an end from west to east. Winds on the back side of the surface low pressure system will be slow to shift from the east-northeast to northerly which will keep lake effect snowfall ongoing into Sunday morning for the Lakeshore counties. Blowing and drifting snow in open areas can not be ruled out for this evening into early Sunday morning, as the northeast to north winds are expected to gust to around 25 mph following most of the snow accumulation.

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...