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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

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FWIW: They were spot on w/ the last storm calling for 4-8"......

WinterCast

Saturday Evening - Sunday Morning

3 - 6 inches
Snow
 
Now...I'll take this and run....but, in any case, it is a very complicated scenario..I'd wait until today's cycle at 4pm for the latest. It can go from nothing to a WWA, or to WSW.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z Euro suggesting the meso scale banding to come into NE IL up through GRR...Trending very + and I think Upgrades are coming for the afternoon package. @Hawkeye@bud2380 Looking better also...

image.png

 

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Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2023_01/1817773551_animate(3).gif.02e1aeb9a0a4a904597ab9f62e654db0.gif

I like the way the radar looks. I think its time to just look at radars for this.

@Tomthis snow is making a B-Line at yr pl. Looks moderate to even heavy.

Look out @westMJimand @Stacsh.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GEFS...I must say, the GEFS/GEPS have not budged much over the past 3-4 days and have been very consistent.  Kuddos???  I like how the models are showing a longer duration event here as the wave strengthens late tonight into Sun.  Maybe @Clintoncan score??  @Stacsh @westMJim  @jaster220

image.png

 

 

 

GFS has been consistent placing a very narrow band of accumulating snow across mby and now a few other models are jumping on.  Not much of a margin for error but I will gladly take it and it would likely stay for awhile.

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Now the HRRR/RAP/NAM are overdoing the snow here.  They are showing 1"/hr rate between 8-10am, but this stuff we're getting is pretty light, nowhere near the necessary rate.  Radar also shows the southern edge rapidly approaching, so I'm doubting we'll get more than 2".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up

AFA2CF92-B8F2-4228-A688-FDA82C11F300.png

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Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.
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11 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up

AFA2CF92-B8F2-4228-A688-FDA82C11F300.png

It will be fun to watch where this boundary sets up. Dont trust everything you see so far. This thing might take more south trends and it already has been doing that. Even the NAM has been trying to do catch up. Stay Tuned!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system was a pretty big flop here. Very sharp northern cutoff of the band to the point that we haven't gotten more than just light snow. I'm thinking we will end up with barely 2 inches, which will put us about one inch short of the record.

So close yet so far.

I think in Portland they are not going to get any snow, but the cold is settling in. It’s the famous use all the moisture before the cold gets there scenario.  Man that was frustrating live over there.  Glad you are doing good in the snow dept.  Just happy to see snow every year in this climate. 

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35 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

I am under that line right now and it is not that heavy. Actually its pretty light. Yesterday's line that moved through was way heavier.

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1 hour ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but its on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

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On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

You’ll know how it’s going or going to go an hour or so before I do. 

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My forecast is now calling for 3-6" or more starting late PM and ending early Sunday afternoon. This from my local forecaster just in. He added the possibility of possibly getting more than 6". Roughly from M-59 North. I guess he is seeing the south trend and going also w/ the American models.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

Our neighbor used his snowblower this morning. I’m half tempted to use mine just to get a chance to move it …

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but it’s on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

Yeah there have been too many of these storms pulling this behavior this season. Here hoping that our subforum can pull in some more winter fun. 

D624AB62-6FC3-4018-83AF-201879424A4E.png

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3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Under a good band now. Huge flakes. 22 degrees and Saturday snow. love it

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands.  

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I'm probably closing in on 2 inches.  It should end soon and stay shut off for much of the afternoon as the lift shifts to northern Iowa.  We may get another inch this evening as the tail pulls through.

I figured the GDPS and Euro, which were the two models showing the heaviest snow down highway 30, through Cedar Rapids, were too far south, and they were.  The GFS had the right idea, hanging out in the middle of the model range.  I see the 12z Euro, which initialized before it began snowing here, shifted the heavier band north to hw20 where it should have been in the first place.

image.thumb.png.2a164c2f70d3839a4efb717c0d13b25c.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Picked up just a hair over 1" and an even stronger band about to move in...

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

 

 

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

They weren't lying that there was going to be a ridiculous cut-off to the south..I'm gonna head out and take some vids.  That 30-35 DBZ band is heading right towards ORD...

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