1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[DSM WeatherNut]

Radar/Nowcasting seems to be more south as well.  Guess we will see.

[Bumblin Bman09]

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202301280940-KLOT-WWUS43-WSWLOT
 

nws Chicago sticking with the 2-6”.  Looking closer to 4-6” in the Northern Lake county.  I hope it pans out. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202301280940-KLOT-WWUS43-WSWLOT
 

nws Chicago sticking with the 2-6”.  Looking closer to 4-6” in the Northern Lake county.  I hope it pans out. 

I like the trends in the 00z Suite of Global models...I like where you sit and the wild card will be how much the Lake can bump up totals.  I'm seeing a good signal for some lake enhancement and also a lake plume that could hug the shores of NE IL well into Sun afternoon.  

0z Euro...

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...I must say, the GEFS/GEPS have not budged much over the past 3-4 days and have been very consistent.  Kuddos???  I like how the models are showing a longer duration event here as the wave strengthens late tonight into Sun.  Maybe @Clintoncan score??  @Stacsh @westMJim  @jaster220

 

 

 

[Tom]

Woah, LOT has some rather strong wording on the developing meso scale band over N IL and suggesting some spots could exceed 10"...

Quote

Both NAM and GFS cross sections through this f-gen band today are concerning for a number of reasons. First, despite differences in placement of the sfc low and sfc front and placement of model QPF, both NAM and GFS are surprisingly similar location of the f-gen. Second, unsurprisingly given the steep low and mid level lapse rates upstream, both GFS and NAM show large areas of negative saturated EPV (indicative of slantwise and/or upright instability). This instability is forecast to be favorably co-located with the strong ascent with ageostrophic vertical circulation associated with the f-gen band. Set-up looks pretty classic for an intense mesoscale snow band to develop over southern Wisconsin or far northern IL this afternoon into this evening. Final item of concern is that this f-gen band is progged to be nearly stationary for 8-12 hours. Given pwats of 150-175% of normal, if this band were to sit in one place for while, then it wouldn`t be hard to envision a band of >10" of snow.

 

IF, and big IF, the 12z Suite comes in farther south then LOT is saying they could upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings...

Quote

Conversely, if the band sets up
farther south, like the global models suggest, then day shift may
need to upgrade to winter storm warnings with much higher totals.

 

[Tom]

GEFS for the win???  0z EPS just caved...

 

 

0z EPS qpf totals...bullseye Lake county in N IL up through GRR... @Up_north_MI @Stacsh 

[Hawkeye]

It appears likely something in between the north and south models will be right for my area.  The short-term models have come south some, but still have me on the southern edge.  2-3" is a decent guess.  At least it's something.  There's nothing else in sight going forward.

[Tom]

06z Euro suggesting the meso scale banding to come into NE IL up through GRR...Trending very + and I think Upgrades are coming for the afternoon package. @Hawkeye@bud2380 Looking better also...

 

[jaster220]

@Tom Thx for all the maps. You look primo. After a rare bullseye here Wed, it's back to riding the southern cut-off edge over here per usual. It'd be great if we could get a solid 2" to dress-up our snowpack before we go CAD, but tbh I won't be holding my breath. Looks like you and GR Peeps will be the ones reporting w/photo and upgrades. Good luck!

Edit: yep

[MKEstorm]

Winter Storm Warning for my area, up to 10 inches expected. The MKX morning AFD mentions possible lake-effect snow into Sunday morning!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

As winds shift to the northeast this evening, lake effect snow is expected to begin from Sheboygan to Kenosha. With Lake temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (~3C) and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -10 C, our delta T`s will be good with the unidirectional boundary layer flow. This will be a big driver in enhancing the ongoing system snowfall. Late this evening, our delta T difference will grow and southern Wisconsin will be in the right rear quadrant of the the upper level (500mb) shortwave. This synoptic setup will only enhance the lake effect snowfall machine and it will keep snowfall ongoing further inland through tonight due to the upward momentum and decent mid level moisture. While snowfall will be ongoing, inland areas can expect snowfall rates to taper off by tonight.  As we head into the early morning hours Sunday, snow will gradually come to an end from west to east. Winds on the back side of the surface low pressure system will be slow to shift from the east-northeast to northerly which will keep lake effect snowfall ongoing into Sunday morning for the Lakeshore counties. Blowing and drifting snow in open areas can not be ruled out for this evening into early Sunday morning, as the northeast to north winds are expected to gust to around 25 mph following most of the snow accumulation.

 

 

[Bryan1117]

Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

[Niko]

FWIW: They were spot on w/ the last storm calling for 4-8"......

WinterCast

Saturday Evening - Sunday Morning

3 - 6 inches

Snow

 

Now...I'll take this and run....but, in any case, it is a very complicated scenario..I'd wait until today's cycle at 4pm for the latest. It can go from nothing to a WWA, or to WSW.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z Euro suggesting the meso scale banding to come into NE IL up through GRR...Trending very + and I think Upgrades are coming for the afternoon package. @Hawkeye@bud2380 Looking better also...

 

Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

[jcwxguy]

1 inch of snow overnight here in fremont, ne

[Niko]

I like the way the radar looks. I think its time to just look at radars for this.

@Tomthis snow is making a B-Line at yr pl. Looks moderate to even heavy.

Look out @westMJimand @Stacsh.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GEFS...I must say, the GEFS/GEPS have not budged much over the past 3-4 days and have been very consistent.  Kuddos???  I like how the models are showing a longer duration event here as the wave strengthens late tonight into Sun.  Maybe @Clintoncan score??  @Stacsh @westMJim  @jaster220

 

 

 

GFS has been consistent placing a very narrow band of accumulating snow across mby and now a few other models are jumping on.  Not much of a margin for error but I will gladly take it and it would likely stay for awhile.

[Hawkeye]

Now the HRRR/RAP/NAM are overdoing the snow here.  They are showing 1"/hr rate between 8-10am, but this stuff we're getting is pretty light, nowhere near the necessary rate.  Radar also shows the southern edge rapidly approaching, so I'm doubting we'll get more than 2".

[CentralNebWeather]

Nothing on radar, but we have these conditions. Light snow blowing down the street. North winds howling. Temps supposed crash in the coming hours. Still hoping for a couple inches.  We’ll see  

[WinterSquall23]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up

[CentralNebWeather]

12z RGEM. There is that band for you @Clinton

[FV-Mike]

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

[Hawkeye]

I measured 0.8" twenty minutes ago.  Pretty meager so far.

[Niko]

11 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up

It will be fun to watch where this boundary sets up. Dont trust everything you see so far. This thing might take more south trends and it already has been doing that. Even the NAM has been trying to do catch up. Stay Tuned!!

[WinterSquall23]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system was a pretty big flop here. Very sharp northern cutoff of the band to the point that we haven't gotten more than just light snow. I'm thinking we will end up with barely 2 inches, which will put us about one inch short of the record.

So close yet so far.

I think in Portland they are not going to get any snow, but the cold is settling in. It’s the famous use all the moisture before the cold gets there scenario.  Man that was frustrating live over there.  Glad you are doing good in the snow dept.  Just happy to see snow every year in this climate. 

[shakjen]

35 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

I am under that line right now and it is not that heavy. Actually its pretty light. Yesterday's line that moved through was way heavier.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian. 

[MKEstorm]

First flakes are now commencing

[Tom]

1 hour ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but its on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

[Tom]

First flakes flying...pixie dust so far but that band from the SW is approaching quickly...

[Tom]

On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

[Stacsh]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

You’ll know how it’s going or going to go an hour or so before I do. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

You’ll know how it’s going or going to go an hour or so before I do. 

Streets and sidewalks already covered with a light dusting of snow...that band is knocking on my door

[Niko]

My forecast is now calling for 3-6" or more starting late PM and ending early Sunday afternoon. This from my local forecaster just in. He added the possibility of possibly getting more than 6". Roughly from M-59 North. I guess he is seeing the south trend and going also w/ the American models.

 

[shakjen]

1 hour ago, shakjen said:

I am under that line right now and it is not that heavy. Actually its pretty light. Yesterday's line that moved through was way heavier.

That was a big nothing from that band that moved northeast. Barely a dusting. 

[james1976]

Woke up to see my IA home is in a warning now for 5-7"

[FV-Mike]

Steady snow atm

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

Our neighbor used his snowblower this morning. I’m half tempted to use mine just to get a chance to move it …

[BMT]

Coming down nicely out there.  Eye balling 2-3” so far.  Hopefully the snow keeps back building to the SW

[Tom]

Nice sized flakes coming down now...starting to accumulate nicely...

[Bellona]

Snow rates and dendritie size has really decreased over the last hour or so. If this is it, once again I'd be struggling to reach 4 inches. I'll take what I can. Hoping to score at least one 6+ storm before spring. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

I got some surprise  snow this morn 5 to 8 am  about 1"..  enough   to get the trucks rolling salting  and plowing.. been the oddest of all years..  only 13" for the season  but have  plowed and saltled between  6 to 9 times per commercial  account.  Kinda crazy!

[FV-Mike]

49 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nice sized flakes coming down now...starting to accumulate nicely...

Under a good band now. Huge flakes. 22 degrees and Saturday snow. love it

[WinterSquall23]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but it’s on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

Yeah there have been too many of these storms pulling this behavior this season. Here hoping that our subforum can pull in some more winter fun. 

[BMT]

Just measured 2.5” here. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Under a good band now. Huge flakes. 22 degrees and Saturday snow. love it

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands.  

[Tom]

Picked up just a hair over 1" and an even stronger band about to move in...

[Hawkeye]

I'm probably closing in on 2 inches.  It should end soon and stay shut off for much of the afternoon as the lift shifts to northern Iowa.  We may get another inch this evening as the tail pulls through.

I figured the GDPS and Euro, which were the two models showing the heaviest snow down highway 30, through Cedar Rapids, were too far south, and they were.  The GFS had the right idea, hanging out in the middle of the model range.  I see the 12z Euro, which initialized before it began snowing here, shifted the heavier band north to hw20 where it should have been in the first place.

[ChiTownSnow]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Picked up just a hair over 1" and an even stronger band about to move in...

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

 

 

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

They weren't lying that there was going to be a ridiculous cut-off to the south..I'm gonna head out and take some vids.  That 30-35 DBZ band is heading right towards ORD...

[Tom]

LOT upgraded Northern counties to warnings…