1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL

[tStacsh]

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

[CentralNebWeather]

18z RGEM. Maybe I can get a couple inches. 

[Ottawa CO, MI]

29 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Tough forecast a day out apparently.  

 

 

PRESENT FORECAST IS FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM   ROUGHLY MUSKEGON AND GRR OVER TO ALMA (ABOUT TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES   WIDE), BUT WILL LIKELY NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER   FORECASTS. AMOUNTS WITHIN THAT BAND COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 6-8",   WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS ON EITHER   SIDE OF THAT BAND WILL PROBABLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-5".

 

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT IF THE MORE NORTHERN NAM IS   CORRECT THAT A CORRIDOR CONTAINING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND   SLEET COULD SNEAK AS FAR NORTH OF I-96, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF   THERE. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM   ALTHOUGH SOME MIXY PRECIP FOR A TIME ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94   CORRIDOR.  

They seem confused...

[Hawkeye]

18z GFS is a tick north, chops a bit off the hw30 corridor.

 

 

[BMT]

Another storm, model consensus a couple days out that look favorable for mby, another rug pull, another dusting to an inch.  bring on spring

[Tom]

The high rez IBM GRAF shows 4.9” for ORD, 6-9” across the northern counties of IL into S WI.  Southern burbs 1-2”.  Wild cut-off.

[hlcater]

Fast asleep rn

[Stacsh]

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Have made it up to 37 so far.  Some melting going on, but the glacier is still intact with the massive piles and drifts looking good. Hoping for an 1-2" over the next few days, but most forecasts are very pessimistic on accumulations in our area.  

“Expect nothing… get nothing” - that’s my new motto with Winter storms going forward in Eastern Nebraska.

Might be a good idea for a signature for my profile haha!

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Looking good atm.  I’m dead center.  What could go wrong?   Great ratios too.  
 

That looks like almost every snow in 2021. Things looked good a day ago here, but now very sketchy whether we can get much if any snow. Funny how the high is forecasted to be the exact same 33F we had for Wednesday's storm. 

[Grizzcoat]

Just grasping at anything at this point and I realize its rather fruitless-- BUT-- the latest SREF did move rather far S for this close to the event---doubling the QPF at DSM and most other locations along I-80. Old vs. new run... Yeah I know.... :O)

 

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro also added a nearly a full tenth of QPF-- from .18" at 12Z to .27" at 18Z----  for DSM.

Latest HRRR is also heading S.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro-- 12Z vs 18Z-

[bud2380]

Wow. Huge improvement on the 18z euro. 

[Hawkeye]

As models went north, they got wetter.  As they are coming south, they're weaker.  I guess that makes sense.  I'll gladly take a bit weaker if I can get into the better snow band.

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR

[Grizzcoat]

NAM is S also. DSM area gained another tenth Qpf-- Granted this was from .01 to .02" to .12" or so-- but still. This trend is nice and maybe can continue throughout the event.

[BMT]

Lol.  Comical 

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM & 3kNAM

[Hawkeye]

The 00z FV3 has retreated north on the southern edge.

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS... a hair south

[Grizzcoat]

Getting the globals to come S-- but now Cam's are going back north. This has been more so than normal; a very odd storm to prog.

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro was a definite step back here and there appears to be a last minute jog to the SW with the heaviest totals on some 00z models but almost every model shows at least 3 inches. If that happens I consider it a win.

About that time to stop watching models and start watching radar!

[Stacsh]

Every model gives me 6 inches of snow or more at 10-1.   Winter weather advisory for 4-7 inches of snow.  

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC just appears too robust in it's QPF-- has .08" for  KDSM  by 6am -- that is highly suspect. But it has been highly consistent and is now showing decent snows late SAT PM.  Seems other guidance is starting to latch on to the idea of this been a longer duration event than first thought.

[jaster220]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z GFS

The 18z Euro is on its own with the snow band centered along hw30.  The storm will probably look something like the GFS.

For here, it's the opposite in that it shows much more on the southern edge. I think every other model showing only +/-2"

[Hawkeye]

00z UK... a bit south, but on the weak end of the model range.  It's too bad the real juice in far northeast Nebraska couldn't continue across Iowa.

[james1976]

I'd love to be at my IA home tomorrow but can't win em all. Good luck to everyone in the path. I'll shovel it next week! Haha

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro

[DSM WeatherNut]

Radar/Nowcasting seems to be more south as well.  Guess we will see.

[Bumblin Bman09]

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202301280940-KLOT-WWUS43-WSWLOT
 

nws Chicago sticking with the 2-6”.  Looking closer to 4-6” in the Northern Lake county.  I hope it pans out. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202301280940-KLOT-WWUS43-WSWLOT
 

nws Chicago sticking with the 2-6”.  Looking closer to 4-6” in the Northern Lake county.  I hope it pans out. 

I like the trends in the 00z Suite of Global models...I like where you sit and the wild card will be how much the Lake can bump up totals.  I'm seeing a good signal for some lake enhancement and also a lake plume that could hug the shores of NE IL well into Sun afternoon.  

0z Euro...

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...I must say, the GEFS/GEPS have not budged much over the past 3-4 days and have been very consistent.  Kuddos???  I like how the models are showing a longer duration event here as the wave strengthens late tonight into Sun.  Maybe @Clintoncan score??  @Stacsh @westMJim  @jaster220

 

 

 

[Tom]

Woah, LOT has some rather strong wording on the developing meso scale band over N IL and suggesting some spots could exceed 10"...

Quote

Both NAM and GFS cross sections through this f-gen band today are concerning for a number of reasons. First, despite differences in placement of the sfc low and sfc front and placement of model QPF, both NAM and GFS are surprisingly similar location of the f-gen. Second, unsurprisingly given the steep low and mid level lapse rates upstream, both GFS and NAM show large areas of negative saturated EPV (indicative of slantwise and/or upright instability). This instability is forecast to be favorably co-located with the strong ascent with ageostrophic vertical circulation associated with the f-gen band. Set-up looks pretty classic for an intense mesoscale snow band to develop over southern Wisconsin or far northern IL this afternoon into this evening. Final item of concern is that this f-gen band is progged to be nearly stationary for 8-12 hours. Given pwats of 150-175% of normal, if this band were to sit in one place for while, then it wouldn`t be hard to envision a band of >10" of snow.

 

IF, and big IF, the 12z Suite comes in farther south then LOT is saying they could upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings...

Quote

Conversely, if the band sets up
farther south, like the global models suggest, then day shift may
need to upgrade to winter storm warnings with much higher totals.

 

[Tom]

GEFS for the win???  0z EPS just caved...

 

 

0z EPS qpf totals...bullseye Lake county in N IL up through GRR... @Up_north_MI @Stacsh 

[hawkstwelve]

It appears dry air on the northern side of the band will infact have an effect on totals. You can see it on radar and NWS FSD mentioned it in their morning AFD. Hopefully I can still hit that 3 inch mark by the end of the weekend.

[Hawkeye]

It appears likely something in between the north and south models will be right for my area.  The short-term models have come south some, but still have me on the southern edge.  2-3" is a decent guess.  At least it's something.  There's nothing else in sight going forward.

[Tom]

06z Euro suggesting the meso scale banding to come into NE IL up through GRR...Trending very + and I think Upgrades are coming for the afternoon package. @Hawkeye@bud2380 Looking better also...

 

[jaster220]

@Tom Thx for all the maps. You look primo. After a rare bullseye here Wed, it's back to riding the southern cut-off edge over here per usual. It'd be great if we could get a solid 2" to dress-up our snowpack before we go CAD, but tbh I won't be holding my breath. Looks like you and GR Peeps will be the ones reporting w/photo and upgrades. Good luck!

Edit: yep

[MKEstorm]

Winter Storm Warning for my area, up to 10 inches expected. The MKX morning AFD mentions possible lake-effect snow into Sunday morning!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

As winds shift to the northeast this evening, lake effect snow is expected to begin from Sheboygan to Kenosha. With Lake temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (~3C) and 850mb temperatures around -7 to -10 C, our delta T`s will be good with the unidirectional boundary layer flow. This will be a big driver in enhancing the ongoing system snowfall. Late this evening, our delta T difference will grow and southern Wisconsin will be in the right rear quadrant of the the upper level (500mb) shortwave. This synoptic setup will only enhance the lake effect snowfall machine and it will keep snowfall ongoing further inland through tonight due to the upward momentum and decent mid level moisture. While snowfall will be ongoing, inland areas can expect snowfall rates to taper off by tonight.  As we head into the early morning hours Sunday, snow will gradually come to an end from west to east. Winds on the back side of the surface low pressure system will be slow to shift from the east-northeast to northerly which will keep lake effect snowfall ongoing into Sunday morning for the Lakeshore counties. Blowing and drifting snow in open areas can not be ruled out for this evening into early Sunday morning, as the northeast to north winds are expected to gust to around 25 mph following most of the snow accumulation.

 

 

[Bryan1117]

Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

[Niko]

FWIW: They were spot on w/ the last storm calling for 4-8"......

WinterCast

Saturday Evening - Sunday Morning

3 - 6 inches

Snow

 

Now...I'll take this and run....but, in any case, it is a very complicated scenario..I'd wait until today's cycle at 4pm for the latest. It can go from nothing to a WWA, or to WSW.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

06z Euro suggesting the meso scale banding to come into NE IL up through GRR...Trending very + and I think Upgrades are coming for the afternoon package. @Hawkeye@bud2380 Looking better also...

 

Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

[jcwxguy]

1 inch of snow overnight here in fremont, ne

[Niko]

I like the way the radar looks. I think its time to just look at radars for this.

@Tomthis snow is making a B-Line at yr pl. Looks moderate to even heavy.

Look out @westMJimand @Stacsh.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

06z GEFS...I must say, the GEFS/GEPS have not budged much over the past 3-4 days and have been very consistent.  Kuddos???  I like how the models are showing a longer duration event here as the wave strengthens late tonight into Sun.  Maybe @Clintoncan score??  @Stacsh @westMJim  @jaster220

 

 

 

GFS has been consistent placing a very narrow band of accumulating snow across mby and now a few other models are jumping on.  Not much of a margin for error but I will gladly take it and it would likely stay for awhile.

[Hawkeye]

Now the HRRR/RAP/NAM are overdoing the snow here.  They are showing 1"/hr rate between 8-10am, but this stuff we're getting is pretty light, nowhere near the necessary rate.  Radar also shows the southern edge rapidly approaching, so I'm doubting we'll get more than 2".

[CentralNebWeather]

Nothing on radar, but we have these conditions. Light snow blowing down the street. North winds howling. Temps supposed crash in the coming hours. Still hoping for a couple inches.  We’ll see  

[WinterSquall23]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Keeps it all snow here in Macomb and moderate as well.

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up