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1/28 - 1/29 Weekend Snowstorm - Plains/MW/GL


bud2380

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This system was a pretty big flop here. Very sharp northern cutoff of the band to the point that we haven't gotten more than just light snow. I'm thinking we will end up with barely 2 inches, which will put us about one inch short of the record.

So close yet so far.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.
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I measured 0.8" twenty minutes ago.  Pretty meager so far.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Going to be a photo finish in Oakland county again.  It’s interesting that our county always seems to be the battlefield when it comes to setups like these.  Near M59 it can be a winter wonderland whereas south of I96 it can be different with just snow in the air or a mix.  I am thinking maybe 2 inches here. 
 

Below is a good example of the battleground for snow setting up

AFA2CF92-B8F2-4228-A688-FDA82C11F300.png

It will be fun to watch where this boundary sets up. Dont trust everything you see so far. This thing might take more south trends and it already has been doing that. Even the NAM has been trying to do catch up. Stay Tuned!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system was a pretty big flop here. Very sharp northern cutoff of the band to the point that we haven't gotten more than just light snow. I'm thinking we will end up with barely 2 inches, which will put us about one inch short of the record.

So close yet so far.

I think in Portland they are not going to get any snow, but the cold is settling in. It’s the famous use all the moisture before the cold gets there scenario.  Man that was frustrating live over there.  Glad you are doing good in the snow dept.  Just happy to see snow every year in this climate. 

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35 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

I am under that line right now and it is not that heavy. Actually its pretty light. Yesterday's line that moved through was way heavier.

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1 hour ago, FV-Mike said:

Quick update from LOT on a heavy band approaching.

 

While there could be Advisory-level impacts with this band it
should be on a short time interval. So an SPS has been issued and
a timing graphic will be shortly noting snow coated roads and
sharply reduced visibility. This looks to arrive in the south
Chicago metro around 11-11:30 AM.

This band will slow and expand and become part of the main snow
event this afternoon into tonight. Am growing concerned, similar
to previous shift, that a band could produce significant snowfall
and that may extend into the northern tier of counties in the
CWA. We will continue to analyze forecast data and adapt to
observational trends and conceptual models, and if high enough
confidence, upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Also the mixed bag
of precip potential south of I-88 will likely warrant an Advisory.

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but its on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

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On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

On the way back from the gym this morning, the skies had that "look" and "feel" that a snow storm was brewing.  It's been a while since I've been able to enjoy a weekend snow system that has cold air entrenched prior to the storm.  

You’ll know how it’s going or going to go an hour or so before I do. 

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1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

You’ll know how it’s going or going to go an hour or so before I do. 

Streets and sidewalks already covered with a light dusting of snow...that band is knocking on my door

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My forecast is now calling for 3-6" or more starting late PM and ending early Sunday afternoon. This from my local forecaster just in. He added the possibility of possibly getting more than 6". Roughly from M-59 North. I guess he is seeing the south trend and going also w/ the American models.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

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1 hour ago, shakjen said:

I am under that line right now and it is not that heavy. Actually its pretty light. Yesterday's line that moved through was way heavier.

That was a big nothing from that band that moved northeast. Barely a dusting. 

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3 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Woke up this morning to 1/2” inch of freshly fallen snow, as much of a winter wonderland as we can get outside around here. Our local season snowfall total is now close to 7” (making a VERY slow jog towards double digits for the season).
 

This pattern just keeps on delivering… the pain.

Our neighbor used his snowblower this morning. I’m half tempted to use mine just to get a chance to move it …

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Snow rates and dendritie size has really decreased over the last hour or so. If this is it, once again I'd be struggling to reach 4 inches. I'll take what I can. Hoping to score at least one 6+ storm before spring. 

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I got some surprise  snow this morn 5 to 8 am  about 1"..  enough   to get the trucks rolling salting  and plowing.. been the oddest of all years..  only 13" for the season  but have  plowed and saltled between  6 to 9 times per commercial  account.  Kinda crazy!

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This is the type of day time snow event that keeps you at the edge of your seat trying to reel in the heavy band!  Keeps things interesting throughout the day watching the radar.  Not to mention, but it’s on a Saturday!  Good luck to all on here today.

Yeah there have been too many of these storms pulling this behavior this season. Here hoping that our subforum can pull in some more winter fun. 

D624AB62-6FC3-4018-83AF-201879424A4E.png

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3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Under a good band now. Huge flakes. 22 degrees and Saturday snow. love it

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands.  

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I'm probably closing in on 2 inches.  It should end soon and stay shut off for much of the afternoon as the lift shifts to northern Iowa.  We may get another inch this evening as the tail pulls through.

I figured the GDPS and Euro, which were the two models showing the heaviest snow down highway 30, through Cedar Rapids, were too far south, and they were.  The GFS had the right idea, hanging out in the middle of the model range.  I see the 12z Euro, which initialized before it began snowing here, shifted the heavier band north to hw20 where it should have been in the first place.

image.thumb.png.2a164c2f70d3839a4efb717c0d13b25c.png

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

The back building just south of I-80 is perfect…hope it continues for us up here…the last band dropped viz less than 1/2 mile with big dendrites.  Should be a fun day watching the snow come down.  Roads are slick!  Everyone is trying to hurry up and do their weekend errands. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Picked up just a hair over 1" and an even stronger band about to move in...

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

 

 

I am JUST missing out on that stronger band.  About 10 miles south of you in Darien

They weren't lying that there was going to be a ridiculous cut-off to the south..I'm gonna head out and take some vids.  That 30-35 DBZ band is heading right towards ORD...

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A winter storm warning was just issued for the Michigan side of the lake.

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.

* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.
Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-
Ionia-

* WHEN…Until 10 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Inch per hour snowfall rates are possible
for a time tonight.

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

My forecast is now calling for 3-6" or more starting late PM and ending early Sunday afternoon. This from my local forecaster just in. He added the possibility of possibly getting more than 6". Roughly from M-59 North. I guess he is seeing the south trend and going also w/ the American models.

 

This looks pretty darn good fwiw. I may still get hosed but we finally get a system with favorable timing at night. That can't hurt.

0600z.gif.50eab7c038ad8c541fa5a681f6028143.gif

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Heavy stuff just started here.  Looks to move out after an hour or so.  Hopefully it backfills later this evening and rips throughout the early overnight.   Don’t think we get to the top end of 8 inches though.   That would be north of here.  Definitely a win for the NAM at least in Michigan.  

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Interesting afternoon. We drove to Kearney at 1 pm for a basketball tournament. Low to 0 visibility at times on Highway 183 north between here and I80 in falling and blowing snow. Saw a 5 vehicle accident right after it had occurred on I80. Got to Kearney for the game. Left there at 4:30 and Just got home. Harrowing. Blowing and falling snow with very low to 0 visibility in places and other places 100% ice/snow packed. Now the snow is really coming down at 10 degrees. There are several foot drifts across streets on the edge of town as the wind is blowing over 40 mph. 

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