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Let's discuss about the persisting drought/ridge of California.

Also... Weather for California in general.

 

I posted this on westernusawx regarding the ridge's behavior. All it takes is for one of these factors to switch neutral at least.

 

"The new discovery I just made is that the PDO has been at its lowest since 1977... The beginning of the "warm PDO episodes". I also read about the AMO and its effects to the west coast. If the AMO strives at a positive, it brings drier weather from WA to Socal. If negative, the contrary.

 

 

No, I doubt this winter will top off a thrusting storm or two. The PDO + AMO, the top dry factors I see are aligned... And their negative/positive levels are quite deep. With the -PDO and +AMO aligned, the ridge will constantly repair itself.

 

 

If a PDO is negative, a pool of higher height anomalies forms in the North Pacific. By combining the +AMO, that pool of high height anomalies has shifted to the GoA. That's why that ridge won't leave."

 

 

In addition to these decadal oscillations, QBO is in the westerly phase at the moment. Very soon, it will approach the easterly phase.

 

 

As we know, the developing +ENSO will *finally* replenish the west.

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Let's discuss about the persisting drought/ridge of California.

Also... Weather for California in general.

 

I posted this on westernusawx regarding the ridge's behavior. All it takes is for one of these factors to switch neutral at least.

 

"The new discovery I just made is that the PDO has been at its lowest since 1977... The beginning of the "warm PDO episodes". I also read about the AMO and its effects to the west coast. If the AMO strives at a positive, it brings drier weather from WA to Socal. If negative, the contrary.

 

 

No, I doubt this winter will top off a thrusting storm or two. The PDO + AMO, the top dry factors I see are aligned... And their negative/positive levels are quite deep. With the -PDO and +AMO aligned, the ridge will constantly repair itself.

 

 

If a PDO is negative, a pool of higher height anomalies forms in the North Pacific. By combining the +AMO, that pool of high height anomalies has shifted to the GoA. That's why that ridge won't leave."

 

It seems Ninos also have a harder time forming under a strong -PDO

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I posted into the long-range thread in regards to the CFS/Euro weeklies.  It does look like the ridge goes bye-bye at day 11-15.  I'm wondering how many years it will be until the AMO drops to neutral and then eventually, negative.  The combination of a -PDO & -AMO would seem favorable to either cold + precip...but I guess we'll see.  I will say that if +ENSO develops this summer as the CFS indicates...then Cali should see quite a bit more precip coming in next years wet season.

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All;

 

For updates on current conditions, see:

 

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl.

 

The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there.

P R I S M

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It is a very warm dry day across Socal with temperatures currently in the low-mid 80s in many areas of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Diego counties. The Santa Anas are quite strong in some areas, not as strong in other areas. Here in Orange the wind was not blowing much this afternoon but it just started up as I was typing this post.

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Guest Azmordean

It is a very warm dry day across Socal with temperatures currently in the low-mid 80s in many areas of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Diego counties. The Santa Anas are quite strong in some areas, not as strong in other areas. Here in Orange the wind was not blowing much this afternoon but it just started up as I was typing this post.

 

Hey, I know you from Weather West and Open Snow :).  It has been extremely warm even up here in the Bay Area.  70s yesterday, same today.  San Jose set a record yesterday with 75.  Just absolutely bizarre for here.  Average is upper 50s this time of year, so we're around +15 compared to average - just crazy.

 

I'm tired of this warm, dry weather.  I'm an East Coast guy who just moved here 1.5 years ago and I still miss real seasons... the average weather here is boring enough, this is downright awful.  And so dusty and brown.  That said, I'm going to try to do some hiking over the MLK weekend.  I figure if it's going to be this warm I may as well get outdoors and stop looking at the depressing models for a while.  And maybe get a first hand look at how bad things are up in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

 

I still think we'll see some rain in FEB and MAR, though I'd be surprised if either month is above average for precip (MAR has the better chance of that, esp if El Nino starts developing).  I just have to think the ridge will break down at some point for at least a little while - it can't stay all winter without blinking, can it?  Though I guess we're already in uncharted territory, so who knows.  I feel like the overall PDO and AMO patterns just make us more reliant than ever on ENSO events for decent rainfall.  So hopefully we'll get a reprieve with an El Nino next winter, but I'd expect the overall trend to remain dry until the PDO / AMO change.

 

At this point I'd be happy with an 8" rain year, sad to say.

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I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this winter the driest on record as well. I'm so desperate that I'm wondering if the ridge was controlled using man-made technology (high doubts though).

 

I just want an undespicable low to shove that ridge and splash us with drenching downpours.

 

I'm thinking that March, being the typical transition from winter to spring, should start convectional storms (especially with much increased ENSO percentages). The La Nina pattern (that has been making most of the weather in 2013-early 2014 miserable) should be replaced by a more of an El Nino pattern by spring :)

 

As accurate as the Ecmwf is, it can't predict as far as a month with accuracy. So, yes. Spring is when the FUN begins.

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I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this winter the driest on record as well. I'm so desperate that I'm wondering if the ridge was controlled using man-made technology (high doubts though).

 

I just want an undespicable low to shove that ridge and splash us with drenching downpours.

 

I'm thinking that March, being the typical transition from winter to spring, should start convectional storms (especially with much increased ENSO percentages). The La Nina pattern (that has been making most of the weather in 2013-early 2014 miserable) should be replaced by a more of an El Nino pattern by spring :)

 

As accurate as the Ecmwf is, it can't predict as far as a month with accuracy. So, yes. Spring is when the FUN begins.

 

I have been wondering whether all of the industrial pollution and horrible smog from China's rapidly growing economy is possibly modifying the weather patterns in eastern Asia, which, in turn, is possibly is influencing the persistent ridge downstream (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge or RRR) in some manner that is causing it to be constantly reinforced to the extent that is as of late.

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Hey, I know you from Weather West and Open Snow :).  It has been extremely warm even up here in the Bay Area.  70s yesterday, same today.  San Jose set a record yesterday with 75.  Just absolutely bizarre for here.  Average is upper 50s this time of year, so we're around +15 compared to average - just crazy.

 

I'm tired of this warm, dry weather.  I'm an East Coast guy who just moved here 1.5 years ago and I still miss real seasons... the average weather here is boring enough, this is downright awful.  And so dusty and brown.  That said, I'm going to try to do some hiking over the MLK weekend.  I figure if it's going to be this warm I may as well get outdoors and stop looking at the depressing models for a while.  And maybe get a first hand look at how bad things are up in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

 

I still think we'll see some rain in FEB and MAR, though I'd be surprised if either month is above average for precip (MAR has the better chance of that, esp if El Nino starts developing).  I just have to think the ridge will break down at some point for at least a little while - it can't stay all winter without blinking, can it?  Though I guess we're already in uncharted territory, so who knows.  I feel like the overall PDO and AMO patterns just make us more reliant than ever on ENSO events for decent rainfall.  So hopefully we'll get a reprieve with an El Nino next winter, but I'd expect the overall trend to remain dry until the PDO / AMO change.

 

At this point I'd be happy with an 8" rain year, sad to say.

 

Welcome to the Western Forums! I recognize you from Open Snow and Weather West as well. These are the three places in which I post about weather most frequently.

 

Since you moved out here, you have been experiencing one of CA's driest times that I have ever seen. I have lived in Socal my entire life, and while it is normal to have long dry periods down here, it is much more rare for your area. I have seen a few years in the past down here that have followed a similar very dry pattern and they have almost all turned wetter in February onward, except for 1991 in which we had the "March Miracle".

 

It was very warm here in Socal to the point it was almost hot, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, which is ridiculous for mid January. The Santa Ana winds have been blowing here quite a bit since Sunday night.

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Welcome to the Western Forums! I recognize you from Open Snow and Weather West as well. These are the three places in which I post about weather most frequently.

 

Since you moved out here, you have been experiencing one of CA's driest times that I have ever seen. I have lived in Socal my entire life, and while it is normal to have long dry periods down here, it is much more rare for your area. I have seen a few years in the past down here that have followed a similar very dry pattern and they have almost all turned wetter in February onward, except for 1991 in which we had the "March Miracle".

 

It was very warm here in Socal to the point it was almost hot, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, which is ridiculous for mid January. The Santa Ana winds have been blowing here quite a bit since Sunday night.

Norcal has been as dry as Socal since December, and, strangely enough, it is hot enough to leave my outdoor walks summer-like. This ridge is so strange I wish a trough were this odd.
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This has been a very long lasting Santa Ana event here in Socal, especially in the more wind-prone areas such as where I live. The wind started blowing on Sunday night and has continued for this entire week for the most part, except for some brief lulls at times. It has been extremely warm here in Orange with highs in the mid or upper 80s the last couple of days. There have even been a few reports of it reaching 90, but I don't think it has reached that in my backyard. The last three nights or so have been incredibly warm at my location with the wind and have been in the low-mid 70s! It has actually been warm enough to go outside in shorts at night, almost unheard of this time of year. This nighttime warmth has been highly localized, though, and has been mostly confined to the more wind-prone areas such as where I am located. For example, late last night it was in the low 70s here in my part of Orange, but at the same time Fullerton was 51, Miramar NAS (San Diego) was in the upper 40s, and Temecula was 46.


Fire activity had been very low here in Socal despite the incredibly dry conditions and windy weather this week, and for most of the season for that matter, but that changed last night with the brush fire near Glendora and Sierra Madre, which has burned about 5 homes the last I heard.


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Clearly if we are already getting fires that are burning homes this time of year there are serious problems to come. It will only get worse and by next fall things will really be primed for fire.

 

That certainly is true. The brush is as dry or even drier than it normally is during early fall when the hot variety of Santa Ana winds usually come up. We desperately need a change in this pattern to a much wetter and snowier one for the West Coast ASAP. Not only has it been dry, it has been a mind-numbingly boring "wet" season so far here in Socal and I am really getting tired of it, especially after being so dry the second half of last season on top of this.

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As we know, the developing +ENSO will *finally* replenish the west.

 

I think a Nino is the most likely, but not a lock yet.  We are currently in the biggest SOI spike in weeks (maybe months) and Nino 3.4 was -0.5 on the last update.  It's also worth considering the 1976-77 drought was during a Nino.  I think your drought will end, but it may be something other than a Nino that will do it.  A major pattern shakeup is well advertised now so you might do better in Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.

 

 

Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase! :D

 

 

PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!

 

 

It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.

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Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.

 

 

Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase! :D

 

 

PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!

 

 

It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.

 

We are overdue for a wet pattern this season. If it somehow stays bone dry through the end of March, that would be unprecedented.

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... Record high minimum temperature yesterday at Sandberg... 

... Record January streak of 80-degree days extended today at Santa 
Maria Airport... 

... Record for most 80-degree days in the month of January tied at 
Santa Maria Airport... 

a record high minimum temperature of 54 degrees was set at Sandberg 
CA yesterday... January 17th. This tied the old record of 54 set in 
1976.

The high of 83 today at Santa Maria Airport was one degree shy of 
the record high of 84 degrees set in 1971. However... this was the 
6th straight day with highs of 80 or above at Santa Maria Airport... 
extending the record set yesterday for consecutive days at or above 
80 degrees in January. The old record for January was 4 consecutive 
days with highs of 80 or more from January 26th-29th 1931. 

In addition... the 6 days with highs of 80 or more so far this month 
at Santa Maria Airport tied the record with January 1976 for the 
most 80-degree days for the month of January. Records for Santa 
Maria Airport began in 1906.

During this streak of warmth at Santa Maria... the highest January 
temperature ever recorded at that station occurred on Thursday at 89 
degrees. In addition... ..The highs of 87 degrees observed Wednesday 
and yesterday tied for the 2nd warmest January day ever along with 
January 13 2009. In other words... from Wednesday through Friday this 
week... three of the four warmest January days ever recorded at Santa 
Maria occurred.

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Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.

 

 

Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase! :D

 

 

PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!

 

 

It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.

This isn't an El Nino. Nino 3.4 is at -0.5 and we have had six straight days of +20 or above SOI readings. You can get active weather without a Nino.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Alright, so when I observed the latest gfs ensemble, I had to *finally* not look at 384 hours, but 360 hours. This means the jet flow that has been appearing in the long-range for California is beginning to validate more! Will this pattern continue to keep up? Here's an image from the 06z gfs:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/20/06/GFS_3_2014012006_F360_PCPIN_96_HR.png

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I know how ridiculous this winter has become by reminders like crickets at night.  The pets have fleas.  Lowest minimum so far this month is 52; [seven overnights: 60's].  Last measurable moisture was .42 on Dec 19.  Rain year total: 1.34  

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I know how ridiculous this winter has become by reminders like crickets at night.  The pets have fleas.  Lowest minimum so far this month is 52; [seven overnights: 60's].  Last measurable moisture was .42 on Dec 19.  Rain year total: 1.34  

 

Welcome back, but I forgot where you're from.

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First post in a while, and first one on new format.

 

Relentless offshore flow and hilltop location in Tujunga has resulted in a totally dry January running about +11 degrees above 20-year average thus far, with more crazy warm weather to come this week.

 

Had to run a/c the other day, and even long-established landscaping is suffering from drought.

 

This "winter" really is one for the books.

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I just ran across an article from the NY Times stating that filthy emissions from China's export industry are contributing to our air pollution in the western U.S., including California:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/world/asia/china-also-exports-pollution-to-western-us-study-finds.html?_r=0

 

This is making me more curious whether it is possible that the pollution from China may be indirectly or directly modifying the weather patterns in the North Pacific in some way.

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I think the ridge could weaken early February allowing some precipitation, but it really is difficult forecasting that far out.

 

I think the pattern is going to change by the beginning of February because the west coast is due for a change to wetter conditions. Even the Pacific NW has been much drier than average this fall and winter. It would be unprecedented if the pattern remained dry all the way til the end of March.

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Never fear and not know what it coming .. .I am here now ... Details will never be the same again ...

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Thanks, I have surgery in a week so I have to be put down.  Hope I wake up lol.  At least the weather is boring so I can recover.

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It seems California will receive rain soon.

 

Boy I sure hope so! I am really getting tired of this very dry pattern, especially after it has been going on since last winter. I am becoming increasing worried about our water situation going into the spring and summer months and also am worried that mandatory water restrictions are going to implemented soon if we don't turn wetter.

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Well...

 

I laugh at scientists. Prediction scientists.

 

In 2010,they said that record upper-low was a preview of what was to come. Did anything else more powerful happen? No.

 

Now they claim this drought is just the beginning. It will get way worse.

 

Nope. Looking at tree rings won't solve anything. Our pattern has shifted and we won't look back in the past that far. I think we're going through a dry phase, and this "alignment" so to speak will soon not be aligned any longer.

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Well...

 

I laugh at scientists. Prediction scientists.

 

In 2010,they said that record upper-low was a preview of what was to come. Did anything else more powerful happen? No.

 

Now they claim this drought is just the beginning. It will get way worse.

 

Nope. Looking at tree rings won't solve anything. Our pattern has shifted and we won't look back in the past that far. I think we're going through a dry phase, and this "alignment" so to speak will soon not be aligned any longer.

 

Part of the problem right now is that we are in a -PDO, +AMO, ENSO neutral regime, which has brought very dry winters to CA in the past such as the late 50's to early 60's. Socal is usually more affected in this pattern, but San Francisco had very dry winters in 1958-59 and 1960-61 as well. What is unusual this time around is that far Norcal and the Pacific NW, including southern BC, all have been rather dry as well, when they usually are wetter. The more widespread dry conditions are making me wonder if there is something else contributing to this dry pattern this year.

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We're in a cold phase ... We will go into a warm phase toward 2020

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We're in a cold phase ... We will go into a warm phase toward 2020

 

I wonder what effect the extreme solar minimum coming up will have on that.  Apparently there is substantial evidence that El Ninos are much less common during solar grand minimums.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I am thinking Cal will score somewhere in the Feb 10 to Feb 15 time frame. The block which is going to set up over the GOA and Arctic will be a high amplitude / higher latitude affair. That should easily allow westerlies to undercut the block by that time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Undercutting has been almost nonexistent the last 2-3 years, since the 2011-12 season, except for some very weak systems that have managed to slip in under the ridge. The -PDO, ENSO neutral combo is at least partly to blame, and very weak MJO activity has likely been another factor this year along with the ridge being just a bit too far south. I am really hoping you are right that we get something significant in the 2nd week of February because we desperately need it. It seems that CA has been about as dry as the Atacama Desert in Chile this season so far!

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We might be getting rotating thunderstorms Thursday in the Northern-Sacramento Valley zones. The sun is peaking at heating this time of winter, generating convective energy. A second shortwave cold front will enter North California Thursday morning, and there's enough of wind shear aloft, very cold upper-air, warm surface air due to intense solar heating, CAPE values, - lifted index, and moisture. But there's a catch. The second cold front must move out by 12 P. M. to 3 P. M. This allows warm/hot air underneath the very cold pool of air to intensify, and bursting into supercellular development. Later another system moves in and the possible supercellular event fades away. If the cold front leaves too early, there won't be enough convection, so time is key.

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