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California Drought-Weather Discussion


Utrex

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We're in a cold phase ... We will go into a warm phase toward 2020

 

I wonder what effect the extreme solar minimum coming up will have on that.  Apparently there is substantial evidence that El Ninos are much less common during solar grand minimums.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I am thinking Cal will score somewhere in the Feb 10 to Feb 15 time frame. The block which is going to set up over the GOA and Arctic will be a high amplitude / higher latitude affair. That should easily allow westerlies to undercut the block by that time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Undercutting has been almost nonexistent the last 2-3 years, since the 2011-12 season, except for some very weak systems that have managed to slip in under the ridge. The -PDO, ENSO neutral combo is at least partly to blame, and very weak MJO activity has likely been another factor this year along with the ridge being just a bit too far south. I am really hoping you are right that we get something significant in the 2nd week of February because we desperately need it. It seems that CA has been about as dry as the Atacama Desert in Chile this season so far!

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We might be getting rotating thunderstorms Thursday in the Northern-Sacramento Valley zones. The sun is peaking at heating this time of winter, generating convective energy. A second shortwave cold front will enter North California Thursday morning, and there's enough of wind shear aloft, very cold upper-air, warm surface air due to intense solar heating, CAPE values, - lifted index, and moisture. But there's a catch. The second cold front must move out by 12 P. M. to 3 P. M. This allows warm/hot air underneath the very cold pool of air to intensify, and bursting into supercellular development. Later another system moves in and the possible supercellular event fades away. If the cold front leaves too early, there won't be enough convection, so time is key.

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The air quality here in Socal has been really lousy the last 3 days with a mixture of smog / fog or whatever, and has just been plain ugly. I am ready for a change to wetter weather, which we have a chance of tomorrow and into Friday morning, but nothing like a classic mid-winter storm down here. It is certainly good to see Norcal getting some much needed rain and snow, but unfortunately, it looks as if it will be dry again next week and I certainly hope it doesn't stay dry again for weeks on end like it was earlier this month.

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I hope this works out for you guys, a dry California evokes visions of "Escape From LA"

 

.01" fell here in Orange last night with about 5-10 minutes of rain, which is also the monthly total for January. A very poor month for rainfall, indeed. The last measurable rain here was way back on December 19. I surely would like to see the storm depicted on that model run posted above to verify, but it is still 10+ days out and anything could change before then.

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(.. connected to post just above.)

Recent NWS WFO "Weather Stories", related.

http://www.proxigee.com/a-will_storm_door_open-t.jpg
Storm door

http://www.proxigee.com/b-final_numbers-days_without_precip-t.jpg
Days without precip.

http://www.proxigee.com/c-outlook_ncal-t.jpg
Current outlook N Ca

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

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Article on the drought with some troubling photos.

This year fire season look scary.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/30/california-drought-effects-500-years_n_4647529.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

 

Hoping the best for you all for rain. I know our drought height was horrible. We are better but not out of the woods totally.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Sacramento more specific.  Certainly noteworthy.
 
SPECIAL WEATHER/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
202 PM PST SAT FEB 1 2014

.. A PLETHORA OF RECORDS SET IN SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT
JANUARY 2014 DURING THIS HISTORIC DROUGHT...

JANUARY 2014 RE-WROTE THE RECORD BOOKS IN SACRAMENTO. HERE ARE
THE HIGHLIGHTS, MANY RECORDS NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN THE CAPITAL
CITY.

1. LONGEST DRY PERIOD DURING THE RAINY SEASON (NOV-MAR)
FROM DEC 7, 2013 TO JAN 29, 2014, 52 DAYS. THE OLD RECORD
WAS 44 DAYS FROM NOV 15, 1976 TO DEC 28, 1976 (MEASURABLE RAIN)

2. THE THIRD DRIEST JAN IN HISTORY SINCE 1850 WITH 0.20 INCHES
DATING BACK TO SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION RECORDS.

3. JAN PRECIPITATION ENDED WITH 0.20 INCHES. NORMAL IS 3.97 INCHES.
THIS IS ONLY 5 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

4. JAN 2014 BROKE HIGHEST AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH 66.1
DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 62.1 DEGREES SET IN 1976. AVERAGE
MONTHLY MAXIMUM ONLY 55.1 DEGREES.

5. NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF JAN SET ON JAN 24, 2014
OF 79 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 74 DEGREES ON JAN 31,1976.

6. JAN 2014 BROKE THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AT 7 DAYS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 6 DAYS
SET IN 1976.

7. TIED THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER WITH 3 DAYS IN JAN FROM JAN 23, 2014 TO
JAN 25 2014. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS JAN 29, 1976 TO JAN 31, 1976.

8. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET ON 12 DIFFERENT DAYS IN JAN 2014

JAN 1....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1887.
JAN 2....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1940.
JAN 3....66 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 64 SET IN 2012.
JAN 7....65 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 2012.
JAN 15...69 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2003.
JAN 16...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1991.
JAN 18...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1976.
JAN 20...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1976.
JAN 23...71 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1948.
JAN 24...79 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 7O SET IN 1984.(ALL-TIME)JAN
JAN 25...74 DEGREES....BREAKS RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1899.
JAN 28...70 DEGREES....TIED RECORD SET IN 1984.

9. EVERYDAY IN JAN 2014 THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, NORMAL HIGH RANGE IS 53 TO 57 DEGREES.
JAN 2014 WAS 57 TO 79 DEGREES.

10. FINALLY, WE ARE HOPING FOR A FABULOUS FEB 2014. ALL-TIME RECORD
FOR RAIN IN FEB IS 10.30 INCHES SET IN 1986.

HAVE A NICE WEEKEND !

SPECIAL NOTE: SACRAMENTO STATICAL DATA WAS USED DUE TO ITS
LENGTHY HISTORY FOR RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1849 FOR PRECIPITATION
AND 1877 FOR TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DID BREAK RECORDS, BUT DUE TO THE
DETAILED DATA BASE FOR SACRAMENTO DETAILED INFORMATION WAS
VERIFIED.

$
POWELL

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I'm surprised nobody is talking about the decent rainfall shown for today on the 0z GFS.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking thru the data, I see warm Januarys don't mean warmth the rest of winter and as dry. Only 2003 was warmer with monthly average mean temp of 66.5F.  It rained once and I was astonshed to get 0.03 since the ground is so dry. 

 

Jan Data

 

Aver Max: 76.3 [Norm: 69F

Aver Min: 56.3 Norm: 51F

Hi max: 90 Lo max: 63

Hi min: 66 Lo min: 52 

 

Jan Rain: 0.03  Rain Total [jul-jun]: 1.37

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Looking thru the data, I see warm Januarys don't mean warmth the rest of winter and as dry. Only 2003 was warmer with monthly average mean temp of 66.5F.  It rained once and I was astonshed to get 0.03 since the ground is so dry. 

 

Jan Data

 

Aver Max: 76.3 [Norm: 69F

Aver Min: 56.3 Norm: 51F

Hi max: 90 Lo max: 63

Hi min: 66 Lo min: 52 

 

Jan Rain: 0.03  Rain Total [jul-jun]: 1.37

A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

 

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2014020212_F192_38.5000N_121.5000W_HODO.png

 

 

If I'm correct, this hodograph is signalling explosive supercellular development here in Sacramento…

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A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

 

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

 

As of this very moment it is raining in a widely isolated shower.  59F; it feels great.

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A 66.5 average in Jan? Wow!!

 

We have many summers that don't get a month that warm. Isn't there rain in Cal today?

 

It is currently raining in northern and central CA right now, including San Francisco. We are forecast to get some decent (for the season) rainfall later tonight and into tomorrow and Orange County coastal zones may receive between .25" and .45".

 

EDIT: This event underperformed badly here in Orange and I only received a measly .05" from it.

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http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2014020212_F192_38.5000N_121.5000W_HODO.png

 

 

If I'm correct, this hodograph is signalling explosive supercellular development here in Sacramento…

That is only part of the puzzle, most certainly won't happen.

<p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br>

TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br>

SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br>

SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br>

TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br>

TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p>

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I am pending a Thunderstorm Watch or Mesoscale Discussion for Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego ...

<p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br>

TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br>

SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br>

SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br>

TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br>

TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p>

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Let's hope this hold.   
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

...LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THEN A WET STORM THIS
WEEKEND...

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
(INCLUDING FOOTHILLS) DUE TO SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

* FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND COVERAGE.

* TIMING AND STRENGTH: THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS BEING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND SNOW LEVELS
IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
6000 FT.

 

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/sto.php#tabs

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Let's hope this hold.   

 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA

318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-

BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-

CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-

CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-

MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-

CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-

NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-

WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-

WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-

318 PM PST MON FEB 3 2014

...LOW ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY THEN A WET STORM THIS

WEEKEND...

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS

(INCLUDING FOOTHILLS) DUE TO SNOW THIS WEEKEND.

* FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS. LOW

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND COVERAGE.

* TIMING AND STRENGTH: THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS BEING LIGHT TO

MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND SNOW LEVELS

IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO

EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE

VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER

6000 FT.

 

http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/sto.php#tabs

It will likely become true.

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There is this thing called "Weather Karma", or so I'd like to call it. It's when dry periods are replaced with wet periods. Long dry periods are followed by long wet periods.

 

 

In case you haven't noticed, the big ridge that causes havoc for the west US is gone. We're already beginning our transition, and the abnormally dry past few years will quickly have karma take effect, thus bringing long times of rain.

 

Rain quickly rushed in after the 1976 drought, bring above-normal precipitation for two years.

 

 

We will see a drastic change very soon.

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There is this thing called "Weather Karma", or so I'd like to call it. It's when dry periods are replaced with wet periods. Long dry periods are followed by long wet periods.

 
An ultimate balancing out of precip. received by any area more temperate perhaps then. ?
 

In case you haven't noticed, the big ridge that causes havoc for the west US is gone. We're already beginning our transition, and the abnormally dry past few years will quickly have karma take effect, thus bringing long times of rain.

 
Temporarily, leastwise.  And, inline with what thinking more substantive. ?
 

Rain quickly rushed in after the 1976 drought, bring[ing] above-normal precipitation for two years.

 
To be more accurate, the 1976-7 drought.  / Calling into question just where we might be if or where comparing then to now. (?)
 

We will see a drastic change very soon.

 

 I'll allow for a more cautious optimism only, myself.
 
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Surprised nobody's raving about the pineapple express we're about to have!

Norcal is going to see a good deal of much-needed rain out of this. There has been off and on light rainfall here in Socal this afternoon and tonight from a storm that moved ashore last night. However, this upcoming Pineapple Express is not going to affect Socal because there is a low amplitude ridge off the Socal coast.

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I already did rave about it days ago -

 

For parts of: Northern California from San Fransisco North to Crescent City and across the Redding and Sacramento Valley areas …
 

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Flood Watch effective Thursday through this weekend …
 

Issued:  2/4/2014 at 7:10pm PST
 

Discussion:  A series of storms will hit the area starting Thursday, with the strongest over the weekend as the atmospheric river aims Northern California for some much needed rainfall.  The strongest storm hits over the weekend and end totals from Thursday through Monday will be beneficial, with 1-2″ in the valleys of Sacramento, 4″+ for Redding, and 4-5″+ for Crescent City to Fort Bragg where the highest rainfall totals will be.  San Francisco may get 1-2″ of rain, but the strongest impact of this atmospheric river will be north of there.

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2414f-1000x666.jpg

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<p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br>

TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br>

SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br>

SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br>

TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br>

TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p>

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So far, so good here where I am. 
 
A quarter of an in an hour looked at more generally, since just after noon 
 
Wx Underground's, main history and graph for a local station near to me for today to this point. 
 
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCAPARAD2&month=2&day=7&year=2014
 
.. Chico, "down the hill" from, and to the east of where I am, not having faired quite as well with having gotten more separated periods of rain, apparently, with this first wave.
 
  The three main translated Metars, generated hourly, showing rain. In reverse chronological order, most recent to earlier in the day.  Strongest earlier mid-afternoon apparently.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/metars_chico-140207.jpg
 
http://aviationweather.gov/adds/metars/
 
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&loop=no&rid=bbx
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=bbx&product=NTP&loop=yes

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Not too promising for more rain in SoCal this weekend unlike the northern part of the state.  But the weather has been cool and moist.  Recorded 7 consecutive days below 70F; more than the entire month of January.  Also mostly 40's minimums this week while there were none last month.  Coolness helps keep soil moisture levels from reaching fire alert levels.  January seemed like one long santa ana event.

 

Feb rain: 0.38

Rain total [jul-jun]: 1.75

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I am absolutely fed up with the fact that we can't seem to get any meaningful rainfall in Socal so far this winter, after an ultra dry season last year especially from January onward. Every storm that has passed through here so far has brought .5" or less of rainfall and that occurred back in late November with a total of .37". There is no meaningful rainfall in the forecast down here for the next 7 days aside from some possible drizzle tomorrow night into Monday morning. I am, however, glad to see Norcal getting significant rain and snow where it is desperately needed, but I would like to see some of that down here as well. Norcal has really been at the epicenter of this drought compared to what the normally see.

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For SoCal, this week will look like a continuation of a bad dream per NWS_LA:

 

"LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
  LONG TERM FCST LOOKS VERY DULL AND RATHER UNCHANGING. EAST PAC RIDGE 
  TO THE SW WILL KEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD WITH 582 DM HGTS. 
  WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND NEUTRAL FLOW FROM/TO THE EAST. 
  LOOK FOR FOUR SIMILAR DAYS IN ROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE 
  NORMAL TEMPS."
 

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