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February 2023 Observations and Discussions


Iceresistance

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It's going to start with a BANG!

@Andie, be vigilant for the possibility of an Ice Storm that could occur to end January and to start February. I also must be absolutely prepared for this as well.

Other members that could get this.

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4 @Clinton

 

I'm going to start February's Observations with this.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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41 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It's going to start with a BANG!

@Andie, be vigilant for the possibility of an Ice Storm that could occur to end January and to start February. I also must be absolutely prepared for this as well.

Other members that could get this.

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4 @Clinton

 

I'm going to start February's Observations with this.

Ysah. That period from the 1st to the 5th around the south is going to be sketchy in some places. I think we still have some evolution on that latter storm in the modeling. 

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The start of FEB and the entire month still very much up in the air...

Dec. 12th through the 15th featured one of the biggest storms in this year's LRC. Come FEB. 1st-2nd, that would be 50 days from that.(this year's LRC cycle) So, the operational model runs are showing that storm burying itself way down in Mexico. I'm not sure I bye that quite yet. This storm was a monster back in Dec. Blizzard warnings in the northern Plains for 4 days!! KC had 1-1.5 inches of rain, a very wet storm! I buy a further south track this time of year, but not that far south. 

Next up would be the coast to coast arctic plunge and the pre Christmas storm due to cycle around FEB. 11th. 

Both these storms produced here in KC for both cycles, we're about to find out if cycle 3 is going to do the same thing.

BTW, today will mark the first day that KC will have below average temps in 29 days. WOW!!

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1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

The start of FEB and the entire month still very much up in the air...

Dec. 12th through the 15th featured one of the biggest storms in this year's LRC. Come FEB. 1st-2nd, that would be 50 days from that.(this year's LRC cycle) So, the operational model runs are showing that storm burying itself way down in Mexico. I'm not sure I bye that quite yet. This storm was a monster back in Dec. Blizzard warnings in the northern Plains for 4 days!! KC had 1-1.5 inches of rain, a very wet storm! I buy a further south track this time of year, but not that far south. 

Next up would be the coast to coast arctic plunge and the pre Christmas storm due to cycle around FEB. 11th. 

Both these storms produced here in KC for both cycles, we're about to find out if cycle 3 is going to do the same thing.

BTW, today will mark the first day that KC will have below average temps in 29 days. WOW!!

The CMC may be starting to figure it out but I would expect something further NW than what it's showing.  The Euro also starting to pick up on the blocking today.  I'm ready to get this show on the road.  Go Chiefs!

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The tanking -EPO ALWAYS wrecks havoc in the modeling and I would expect to see some whacking runs in the coming days.  I could see it cutting off if it were Spring but not necessarily during the peak time in winter when the flow is still strong.

I like the -AO showing up and the neutral NAO...

image.png

 

 

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The coming winter threat will be interesting and long lived, spanning Jan 30-Feb 2nd. Of course the GFS would have you believe nothing is going to happen but most guidance is showing a good pattern for ice. Positively tilted trough, partially cut off low, and an  arctic high over the central Plains. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

The coming winter threat will be interesting and long lived, spanning Jan 30-Feb 2nd. Of course the GFS would have you believe nothing is going to happen but most guidance is showing a good pattern for ice. Positively tilted trough, partially cut off low, and an  arctic high over the central Plains. 

0z EPS...getting close to you and looking a lot better for @Clinton

image.png

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Here is what I wrote for the TSA AFD about the storm threat.

Quote
Attention will then turn to a prolonged risk of wintry
precipitation. As the large scale trough responsible for the
initial cold intrusion amplifies, a portion of the upper level
energy will pinch off with a closed low forming over the Desert
Southwest. A strong subtropical jet will round the base of this
trough, phasing with the polar jet over the central Plains. This
will place Oklahoma and Arkansas under the broad right entrance
region of a powerful 150 kt 300 hPa jet Monday-Tuesday. Meanwhile,
as the parent trough becomes detached from the closed low and
ejects eastward, upper level heights will rise with strong isentropic
lift over the residual arctic air, which will be stubborn to
retreat due to a northerly surface pressure gradient. Meanwhile, a
series of 850-700 hPa trough axes will develop and focus
precipitation across the area beginning Monday. Although the
timing and placement of these features remains quite uncertain, we
will outline the key features and details.

Beginning Monday afternoon, the first weak feature will likely
move through the area. Most model guidance agrees on the existence
of this feature, but disagree on the exact location and intensity.
Warm and moist southwesterly flow in the 700-850 hPa layer will
already be increasing the temperature such that the precipitation
type is uncertain. But as it stands now any precipitation in
southeast OK would favor a mixture of freezing rain and sleet,
while a mixture of sleet and snow would be more likely in
northeast OK and northwest AR. I will reiterate again, that these
details will likely change, but at least for now this system does
not appear likely to produce much precipitation, regardless of
the variety of precipitation.

Additional warm advection and a second stronger mid level wave
result in another wintry mess on Tuesday. Some model guidance,
such as the GFS show a weak and suppressed system, with no real
risk of additional wintry precipitation for northeast OK, with
only a marginal risk for some freezing rain for southeast OK and
northwest AR. The CMC paints a swatch of heavy freezing rain for
SE OK and NW AR with significant sleet for much of NE OK. The
ECMWF also shows freezing rain for SE OK, with a swath of sleet
in the middle of the state, but more snow for NE OK. There is
even more variety of solution types within the ensemble systems
for each of these models. It is probably sufficient to say that
wintry precipitation of some type is favored for much of the area
Tuesday, but significant details remain to be worked out in the
coming days. Additionally, the longer warm advection continues,
the more likely a transition to ice or even rain.

At some point Wednesday or Thursday the cut off low over the
Desert Southwest will begin to be swept up by the westerlies and
be carried through the area. Depending on the track this may
result in one final round of wintry precipitation but there is no
point in getting too concerned with the finer details just yet.
So to summarize, Monday through Thursday will likely feature a few
rounds of precipitation, with multiple precipitation types
possible. The most likely day for impactful weather appears to be
Tuesday. Tranquil weather resumes towards the weekend.

 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The coming winter threat will be interesting and long lived, spanning Jan 30-Feb 2nd. Of course the GFS would have you believe nothing is going to happen but most guidance is showing a good pattern for ice. Positively tilted trough, partially cut off low, and an  arctic high over the central Plains. 

 

1 hour ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...getting close to you and looking a lot better for @Clinton

image.png

0z CMC showing a lot of ice over Oklahoma coming in multiple rounds and cuts off the low.  I agree with Tom that the cut off low scenario seems weird for this storm.  I feel like there is something with this storm I'm forgetting or missing.  Is it possible the models are to far south with the artic high?

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

0z CMC showing a lot of ice over Oklahoma coming in multiple rounds and cuts off the low.  I agree with Tom that the cut off low scenario seems weird for this storm.  I feel like there is something with this storm I'm forgetting or missing.  Is it possible the models are to far south with the artic high?

There's a lot of initial inertia south and the cold air will be quite intense so I think a more suppressed track is favored. The thing that will limit the southward push will be the low cutting off as it starts to increase 500 hPa heights. It's a balancing act. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It seems to me that the ECMWF has been trending a bit towards more of a cut off low. The more that occurs the less winter weather occurs for the southern great plains. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS 13Z Blend for the next 10 days.  I'll I will say is that I'm glad we got our big storm last week.  What a horrible looking pattern going forward for most on here, especially those that keep getting missed on snow chances.

NWS Blend 10.png

Yep finally getting some cold and after this weekend, desert conditions settle in.  

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1 minute ago, sumweatherdude said:

At this point, I say bring this on.  Better this than 38 and dry.  My kids will play outside, we can go fishing and we can have people over to sit out by the fire pit on cool, but not cold, nights.  

 

image.thumb.png.ff778475750d040b35fceb332a99f562.png

Got a new Blackstone grill.  I would pay money for this to be true.  

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yep finally getting some cold and after this weekend, desert conditions settle in.  

WAW, no CAW this winter!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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BIG battle in the MJO as we head into the early part of FEB.  Who will win?  JMA says "I'll take a break and settle in Phase 3 for a while"...meanwhile, GEFS takes into the warm Phase 4/5/6....and the Euro into the NULL phase but some members are hinting at Phase 4.  I remember @Clintonmentioning the JMA won a big battle the last time so let's see how the models trend as we move into the 1st week of FEB.  

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

image.png

 

Here are the temp composites for FEB...

Screen Shot 2023-01-28 at 5.38.47 AM.png

 

 

Another part to this equation that is not helping push the cold south is the spike in both the AO/NAO into + territory, however, the spike in the EPO, albeit brief, is showing signs of heading neutral and even back into - territory.  

My LR call is for a return of the NW NAMER Ridge (-EPO) Week 2 of FEB.  Based on the location of the warming at both 10mb/50mb starting JAN 12th on the animation below, as I've used this technique in the past, I believe that the LR models will being to show more ridging across western Canada/Alaska.   :et's see if it works out this time around.

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

 

image.png

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Lets see if this can come more north next week.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/PatNexWeek27Jan3p-1.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

At this point, I say bring this on.  Better this than 38 and dry.  My kids will play outside, we can go fishing and we can have people over to sit out by the fire pit on cool, but not cold, nights.  

 

image.thumb.png.ff778475750d040b35fceb332a99f562.png

Bring on the torch in February… ready to stick a fork in Winter early again this year!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Week 2 of FEB, attn turns towards a SW Flow pattern and increased chances for Snow across the Heartland of the Nation. #STJ #BigDog...is there another Big Dog or Long Duration storm looming 8th-10th??

image.gif

JMA won that battle and won it big as we had one of the warmest Januarys on record.  I won't go against it until it gives me a reason not to.  Todays run shows a stalled MJO in 3 with some ensembles working back toward a phase 2.

JMAN.png

Great week 2 analysis, with February right around the corner the AO and NAO become a big factor for weather in the heartland.  I hope we can change this over the next few days, KC seems to require a lot of things to go right to get a big snow and a -AO and -NAO are 2 of them.  Please block it up and flip this.

1674885600-NjE2lDRJzFwgrb2.png

1674885600-VZNY3jYN39sgrb2.png

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2 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Looks like the extended is going to freeze this wet snow into a glacier. 

It is looking like a dry, frigid next week, but weather changes everyday, so ya never know down the road. But yes, it will be a glacier out there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You know something, the pattern setting up from Week 2 and into Week 4 is going to set up a friggin' battle zone smack dab through the Heartland of this Nation.  My goodness, there is quite a fight among the global models as they try to figure out the pattern in the LR.   There is going to be an Arctic connection along with a SER which should create a frontal boundary somewhere from the TX Panhandle up through the GL's region. 

The trends in the CFSv2 are "Seeing" the cold bleed south and the warmth build over the SE...  

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202302.gif

 

Wet, wet, wet....someone is going to get buried on here...some will be very upset as the snows disappear.  The "haves and have nots"....nevertheless, it's going to get busy starting around the 7th/8th of next week.

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202302.gif

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Looks like some convective sleet will fall here tomorrow morning with a risk of thunder. ZR should mostly stay south of me. Another round moves through on Tuesday with a sleet/zr risk once again. Still watching for one last storm on Wed-Thurs. Probably stays south of me but could get one last glaze out of that if cold air holds on. 

So 3 mediocre ice chances that might add up to a little something at least! 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m confused. I thought there was supposed to be a “big dog” to start off February? There was even talk of another GHD blizzard part 3 or something.

Was thinking the same thing. So we got about 6” of wet snow just north of Detroit a few days ago. Where is this “active” pattern for the beginning of February? If you’re turned on by flurries and maybe an inch or two of snow…well…I’ll stop there, lol.

Give me a storm to remember. Otherwise it’s just child’s play!!!

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For those wondering why the storm that was anticipated for early Feb is not materializing?  You can thank the tanking -EPO and +AO/+NAO that caused a suppressed storm track.  The storm is showing up, on schedule, but is taking the southern route and NOT phasing with the northern branch.  What coulda been...

 

image.png

 

image.gif

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