Jump to content

February 2023 Observations and Discussions


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

This pattern sure looked promising a week ago. But that changed fast. Even the arctic outbreak that was so heavily modeled this week had been muted dramatically.  A couple of below normal days and then back to normal or even above normal again. No snow in sight sadly. This winter may rival 2012 for least snow around here. With this latest round of 1.5” I think I might be at 10” for the season. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks to be a brutal start to this workweek, but, its brief. A dramatic boost in temps by the weekend, which means, in my area, back to above normal temps, or maybe slightly above. The storm on the 7th and 8th looks to be  mix as for now. Hopefully, it will be ll snow. We will see how that turns out. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Looks to be a brutal start to this workweek, but, its brief. A dramatic boost in temps by the weekend, which means, in my area, back to above normal temps, or maybe slightly above. The storm on the 7th and 8th looks to be  mix as for now. Hopefully, it will be ll snow. We will see how that turns out. 

I think one thing we got going for us is the 6+ inch glacier from all the wet snow we have had.  We might just survive the bump in temps for a while..  well hopefully..  Any rate just thankful to have snow on snow.  Instead of rain on snow…. Big plus..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

I think one thing we got going for us is the 6+ inch glacier from all the wet snow we have had.  We might just survive the bump in temps for a while..  well hopefully..  Any rate just thankful to have snow in snow.  Instead of rain on snow…. Big plus..

I agree. 

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Past time for another Plains/MSP Special. This season is yet another in a string of "west of The Mitt" focused seasons. This may deliver less winter here than last year's lame showing.

  • Sad 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Past time for another Plains/MSP Special. This season is yet another in a string of "west of The Mitt" focused seasons. This may deliver less winter here than last year's lame showing.

Man, I'm sorry buddy. It'll flip. I know it will. I've been waiting 7 years for my winters to, it seems. These huge eastern ridges and Sze ridge mess stuff up a ton for both of us.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not gonna sugar coat it...the LR is trending abysmal for any winter weather around these parts and farther south.  The teleconnections are about as bad as they can get to flood warmth into the Easter CONUS.  +AO/+NAO/+EPO/+WPO/-PNA.  I'll be soaking up the scenery and the snow that I have OTG as much as I can before its gone by early next week.

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

image.png

  • Sad 3
  • Sick 1
  • Facepalm 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@hawkstwelveis going to cash in big time into the Upper MW and W GL's starting later next and throughout this month...I also think @CentralNebWeatherand with a bit of luck, the OMA/LNK crew will prob reel in a snow storm or two by months end.  The pattern for us farther east is no bueno until maybe late late month.  Unless the models start to show more blocking in the near term which is always a possibility, I'll be expecting to see warm cutters.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202302.gif

CFSv2.NaPrec.20230130.202302.gif

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful cold air in place for KC...but, no precip.!! Just not our season. I still had a good snow week last week with the overnight snow on Saturday and then the midweek storm, both storms had snow fall at night and at 32-33 degrees. I had 3 days of snow cover last week. I guess it was as good as it might get this winter. 

We did have 4 accumulating snows after FEB 10th last winter and a big snow around Feb. 17th. (7-9 inches of snow around town)

At least the Chiefs came through with a big win!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to our Met we received 1.3” of sleet and ice.  

With the ground frozen we have a forecast for as much as 1.5” of freezing rain tomorrow. DFW and a dozen counties west & SW are in that warning.  High will be around 26-28  

My husband said he cleared 3 1/2 to 4” of sleet off the car tonight when he came home. He works SW of our house.  
It’s been interesting   


 

  • Like 5

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome to February.  Yesterday was the coldest day of January 2023. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 18/2 there was 0.01” of precipitation and 0.1” of snow fall. The day had 53% of possible sunshine and was the sunniest day in some time.  Here in MBY the overnight temperature bottomed out a +7 and is now up to 13 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 51 was in 1968 and 1989. That 51 is the 2nd coldest record maximum at GR. The record low of -20 was set way back in 1899. The record snow fall of 8.8” was set in 2015.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This post is also in the January discussion.

It was a very mild January across Lower Michigan the mean of 31.5 at Grand Rapids was the 5th warmest January. At Lansing their mean of 32.2 is the 4th warmest. At Muskegon the mean of 34.1 is the 3rd warmest, at Holland the mean there of 33.2 is the 5th warmest. To the east at Detroit the January mean there of 33.5 is the 7th warmest. At Flint the January mean of 31.5 is the 6th warmest and at Saginaw the mean there of 30.9 is the 4th warmest. So all across southern lower Michigan January 2023 was one of the warmest of record in lower Michigan. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a rather nippy walk this morning (11F) but I enjoyed the cold air as it makes you feel alive.  The bright sunshine reflecting off the snow pack and producing a twinkle is the quintessential reason why I enjoy these winter mornings.  
 

A584C87C-BA07-43F1-B0B4-5C7167A7268D.jpeg

 

08A1B2E9-E27B-427F-88C3-56C64F9A22F1.jpeg

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Feb. 1st  storm for the central Plains ended up staying well south into Texas. Remember, this storm stranded truckers in the Dakotas for days on end...this go around, sunny skies there... Here in KC, 50 days ago in cycle two, KC received 1-1.5 inches of rain in the city, very wet storm. Here in cycle 3, we received ZERO! This is quite disappointing as this was one of our signature storms per the LRC for KC and we have cold air in place curenttly.  Did the LRC fail us, IMO, yes and no. The storm is still there, right on time, but, in a much further south spot. Can this be predicted, I don't know. For me, I was expecting a huge storm here in KC FEB 1st., give or take a few days. 

Dec. 15th to Dec. 27th was the coldest stretch of winter weather here in KC. 12/13 days were below average and this time frame is due back in Feb. 3rd, this Friday. However, we are forecasted to have much above average temps starting this weekend through what appears to be all next week. The total opposite of the Dec. 15th-27th period. Following that, KC, starting on Dec. 28th, had 28+ straight days of above average temps and mainly rain storms in Jan. 

Storms? 

Cycle two: Dec. 19th we had a small accumulating snow here in KC with more off to the NE of here. 

                     Dec. 22nd, artic air poured in and KC received 1-2 inches of snow with more off to the east and northeast. Remember, this storm did not DIG!! it was way to progressive..

                     Dec. 25th, clipper system produced little in KC but did produce accumulating snow in the northern plains through Iowa and off to the east of KC. 

                      Jan. 2nd, another big rain storm in KC, snow off to the NW. 

So, Feb. 7th should see a smaller storm in the Plains, followed by a bigger storm 2-4 days after that and a big storm around Feb, 21st to match the Jan. 2nd storm. 

The 6z GFS at face value, shows all of the above in the extended.....BUT, it seems to warm of a pattern to be a good snowy stretch for most on here. It does get colder towards the famous "10 days away saying" on this run. Let's hope the data trends colder as I believe we do have a great chance of a stormy FEB in the Plains according to the LRC. 

Again, here in KC, between Feb. 10th and March 10th last winter, we had (4) good winter events. I'll take that again!!!

It is still winter, you can still have hope now, you can't have hope in July as there is no chance of snow. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

La Nina weakening?  

Shooting the breeze with Lezak back in early Dec. he mentioned La Nina could fade late winter and we just might have a great finish  if that did indeed happens. I so remember him saying that. 

Come on snow, don't finish around 4-5 inches in KC and surrounding areas, do what you did last winter, finish strong!! I think I ended up with average snowfall with only around 5 inches total come Feb. 1st 2022

  • Like 4
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tom said:

It was a rather nippy walk this morning (11F) but I enjoyed the cold air as it makes you feel alive.  The bright sunshine reflecting off the snow pack and producing a twinkle is the quintessential reason why I enjoy these winter mornings.  
 

A584C87C-BA07-43F1-B0B4-5C7167A7268D.jpeg

 

08A1B2E9-E27B-427F-88C3-56C64F9A22F1.jpeg

Haven't had this look all winter long, we have just not had the cold in place at the right time. I may not have this look this winter....at all. Man, that would be super depressing. Still holding out hope as we still have 7-8 weeks of winter. NEVER GIVE UP!!

Glad you were able to score a nice winter stretch!!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

New York City measures 1st snowfall of the season

The Big Apple measured its first snowfall since March 9, 2022, Wednesday morning, ending the second-longest snowless streak the city has ever endured. At Central Park in Manhattan, where the city's official weather station resides, 0.4 of an inch of snow was measured at 5:30 a.m. EST, the National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed. "The snow that fell in New York City on Wednesday morning was due to just enough moisture in combination with a cold air mass to produce a light snowfall."

Hallelujah!!!!!

  • Like 2
  • lol 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True winter days here in S MI w/ a nice snowcover otg and very cold temps.

Hopefully some more snowstorms down the road, although, not looking too promising this week. Still, plenty of ol' man winter left.

  • Like 3
  • Sun 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno...GFS with something around the 9th...Euro says dry through the 11th....Sun issues start around the 15th of  Feb...winter ain't over, but sure isn't a harsh one. Going to be an early ice out...still only around 12-16" of ice on a lot of lakes...Should be 20"+ everywhere by now

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Below are some interesting snow stats for Chester County looking at the Top 25 seasons with the most snow through January 31st and Top 25 with the least snow through the end of January. I then included the total final snowfall for each of those seasons. So far this season we have the 6th least snow through this point in the season. To show you how unusually snowy the current century has been - 6 of the top 25 snowiest starts to winter have all occurred since 2000. Yet, only 2 times with this year being that year have we had a top 25 least snow through January start. This may give cause to pause for those that seem to think it used to snow more back when they were kids!

image.png.22c2b32b9409b6f71ea254488d8b7e04.png

  • Like 2

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A look at this current winter and the last few La Nina winters in KC.  Also a very troubling 50 year winter temperature trend.  From todays KSHB weather blog.

KSHB

KSHB

So are warmer winters our new normal? Winter is warming across the country - and it's warming fast. Climate change has begun to alter our seasons and this winter we are beginning to live in that new reality. In a recent study by Climate Central, the average Kansas City winter temperature has increased by by 3.7° since 1970, and this is right on trend with our January warmth.

Average Winter Temperature Kansas City

From Climate Central:

In their study they found:

  • Winter is warming everywhere: Winters have warmed in 97% of 238 U.S. locations since 1970.
  • Winter is warming fast: Winter was the fastest warming season for 75% of these locations. 
  • About 80% of locations now have at least seven more winter days above normal than in 1970.
  • In our warming world the coldest days aren’t as cold, and cold snaps are shrinking. 
  • Warming winters affect public health, water supplies, agriculture, and recreation.
  • Warmer temperatures can make winter storms more hazardous, with sleet and freezing rain.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

A look at this current winter and the last few La Nina winters in KC.  Also a very troubling 50 year winter temperature trend.  From todays KSHB weather blog.

KSHB

KSHB

So are warmer winters our new normal? Winter is warming across the country - and it's warming fast. Climate change has begun to alter our seasons and this winter we are beginning to live in that new reality. In a recent study by Climate Central, the average Kansas City winter temperature has increased by by 3.7° since 1970, and this is right on trend with our January warmth.

Average Winter Temperature Kansas City

From Climate Central:

In their study they found:

  • Winter is warming everywhere: Winters have warmed in 97% of 238 U.S. locations since 1970.
  • Winter is warming fast: Winter was the fastest warming season for 75% of these locations. 
  • About 80% of locations now have at least seven more winter days above normal than in 1970.
  • In our warming world the coldest days aren’t as cold, and cold snaps are shrinking. 
  • Warming winters affect public health, water supplies, agriculture, and recreation.
  • Warmer temperatures can make winter storms more hazardous, with sleet and freezing rain.

Nope just urban heat islands lol. JK.  The facts are facts.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

 Dec. 22nd, artic air poured in and KC received 1-2 inches of snow with more off to the east and northeast. Remember, this storm did not DIG!! it was way to progressive..

The GFS and CMC are beginning to hint at this around the 9th-11th, both are picking up on the artic air and the storm.  It will be interesting to see how they interact and who gets the white gold.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy Ground Hog's Day!  What will the legendary Punxsutawney Phil's prediction be for Spring?  As we wait and see what that prediction will be later this morning, our region is tracking the Polar Front that is making its was SE as the Polar Vortex makes its presence felt for...oh, just a day or so, as it brushes our area with frigid temps and winds to go along with it.  LES is likely for our SW MI peeps.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Happy Ground Hog Day! The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 26/10 there was a trace of snow fall. There is officially 6” of snow on the ground. There was 88% of possible sunshine for one of the sunniest days in some time. The overnight low here in MBY has been 16 and it looks like the official low was 18. At the current time it is clear and 17 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 31/18 and the record high of 50 was set in 2020. The record low of -11 was set in 1921. That record high of 50 is the coldest maximum for the year at Grand Rapids. The record snow fall of 11.1” fell in 2011.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Clinton said:

A look at this current winter and the last few La Nina winters in KC.  Also a very troubling 50 year winter temperature trend.  From todays KSHB weather blog.

KSHB

KSHB

So are warmer winters our new normal? Winter is warming across the country - and it's warming fast. Climate change has begun to alter our seasons and this winter we are beginning to live in that new reality. In a recent study by Climate Central, the average Kansas City winter temperature has increased by by 3.7° since 1970, and this is right on trend with our January warmth.

Average Winter Temperature Kansas City

From Climate Central:

In their study they found:

  • Winter is warming everywhere: Winters have warmed in 97% of 238 U.S. locations since 1970.
  • Winter is warming fast: Winter was the fastest warming season for 75% of these locations. 
  • About 80% of locations now have at least seven more winter days above normal than in 1970.
  • In our warming world the coldest days aren’t as cold, and cold snaps are shrinking. 
  • Warming winters affect public health, water supplies, agriculture, and recreation.
  • Warmer temperatures can make winter storms more hazardous, with sleet and freezing rain.

The only problem with this analysis is it only looks at the brief last 50 years during a warming cycle....when you go back another 80 years it shows the more cyclical nature with the warm 1930's and 1940's across much of the US. Below for example is actual climate data for all available long running stations in my County here in suburban Philadelphia with the decades from 1900 to 1980. There is clear warming since 1970 but when you look further back like below you can see all sites were in a cooling trend, The typical ebb and flow of warming and cooling become more evident. This warming is not going to last forever the next cooling cycle will no doubt be coming. image.thumb.png.166a07b0228b7d52daca603d82f46dd9.png

  • Like 5

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok folks, so there was a sudden rise in the STRAT temps at both 10mb/30mb....but is forecast to be brief, a legit "head fake" compared to what the models were suggesting over a week ago, however, they are now suggesting another major SSW by the middle of the month.  Will it happen this time?  Is this the reason why suddenly the CFSv2 is showing all this crazy blocking in both MAR and APR?  I think the models are definitely starting to see something they weren't a couple a weeks ago.  Bust out the popcorn.  Might be a "Fascinating Finish to FEB"...

 

pole10_nh.gif

pole30_nh.gif

 

 

image.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...