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February 2023 Observations and Discussions


Iceresistance

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There are still signs that winter won't be gone for all of February. 

I saw where Cosgrove thinks we're just in a break with more to come at the late part of the month. I agree. Going to be pretty  volatile in the south and east flank of our forum by months end. Setting up a wild spring.

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'd rather have torching and rainfall then continued weeks of CAD. Without and LES around here to freshen-up the covering, the snow here gets really bad looking, even without too many warm days. Snow is so fragile. It really is

I wouldn't imagine anyone really enjoys seeing their snow get darker every day even if there's a good amount of it. Its not really something I've ever had to deal with here. Haven't kept much in the way of snowcover the last few years. 

Back in 2011, the snow stayed beautiful here only because there was so much of it and it was like -27 somewhere in there. Lol. Hard to mess up snow at that temperature.

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Good morning!  So far this year there have been 30 days with a above average mean and just 6 days with a below average mean. Yesterday was that 30th day above. With a H/L of 39/29 there was a trace of snow fall yesterday with the cold front but before that there was 29% of possible sunshine. We are now starting our slow climb of average temperatures and the average H/L is now at 32/18. The record high for today is 54 set in 1938 and the record low of -9 was set in 1895 and 1977. The record snow fall of 8.1” fell in 2008. The next 5 days look to stay warmer than average and there will several periods of rain, so there should be a good amount of snow melt this week.

 

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There are still signs that winter won't be gone for all of February. 

I saw where Cosgrove thinks we're just in a break with more to come at the late part of the month. I agree. Going to be pretty  volatile in the south and east flank of our forum by months end. Setting up a wild spring.

The way the storms are digging into your region and the SSW that'll pop mid month, this will drive the jet south into MAR...just watch, you'll prob get your biggest snow in MAR!

0z Euro...current 10mb temp anomaly

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Day 10...is this the final warming??

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I may have been a little to quick on the development of the NW NAMER ridge in Week 2, but I think the models are now starting to head that way around the 15th-17th.  I see the GEFS and EPS starting to show the Alaskan Ridge firing up but we are going to have a hard time to press the cold south into our Southern and Eastern Sub bc of the lack of a -NAO and a dagger of a -PNA, however, that -NAO should pop late FEB around President's is my prediction.  Not only will it fire up, it appears that it will last well into MAR so don't put your snow shovels away just yet.

The way the warming shifts up towards NE Canada/Greenland late in JAN/early FEB is a LR signal to watch out for the Greenland/Baffin Bay Block post 20th-22nd of this month.

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CFSv2 showing a lot of dryness over Eastern Canada and that is a strong signal there will be High Pressure in this region. Mr. Geenland Block will be making an appearance...nice looking corridor of AN precip and cold temps through the Heartland of the Nation...

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202303.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202303.gif

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Our mild weather continues most of this week before we cool down to near normal by the weekend. Rain looks likely by Thursday morning with another chance on Friday night into Saturday.
The record high for today is 65.8 set in 2008. The record low is 6 below zero from 1895. Daily precipitation mark is the 3.00" that fell way back in 1896. Our daily snow record is the 12.3" that fell today back in 2010.
image.png.adc711bc7520613e4f12436afaa40c05.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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7 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Does this translate to surface features?  Seems like when I read about the PV, there's often discussion about whether the surface temps will actually be affected.  Thanks.

It is a trickle down effect…typically 2-3 weeks

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:P

329362075_466824285512258_83345310029537852_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It's officially 50F at ORD, southerly winds are pumping up a warm and Spring-like airmass out ahead of the CF that is approaching the area literally a 1/2 a county away.  It sure smells like a taste of Spring this morning. The snow depth yesterday was officially "0", which means ,that from Jan 25th thru Feb 5th we had at least 1" of snow OTG.  Sadly, it looks like we had our 11 days of "Winter".  ORD had a consistent snow cover throughout this period and will probably end up being the longest streak of the season.

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Latest Euro Weeklies support a cold finish to February and March.  Looks to be dominated by a phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO, and -WPO.  Where was this in Jan and the first half of February when it matters most.

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The 2nd half of this month should really bump up season snow totals for many out here from the Plains towards the GL's.  It's iffy how far south the cold bleeds post President's day.

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Good morning! Yesterday was a very nice early February day with lots of sunshine (77%) and one again mild temperatures with a official H/L of 36/24. There was no rain or snow before midnight and the day started with 3” of snow on the ground.  After the temperature dropped to 30 here last evening the temperature rose to the current reading here and at the airport of 43. There was some very light rain fall overnight. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 52 was set in 2009 and the record low of -15 was set in 1899. The record snow fall of 8.1” fell in 1933. The next 5 days continue to offer mild temperatures with a good chance of some heavier rain fall on Thursday. Still no cold air in the forecast.

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A mild week continues for Chester County with a chance of some showers overnight tonight. Temps should warm into the 50's Wednesday through Friday. There is a chance we could see some freezing rain across some of the far northern areas of Chesco into Berks and Lehigh counties if the rain arrives before rush hour. Colder air will follow for the weekend and we will track a developing coastal storm that could track close enough to give us snow later Sunday toward evening. Only the GFS American model currently shows significant snow with that model printing out over a foot of snow across Chester County. That said based on our seasonal trends this winter I suspect it will likely track off the coast to our south.
Records for today: High 61.3 (2008) / Low 2 below zero (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Record Snow 14.8" (1951)
image.png.178e24051ff4fb1b8b62b4c176892b08.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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 In terms of winter weather for the southern states I remain pessimistic on chances for the next 10 days with just too much warmth and low pressure to the north, limiting any cold potential to spill south.

Some signs that this could change in the 10-15 day period. EPS showing above normal pressure and below normal temperatures as a deep trough sets up where we've had the anomalous warmth. We will see if any systems can capitalize on it, but in most cases you need that in place down here to get any snow or ice. 

image.pngimage.pngimage.png

 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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ECMWF weeklies for the last week of the month showing that pattern change persisting, and the signal is still obvious even on the 1 month average well into March. 

Hard to say whether that means much in any given spot, especially further south, but I do think winter is not even close to done for the central plains and points north. 

image.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_30day-9097600.png

 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Warmuary looks to continue through at least the 15th here in SMI.   60 in my forecast for next week...

Yes, it will be very mild in the coming days. My temps could very well hit that 60F mark, if not, then, very close.. It does cool off in the latter part of the month, but nothing too drastic. Probably back to near normal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS keeps the Valentine rain event well S of IA. Quite a bit cooler also. Would be nice to have any snow we get stick around a little longer.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Spring is here! Its in the low 60's, cardinals and squirrels are stirring up a storm outside! 

Other than the occasional wind gust it's quite warm and pleasant. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Warmuary looks to continue through at least the 15th here in SMI.   60 in my forecast for next week...

Knew it was going to be warmer this week but wasn't expecting our 53F today already. After work noticed how most open areas are back to grass, but surprised at full snow hanging on in wooded areas. Certainly better with plenty of piles unlike the snowless 3.5 wks from New Years to the 22nd. 17 days of decent snow cover. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Knew it was going to be warmer this week but wasn't expecting our 53F today already. After work noticed how most open areas are back to grass, but surprised at full snow hanging on in wooded areas. Certainly better with plenty of piles unlike the snowless 3.5 wks from New Years to the 22nd. 17 days of decent snow cover. 

Yeah. My snowpack is barely dwindling.  Still have ice on my driveway.  Heavy rain will take care of it Thursday.  

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Good morning! Yesterday was one of those days when the high for the day happened early in the day 7AM Grand Rapids 4 AM Muskegon and the temperature slowly fell during the day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 45/33 There was just a trace of rain fall and no snow. There was a reported 2” of snow on the ground yesterday morning. There was no sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 23 the last reading at GRR was a warmer 25. For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 60 was set in 1925 and the record low of -12 was set in 1974 the record snow fall of 5.4” fell in 1952. The next 5 days continue to look more like March than February with temperatures near and above average during the period. There is a good chance of some heavier rain fall tomorrow and along with that some wind. We have a chance to see some sunshine over the weekend.

 

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Well, it looks like the JMA lost the battle in terms of the MJO as it caved to the GEFS/CFSv2 and heading into the warm Phase 4 instead of stalling out in phase 3 like it was suggesting.  Kuddo's to the American globals...the positive thing is that the amplification is minimal and it rotates through the warm phases quickly so that by mid month it's already into Phase 7/8.   Phase 7 has a stout SER which will set up the next Big ticket storm once the Valentines Day system tracks from the S Plains up into the S MW/OHV...yet another wasted storm in the works...BUT, there is HOPE, that a more interesting storm to eject out of the CO Rockies with Arctic Air readily available during the 15ht-17th timeframe.  

 

JMAN.png

 

0z EPS...

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Our overnight low was a warm 35.7 (normal is 22.1).  Our mild weather continues through Friday with closer to seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Our best rain chance looks to be tomorrow afternoon into the evening but not a wash out.
Records for today: High (64) 1965 / Low (4) 1895 / Precipitation (1.00") 1895 / Snow (10.0") 1895. Of note today in 1895 was the 2nd day of a 2-day snowstorm that began at 8am on the 7th and ended at 5am on the 8th with very cold temps being reported as the thermometer remain below 8 degrees fro the entire storm.
image.png.02af3bbfa7f3d68ea33cb94c5e60e35f.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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A nice soaker on the way. Winds could also be problematic w/ gusts to as high as 50MPH+ by the pm hr tomorrow. If this were to be snow, would have been  a 6-10inch snowfall. It stays AN throughout the extended stretch and maybe getting to near normal at some point. No arctic air in sight for now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Definite trend towards the southeast (and weaker) with time on the Valentines Day period low. Hopefully this trend continues and puts those of us who have had little snow in the sweet spot. There's enough cold air with it at least. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It’s 45* and has been thundering and pouring since about 2 this morning.  
I’ll ‘gestimate’ an inch of rain. Haven’t heard any totals and local sites are varying.
The course is currently a lake and rain forecast for another 4 hrs., (a good gauge for 1”+).  A lot of water on the roads which have been very slow going.  We’ll be glad for this soaker come summer.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

A nice soaker on the way. Winds could also be problematic w/ gusts to as high as 50MPH+ by the pm hr tomorrow. If this were to be snow, would have been  a 6-10inch snowfall. It stays AN throughout the extended stretch and maybe getting to near normal at some point. No arctic air in sight for now.

It’s going to get cold again. And probably snow at some point.   But dreams of “arctic” air coming for a sustained period is probably done.  

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Lots of potential storminess for next week.  Any moisture is welcome.  Sure liking the possibilities of the Feb. 15-17 storm as @Tommentioned earlier.  Even NWS Hastings has hinted at this, though it has been past their forecast period.  Sure looks like the Valentine's Day storm will be primarily rain and stay SE of here.  GFS then shows even more storms after this period.  Long time out, but at least there is hope for many on here to get rain or snow, or both.

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44* very chilly WNW wind 14-22mph.
No word on rain totals. It poured all night.  
Golf Course now open for fishing today!  
 

6D9E4706-6CB1-4374-87EF-C3F8FB057FD3.jpeg

C23A2F56-6369-430B-8837-1F93E3121E52.jpeg
These are not ponds, at least officially.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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