February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, it looks like the JMA lost the battle in terms of the MJO as it caved to the GEFS/CFSv2 and heading into the warm Phase 4 instead of stalling out in phase 3 like it was suggesting.  Kuddo's to the American globals...the positive thing is that the amplification is minimal and it rotates through the warm phases quickly so that by mid month it's already into Phase 7/8.   Phase 7 has a stout SER which will set up the next Big ticket storm once the Valentines Day system tracks from the S Plains up into the S MW/OHV...yet another wasted storm in the works...BUT, there is HOPE, that a more interesting storm to eject out of the CO Rockies with Arctic Air readily available during the 15ht-17th timeframe.  

 

 

0z EPS...

I expect to be in NMI from the 19th to the 22nd, so I'm hopeful that plays out. 

[Clinton]

Can KC continue the snowy trend?  The 2 top models showing a nice one around the 16th and 17th.  Lezak has been on the radio hyping this storm as one that will target KC and Chicago.  Look for the first piece of energy to cut while the second and stronger piece digs.

0z Euro

0z CMC

 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was a rather pleasant February day with an official H/L of 43/24 there was no rain or snow fall and the sun was out 63% of the time. Here in my yard the temperature fell to 31 last night before rising to the current temperature of 35 and at this time there is a cold rain falling. Today looks to be wet for at lest the start before a dry slot moves in and then back to rain later in the afternoon. The weekend looks cooler but still not cold and there is a good chance of sus for Saturday. Next week looks mild with another chance of rain.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Can KC continue the snowy trend?  The 2 top models showing a nice one around the 16th and 17th.  Lezak has been on the radio hyping this storm as one that will target KC and Chicago.  Look for the first piece of energy to cut while the second and stronger piece digs.

0z Euro

0z CMC

 

0z Euro Control...

 

The 0z EPS continues to develop a lot of High Pressure in the NE PAC and into the NW NAMER/AK region as well as the High Lat's as we get closer to President's Day...I think it's a matter of timing before this unloads into the Plains/Upper MW come the 20th.  You guys should be experiencing #RealWinter by this time and prob tracking multiple systems to close out the month of FEB.  The early JAN powerful storm is due right around President's Day and I think this has Big Dog written all over it.  This storm should then press the cold south into the rest of the Forum.  WInter's last hoorah???  I think so...might as well get it done now then in MAR.

 

I expect to see 2 strong storms to close out FEB, one during President's Day week and the other to close out FEB and open MAR.  We might actually track a storm to Open March...Like a Lion this year?  Let's see how this unfolds.

 

[Tom]

JMA weeklies for Week 2 showing the real deal arctic air straddling southern Canada and Upper MW region.  If the MJO and teleconnections could play ball....all systems will be on fire to produce a hellova amount of Snow for some people on here.  The STJ is going to be en fuego as we get into early MAR.

 

 

[tStacsh]

Gorgeous february weekend coming up.  Sunny skies and temps in Low 40's.  No snow pack will be on the ground.  

Winter looks to return somewhat for the second half of February.  But we, of course, will be riding the line between rain and snow depending on the track of the storms.  Looks active.  

The storm for the 16th/17th or 18th next week looks interesting.  Stay tuned.  Could it be winter's last push?    Who's gonna swath the swath of heavy snow?   Hope it's worth tracking.  

[chescowxman]

Above normal temps will continue through Friday then near normal for the weekend with increasing rain chances that could start as some wet snow across higher elevations of Chester County on Sunday. Milder again next wee.

Today's Climate Records: High 61 (1990)/ Low 14 below zero (1934)/ Precip 1.86"(1906) and Snow (6.0") 1936

[tStacsh]

SE ridge is just killing any chance winter in the East/GL's.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Congrats on the snow for those who received some.  Here in town, we still have several inches on the ground, then obviously drifts and large piles, more than several inches on north facing yards and buildings..  Some of it won't be gone for quite awhile.  Sure like the potential for the system next week.  12Z GFS and Canadian are a perfect track around here, and the Euro is a little south of those.  Way to early for specifics, just something to keep watching.  We are now in the time frame, Feb.-Mar. of some of our biggest snowstorms and blizzards in history.  

[Bryan1117]

On 2/8/2023 at 5:22 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

55 today and this map. Let’s have spring/summer already.

Good lord. I didn’t think we could do worse than the Winter of 2021-2022 around this area… however the Winter of 2022-2023 says “hold my beer.” Stick a fork in Winter already!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte Nebraska afternoon disco:  

The second system begins to deepen across the Four Corners on Wednesday morning, before ejecting eastward into the central Plains on into the afternoon/evening. Ensemble/deterministic guidance remains in little agreement with respect of the track of this system, though a growing portion of the guidance suite indicates a deep system entering the Plains. Adding additional confidence, it appears this system will have ample moisture to work with, with ensemble guidance indicating PWAT values approaching/exceeding the 90th percentile climo. This will likely lead to a swath of significant snow accumulations, along with strengthening winds with a threat of blowing and drifting snow. Precisely where the heaviest snow occurs remains low confidence for now, with differences of ~100-200mi in current guidance solutions. That said, those with interests in the middle of next week will need to monitor later forecasts closely. The potential exists for yet another impactful winter storm midweek across the Plains, and details will continue to become more clear with respect to exactly where over the coming days.

[OKwx2k4]

On 2/6/2023 at 6:30 AM, Tom said:

The way the storms are digging into your region and the SSW that'll pop mid month, this will drive the jet south into MAR...just watch, you'll prob get your biggest snow in MAR!

0z Euro...current 10mb temp anomaly

 

Day 10...is this the final warming??

 

I may have been a little to quick on the development of the NW NAMER ridge in Week 2, but I think the models are now starting to head that way around the 15th-17th.  I see the GEFS and EPS starting to show the Alaskan Ridge firing up but we are going to have a hard time to press the cold south into our Southern and Eastern Sub bc of the lack of a -NAO and a dagger of a -PNA, however, that -NAO should pop late FEB around President's is my prediction.  Not only will it fire up, it appears that it will last well into MAR so don't put your snow shovels away just yet.

The way the warming shifts up towards NE Canada/Greenland late in JAN/early FEB is a LR signal to watch out for the Greenland/Baffin Bay Block post 20th-22nd of this month.

 

CFSv2 showing a lot of dryness over Eastern Canada and that is a strong signal there will be High Pressure in this region. Mr. Geenland Block will be making an appearance...nice looking corridor of AN precip and cold temps through the Heartland of the Nation...

 

I'm super late responding to this but for all our new friends, if you want to watch a perfect strat-warming into cold blast, there it is. 

Its almost like the great ones "erupt" over the pole. I'd say winter is not over at all. 

When this season started, I remember looking at the 60s-70s seasons here and there were many there and sprinkled into the 80s- 90s that snow-to-snow was November to April here. 

Whether people agree with me or not, I still hold my ground that its a bit of a new era for winter starting. 

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

The NWS really blew the forecast here in KC last night. When I checked the forecast at 8 pm, they were calling for 0 inches of snow in my area.  The forecast discussion talked about maybe a dusting north of KC (I live on the south side).  I ended up with almost 3 inches in my yard and 2 inches on my driveway.  My wife had to drive to the airport at 6am this morning, and counted 26 cars that had slid off the road.  

I usually suffer from the exact opposite of that problem. Haha. 

I usually don't get extra snow when i don't want it.

[Madtown]

Any chance winter shows up for a bit up here yet? Ice rink is fading fast

[Black Hole]

Snow didn't work out here last night as the wrap around was too weak and now it looks unlikely tonight as well. Annoying, but neither chance ever looked all that good. The next and only hope for anything in the next 7-10 days is likely the system on the 16th. Most models still keeping it north, but a few such as below do show some good snows for OK. I'd put the odds of this at about 10-15% at this point. 

Sn

[Tom]

8 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm super late responding to this but for all our new friends, if you want to watch a perfect strat-warming into cold blast, there it is. 

Its almost like the great ones "erupt" over the pole. I'd say winter is not over at all. 

When this season started, I remember looking at the 60s-70s seasons here and there were many there and sprinkled into the 80s- 90s that snow-to-snow was November to April here. 

Whether people agree with me or not, I still hold my ground that its a bit of a new era for winter starting. 

The latest Euro Weeklies with another wild run for MAR....I think your snow season ain't done yet...maybe nature has one last big Hoorah for the 1st half of MAR for you guys down there.

[Tom]

0z EPS...a lot to figure out with the secondary energy coming out of the 4 corners mid next week.  Personally, I'm not sold on anything significant for Chicago on southward as this type of set up favors more of you out in NE/KS up through IA into WI.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a record setting day at Grand Rapids, Holland and Kalamazoo. At Grand Rapids it was a record rain fall amount of 1.10” at Holland a rain fall amount of 0.97” and at Kalamazoo a record high of 55. The official H/L at GR yesterday was 43/33 and there was no sunshine. The low overnight was a mild 34 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is 32/19 The record high of 61 was set in 2009 and the record low of -21 was set way back in 1899.

 

[Niko]

After yesterdays balmy 55F, I think I am ready for Spring by early March. Felt soooo nice being outside. More record highs possible next week w/ the potential for 60s approaching my area for a day or maybe 2, along w/ another potent rainstorm and winds as well. Any cold air is very brief, followed by a substantial warm-up. No snow or arctic air anytime soon for S MI.

[Clinton]

45 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...a lot to figure out with the secondary energy coming out of the 4 corners mid next week.  Personally, I'm not sold on anything significant for Chicago on southward as this type of set up favors more of you out in NE/KS up through IA into WI.

Looks like a lot of the ensembles show a similar track to the storm we just had with the secondary energy which would make since given that's what the early Nov version did.  I would look for the first piece to cut harder than what some of the models are showing and the second piece to take a similar track to what we just had only with more cold air available this time.

[CentralNebWeather]

07z NWS Blend.  GFS and Canadian have a further NW track than the Euro.  Looks like more model mayhem next week.  I'm always here for it.  

[CentralNebWeather]

06Z GEFS 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

07z NWS Blend.  GFS and Canadian have a further NW track than the Euro.  Looks like more model mayhem next week.  I'm always here for it.  

Both pieces of energy will produce snow, maybe you can double dip.  

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Both pieces of energy will produce snow, maybe you can double dip.  

NWS offices around here really think the first wave stays SE of here, more towards your area and Eastern Nebraska.  The 2nd wave could do come right through here, or look like the Euro and go through KC.  I think there is much more to resolve, and the evolution of the 1st wave's  impact on the 2nd.  May not know that until Monday's or Tuesday mornings models.  

[CentralNebWeather]

This was the position of the 0z ICON at 06z Thursday.  Always our dream track for heavy snow in Northern Kansas and much of Nebraska.  Fun to look at, but a long way to go.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS offices around here really think the first wave stays SE of here, more towards your area and Eastern Nebraska.  The 2nd wave could do come right through here, or look like the Euro and go through KC.  I think there is much more to resolve, and the evolution of the 1st wave's  impact on the 2nd.  May not know that until Monday's or Tuesday mornings models.  

That would be completely backwards to my thinking.  We should get more clarity over the weekend I hope lol.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This was the position of the 0z ICON at 06z Thursday.  Always our dream track for heavy snow in Northern Kansas and much of Nebraska.  Fun to look at, but a long way to go.

The ICON is similar to the Euro with the second storm further south.  I think the second wave will be even further SE.  Eastern Nebraska has not been the target of many storms, the Euro may be doing the best job here so far.

[tStacsh]

Euro just doesn't pull in much cold air.  50's next week.  The systems  look to be rain and rain again for SMI.   Then warms up again after.   Then we are a week away from March.   I don't look at the GFS past 6-7 days because it's always an ice age and that model in the long range is pure garbage.  

[gimmesnow]

GFS has a little below normal around the 17 then all of Feb is warm, at least for everything east of Iowa. It is not ending cold at all, which it usually does. Winter is done here, no chance of snowmobile trails being open for more than a few days after a late storm and the ski hills are going to be a constant battle between freeze/thaw every day and rain. Pretty sad to be honest, easily the worst winter I've had since that dreaded one around 10 years ago. I already ordered the parts to fix my jet ski and I'll probably be working on it Wednesday here since it's going to be close to 50. I'm ready for the lake to thaw and to get on with my summer life.

[CentralNebWeather]

13Z NWS Blend  

[chescowxman]

We have started out mild today but look for temps to start falling later this afternoon as we should have some close to normal temps for the weekend. We may see some rain arriving on Sunday which may start as some wet snow across the higher ridges of Western Chester and Berks Counties before quickly turning to a cold rain. We turn much milder again by Monday. Go Birds!!

Records for today: High 62 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation and Snow 2.28" and 22.8" of snow this was the 2nd day of the 6th largest snowstorm in Chester County history with a total fall of 26.8"

[Clinton]

Early thought from the KSHB team in KC.

Next chance of heavy snow

There will be two systems that try to pass by next Tuesday-Friday.

The second system is the one to keep an eye on for more accumulating snow as it will follow a similar track to the one that just came through.

[Clinton]

Bastardi breaking down the JMA and the MJO.

Feb 10 2023

JMA

The JMA is slowly trending towards a colder solution. Some things aren't adding up with the JMA's forecast though.

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Week 1:

The forecast very closely matches Phase 5 or 6.

 

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Week 2 shows a Phase 7 MJO, which supports a positive TNH:

 

The JMA's vertical velocity forecast for Weeks 3 and 4 is a Phase 1 or 2 MJO. The convection over Indonesia in March even implies a Phase 3.

 

Phases 1, 2, and 3 imply cold for much of the United States (especially Phases 2 and 3).

 

The 500mb forecast for Week 1 makes sense with all this.

The 500mb forecast for Week 2:

Weeks 3 and 4 should feature greater blocking and a stronger trough in the eastern United States though.

 

However, we may be starting to see the pattern subtly change now. The East Coast storm early next week is now expected to be a much stronger feature than what Monday's Euro Weeklies run saw.

The 06z Euro's 500mb forecast for Tuesday:

Monday's Euro Weeklies' 500mb forecast for Tuesday:

 

The 00z Euro's forecast for Day 9 shows another strong feature in the Eastern United States, which arrives at the end of a Phase 7.

 

The Euro's MJO forecast has us enter Phase 8 in the 10-15 day range.

 

The new euro extended

I would look for a correction in the Euro in the 10-15 day range with more undercutting developing. The MJO spent 10 days in Phase 5 during the last warm rotation. This time it spends less than 2 days.

Once the model gets actual input from those phases (rather than just the prediction of it) I think the Euro's forecasts will respond. The forecasted trough early next week, in place of the forecast from 3 days ago for a strong ridge, may be the beginning of this trend.

[mlgamer]

Looking at the latest scorecard, the I-70 snow shield is holding strong from central KS into Indiana (along with the Omaha area snow shield). Will that change before the end of the season...I dunno.

[mlgamer]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Early thought from the KSHB team in KC.

Next chance of heavy snow

There will be two systems that try to pass by next Tuesday-Friday.

The second system is the one to keep an eye on for more accumulating snow as it will follow a similar track to the one that just came through.

I'll admit, I don't have a very good handle on the LRC this year, but I can easily see this system becoming a Dakotas, Northern Nebraska special based on what has transpired this year and the subtle trends and hints coming from the models. I think the GFS, GEM, and ICON already have this pretty much to the north of me with only the Euro nearby.

Not trying to be a pessimist, just trying to keep it real (for my own sanity if nothing else...lol). Still, it will be interesting to keep track of model trends and see how this eventually plays out.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

I'll admit, I don't have a very good handle on the LRC this year, but I can easily see this system becoming a Dakotas, Northern Nebraska special based on what has transpired this year and the subtle trends and hints coming from the models. I think the GFS, GEM, and ICON already have this pretty much to the north of me with only the Euro nearby.

Not trying to be a pessimist, just trying to keep it real (for my own sanity if nothing else...lol). Still, it will be interesting to keep track of model trends and see how this eventually plays out.

Well the AO and NAO are not are friends right now that's for sure.  I'm just going to watch the model trends this weekend, they have a lot to sort out still.  Hopefully EAX doesn't sleep through this storm the way they did the last one if it comes to be.

[Clinton]

Comparing the 12z GFS to the 0z Euro there is not a lot of difference in the placement of the low.  The biggest differences is the Euro is more negatively tilted, stronger and wetter. When I look back to early November it makes me favor the Euro as it was a negatively tilted and very wet storm that dropped 2 inch rain totals in the KC area.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON, GFS and Canadian all have what looks like a major winter storm in the Central Plains next Wednesday/Thursday with the 2nd wave.  Still 5 days out, so we know much can change.  Will be interested to see what the Euro does in the coming days.

[Grizzcoat]

Ha!! 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ha!! 

Whenever I see a map like this I send it to my brothers and friends with a note "guaranteed to happen".  And this is the most guaranteed to ever happen map I've ever seen in my life.