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February 2023 Observations and Discussions


Iceresistance

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Meanwhile, the west is preparing for yet another Major system and my friend confirmed that it actually snowed by Granada Hills, CA.  The elevation is around 2,000ft or so...but that's nothing to what is about to transpire for them out there.

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
340 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2023

CAZ053-054-232100-
/O.CON.KLOX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230224T1200Z/
/O.CON.KLOX.BZ.W.0001.230224T1200Z-230226T0000Z/
Ventura County Mountains-Los Angeles County Mountains-
Including the cities of Lockwood Valley, Mount Pinos, Acton,
and Mount Wilson
340 AM PST Thu Feb 23 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Winter Storm Warning through late Thursday with low
  elevation snow, strong winds and very cold wind chills. For the
  Blizzard Warning, heavy snow, winds gusting up to 80 mph, and
  near zero visibility. Total snow accumulations from 6 to 12
  inches likely between 2000-4000 feet up to 2 and 5 feet of above
  4000 feet. Isolated amounts to between 7 and 8 feet at higher
  elevations. Major mountains passes will be affected by
  significant snowfall.

* WHERE...Ventura County Mountains and Los Angeles County
  Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 4 AM PST Friday.
  For the Blizzard Warning, from 4 AM Friday to 4 PM PST
  Saturday.
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The weekend is looking like severe weather will target Oklahoma.  There’s a chance of a rare late winter tornado developing and hail. 
North Texas will share in the southern end of that system and get storms. 
Temps will range between 60-70.  

While the Northern Midwest is frozen in, the southern will be experiencing early spring-like storms.  
We’ll have sunny, clear skies today and 62*.

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Crazy the difference that 150 miles or less can make in seasonal snowfall totals. Really thankful for the storm last week or this map would have looked even worse for East Central Nebraska (even though we are still about a foot of snow short of our yearly average at this point).

Hopefully March can deliver heavy rains or snows around here, as we will need it!  

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Winter appears it'll return for the rest of this Sub post 5th/7th and hang on well into March.  Don't fool me in April!  I got this feeling that there will some monster storms setting up across the Heartland post 5th of March.  Just a gut feeling that this will be a wild wild month of weather.

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There is still a good 1.5” of snow/sleet/ice in the yard. They did plow the road yesterday and there is a good size snow/ice pile at the end of the driveway. I did not clear the driveway yesterday and as I am still coughing a lot from COVID I will just let the snow/ice combo just melt on its own. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 37/26 there was a trace of snow fall and just 5 minutes of sunshine. Officially there was 1’ of snow/ice on the ground. The overnight low here in my yard and the current temperature is 22. For today the average H/L is 36/21 the record high of 57 was set in 1930 and the record low of -9 was set in 1989. The largest snow fall of 7.3” fell in 2016. At the current time the mean temperature’s for December, January and February are all above 30 for Grand Rapids. If that stays until the end of the month it will be only the 3rd time that all 3 months of meteorological winter have been 30 or above the other times that has happened were in 1931/32 and in 1920/21 In the winter of 1931/32 March of 1932 was the coldest month with a mean of 28.4 and that month also had 25.3” of snow fall. There are still around 711,000 customers without power in Michigan.

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

You've just got the hot hand out there in Nebraska! ~SnowMagnet

I think it may be a little more now.  I would say a solid 3" at least.  Roads were a mess.  Our street department must have been surprised, as I drove on 2 emergency snow routes to school that haven't been touched.  Had to put the truck in 4x4.  Our school maintenance crew needs an award, or time off.  They had our lots about clear by 7 AM.  It seems like everyday they are moving piles and drifts, and dumping them in an open field.  They've had a long winter.  I think we probably should have had a late start, but I know our superintendent wants to do everything possible to save the day or two we have left, so we don't have to extend the school year longer in May.  

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16 minutes ago, Tom said:

hang on well into March

Here in Grand Rapids this looks to be only the 3rd time that the mean for meteorological winter has been warmer than 30 for each of the winter months. Other winters were 1931/32 and 1920/21 in the winter of 1931/32 March of 1932 was the coldest and snowiest month of the winter season.

 

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We have already seen our high temperature for today at 52.3 degrees this morning at 4:58am. We are down to 43.8 here at 8am. Tonight should be the coldest night in a couple weeks and there is an increasing chance of some light snow across much of the county tomorrow late morning and afternoon. All models show some very minor snow accumulations during the day with temps struggling to pass the freezing mark. Warmer again by Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain on Monday.
Records for today: High 74 (1985) / Low 0.3 below zero (2015) / Precipitation 2.47" (2016)/ Snow 5.5' (1907)
image.png.c444d4d060e03984a8675fc708379b66.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Severe weather threat ramps up here Sunday evening. Could potentially see a good squall with a lot of wind and some tornado threat. I still see no good chance of snow here. Still a smattering of ensemble members showing some snow chances in the week 2 period, so technically still possible we get something else, but it certainly seems unlikely. Might be about time to start focusing on the spring convective season for OK.

I'd say the coming pattern should support snow chances continuing at times up north and I expect several more good events to come. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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19 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Severe weather threat ramps up here Sunday evening. Could potentially see a good squall with a lot of wind and some tornado threat. I still see no good chance of snow here. Still a smattering of ensemble members showing some snow chances in the week 2 period, so technically still possible we get something else, but it certainly seems unlikely. Might be about time to start focusing on the spring convective season for OK.

I'd say the coming pattern should support snow chances continuing at times up north and I expect several more good events to come. 

Tornado Alley is about to light up.  Maybe this year will provide some exciting weather for chasers.

1677412800-01677227400.png

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Winter appears it'll return for the rest of this Sub post 5th/7th and hang on well into March.  Don't fool me in April!  I got this feeling that there will some monster storms setting up across the Heartland post 5th of March.  Just a gut feeling that this will be a wild wild month of weather.

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image.gif

Idk where we would put all that snow. Snow banks are impressive up here!

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Hellllloooooo from Chicago!! Beautiful morning, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, but cold. Current temp at 21F. Great city to be in. Always enjoy coming here, whether on business or pleasure. I am staying in the heart of downtown Chicago near, half a block from  Magnificent Mile. Was walking last night inthe city and ma, that wind was howling, along w/ a biting wcf. Windy city living up to its name I guess.

@TomHave ya ever been to Gino's Pizzaria? That is where I had dinner last night. It also has a rooftop for the summer and I was chatting w/ the owner there an told me that during the warm months, you litterally have to wait an hr or so for a table up there. Yikes. I guess its worth it though. Pizza was AMAZINGGGGG. Ordered a thick crust pie and waited for about 45 min or so at the bar w/ couple of drinks.

Will post pics soon.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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To prove that models don't just suck in the midwest/GL's.  I'm going to San Antonio this weekend.  Compare the temperature forecasts from the Euro vs. the NAM on Saturday afternoon.  A 19 degree difference and this is a forecast for TOMORROW!  I have no idea what to expect.  Could be beautiful and warm (Euro) or unseasonably cool (NAM) or somewhere in between.  I'm obviously hoping the Euro wins this battle.  

 

sfct-imp.us_state_tx_s.png

 

sfct-imp.us_state_tx_s.png

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

Hellllloooooo from Chicago!! Beautiful morning, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, but cold. Current temp at 21F. Great city to be in. Always enjoy coming here, whether on business or pleasure. I am staying in the heart of downtown Chicago near, half a block from  Magnificent Mile. Was walking last night inthe city and ma, that wind was howling, along w/ a biting wcf. Windy city living up to its name I guess.

@TomHave ya ever been to Gino's Pizzaria? That is where I had dinner last night. It also has a rooftop for the summer and I was chatting w/ the owner there an told me that during the warm months, you litterally have to wait an hr or so for a table up there. Yikes. I guess its worth it though. Pizza was AMAZINGGGGG. Ordered a thick crust pie and waited for about 45 min or so at the bar w/ couple of drinks.

Will post pics soon.

Mouth watering Pizza!  Ya, your in a prime spot off the Mag Mile.  What cross streets?  Are you north of the River or South?  Enjoy your stay here and let me know where you decided to go for a quick lunch.  Next time you come into town, let me know and we can grab a bite somewhere.  Maybe sometime in the summer would be better.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Winter appears it'll return for the rest of this Sub post 5th/7th and hang on well into March.  Don't fool me in April!  I got this feeling that there will some monster storms setting up across the Heartland post 5th of March.  Just a gut feeling that this will be a wild wild month of weather.

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image.gif

Are you saying winter is not done in KC?? A March Madness finish?? I see that -NAO and -AO potential, BUT, will it happen??

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45 minutes ago, Tom said:

Mouth watering Pizza!  Ya, your in a prime spot off the Mag Mile.  What cross streets?  Are you north of the River or South?  Enjoy your stay here and let me know where you decided to go for a quick lunch.  Next time you come into town, let me know and we can grab a bite somewhere.  Maybe sometime in the summer would be better.

Best Pizza ever for sure!!! 

Magnificent Mile and St. Clair are the crossroads. I think the river is facing south of my hotel.

Sounds like a great idea, I will definitely let you know. My treat!

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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30 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS starting to show some interesting members for an OHV cutter around March 3rd/4th???

image.png

 

 

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GRR has been hinting to this the past couple of days, but this morning they've decided against it:

"In terms of a potential late week system it is noted that both 00Z deterministic gfs and ecmwf guidance has trended much further se with the system. Forecast confidence that far out in time is low given an enormous spread in 00Z ecmwf and gefs ensemble low locations by then. 00Z gefs ensembles do show a bit more potential for a system to move through the lower OH valley region by around next Friday but the spread in low locations is large. Therefore it is looking much more doubtful that a major low pressure system will impact our region late next week."

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like LNK is getting some snow this early morning along with some brutal temps!  Hey, at least some peeps on here are experiencing Real Winter!

Screen Shot 2023-02-24 at 5.36.13 AM.png

 

 

Meanwhile, it's brutal out there where the Upper MW Glacier has been built!

Feb 24th U.S. Snow Cover Map.jpeg

 

Portland beating out Detroit for Snow depth in February ?  That’s a rarity! 

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4 hours ago, bud2380 said:

To prove that models don't just suck in the midwest/GL's.  I'm going to San Antonio this weekend.  Compare the temperature forecasts from the Euro vs. the NAM on Saturday afternoon.  A 19 degree difference and this is a forecast for TOMORROW!  I have no idea what to expect.  Could be beautiful and warm (Euro) or unseasonably cool (NAM) or somewhere in between.  I'm obviously hoping the Euro wins this battle.  

 

sfct-imp.us_state_tx_s.png

 

sfct-imp.us_state_tx_s.png

Oh Lordy!   Here in Texas at late winter, and late fall if we’re planning on a weekend trip in Texas we usually pack a jacket, AND shorts! 🤠 

One just never knows.  Mets can vary online and TV. One long time Tx Met said that North and Central Texas was often the hardest weather to accurately forecast.  I have lived here all my life and it still pulls a fast one on me now and again.  
It’s half the fun of living here! 
Enjoy your trip!   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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