February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ha!! 

You don't think parts of Iowa will get 70"?  Come on.  

[Hawkeye]

The GFS, GDPS, UK, and ICON are nearly identical next week... all hitting the nw half of Iowa.  The Euro is, at least through last night, the only south holdout.

[CentralNebWeather]

27 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ha!! 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z UKIE.  Only goes to 144 hours, and is still snowing heavily at 144.  10:1 ratio.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GEFS

[Tom]

Might as well start up a storm thread for this one since its 5 days out to hitting the C Plains...

 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Might as well start up a storm thread for this one since its 5 days out to hitting the C Plains...

 

It will entertain us while we wait for king NAM to sort this thing out lol.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Might as well start up a storm thread for this one since its 5 days out to hitting the C Plains...

 

Sounds good to me @Tom

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another snowy GEPS run for the Central and Northern Plains/Upper MW...

Some of your out west  are going to get nailed…

[bud2380]

Euro looks to be coming in much further north this run.  

[bud2380]

Low is tracking through NW MO this run versus central MO last run.  

[bud2380]

More heavy rain for eastern Iowa on the front end of the system.  Let's see if we get hit with the deformation band as the low passes or not.  

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro looks to be coming in much further north this run.  

Looks much more similar to the UKIE, GFS, ICON, and Canadian. Just a little south of those, but indeed further north this run.

[bud2380]

Negative for those of us in east central Iowa.  Too early to get worried about, but as usual around here it seems like we will either ride that line or just barely miss out again.  

[bud2380]

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely more to the NW than 00z...

 

This is actually remarkable that all 5 of the major models we tend to look at are this similar 5 days out from a storm.  

[winterfreak]

Aaand the EURO caves north. Shocker.

[mlgamer]

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

I actually just laughed outloud.  That is too funny.  I've felt your pain before.

[bud2380]

Even the ensembles are in line with the operational models.  Unheard of at this distance out.  Wonder how long that will last?

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The Omaha snow shield is still clearly there on the GFS. Only 39” when Iowa gets 6 feet? C’mon!

Here’s forecast wind gusts too from one of the systems after next week’s storm.

[MIKEKC]

No way that storm is going north of KC. Heavy snow in KC Wednesday night through Thursday, this time, with actual winter temps in the 20's and not 33 and snowing.

After that, another big snow around Feb. 20th-22nd and two more after that up to March 10th.

 

KC is at 8.8 inches for the season and will end up with 25+

Big finish coming!!

GO CHIEFS!!!

[tStacsh]

Judging by the latests runs and our office's AFD.  Towel being thrown in on this winter in SMI.  Any snow we get from late Feb-March will now just be annoying.  Bring on spring (which is basically already here).  Outside of 3 snow event, Terrible winter.  2 out 5.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

No way that storm is going north of KC. Heavy snow in KC Wednesday night through Thursday, this time, with actual winter temps in the 20's and not 33 and snowing.

After that, another big snow around Feb. 20th-22nd and two more after that up to March 10th.

 

KC is at 8.8 inches for the season and will end up with 25+

Big finish coming!!

GO CHIEFS!!!

I agree but it's KC so we shall see.  By Sunday night we could be celebrating a Superbowl and tracking a snow.

[Bellona]

Definitely looks busy with multiple storms to track.  Hopefully we all can score at least one and some lucky ducks more than that.

[Clinton]

I started a thread for next weeks storms.

[Black Hole]

Don't forget the Tulsa snow hole doughnut! 

13 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Looking at the latest scorecard, the I-70 snow shield is holding strong from central KS into Indiana (along with the Omaha area snow shield). Will that change before the end of the season...I dunno.

[westMJim]

Boy, this has been one very odd winter season.  While Grand Rapids has recorded 81.5” of snow fall most of that fell in 3 events. The first one was November 15 to the 20th the 2nd event was December 15th to the 18th with a 3 day break and then the 22nd to the 26th and the 3rd event January 22nd to the 31st in the snowy periods snow fell every day but for the winter season the ground was snow free the first 15 days of December and then again the first 3 weeks of January. There was a total of 17” on the ground on December 25th only to be all gone by the 30th. The snow fall amount around west Michigan so far this winter season are that 81.5” at Grand Rapids, 41.0” at Muskegon, 42” at Kalamazoo and 38.6” at Lansing. The 30 year average of 1” or more on the ground at Grand Rapids is 67. So far this year just 36 days have had 1” or more on the ground. For 3” the 30 year average is 44 days so far this winter the number is 31. For 5” or more on the ground the 30-year average is 29 this winter season so far 21. And for 8” the 30 year average is 12 this winter season there have been 11 so far. And for 12” or more the average is 4 and that is how many Grand Rapids has had this winter season. The mean temperature at Grand Rapids for December 2022 was a 30.1° For January the mean was a mild 31.7° If with the mild temperature that the rest of February look to have can bring the mean up to 30 or better this winter season will be only the 4 time in Grand Rapids recorded history that the mean for the winter months of December, January and February have all been 30 or better. The other winters were 1931/32, 1920/21 and 2001/02. Now how has this winter been for the AWSSI? Well here in Grand Rapids this odd winter has gone from extreme to severe to average and is now at moderate.  Most other locations in Lower Michigan now have a AWSSI of mild with only GR and Ann Arbor being moderate at this time. In the state of Michigan only Sault Ste Marie, Marquette and Ironwood have an index of Average.
We now have 10 days of February 2023 in the record books and the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 28.0(+3.3) there has been 1.15” of precipitation and just 0.4” of snow fall. At Lansing the mean so far in 28.9(+5.0) there has been 1.10” of precipitation and just a trace of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean there is 29.0(+2.9) with 0.72” precipitation and just a trace of snow fall.

[Tom]

Going to keep this short and sweet...nearly ALL the Globals are showing a similar tune as we near the mid point of FEB...0z EPS snow mean from the 15th...#FEBSnowBlitz

The question I have is...Who's gonna Cash in?

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Going to keep this short and sweet...nearly ALL the Globals are showing a similar tune as we near the mid point of FEB...0z EPS snow mean from the 15th...#FEBSnowBlitz

The question I have is...Who's gonna Cash in?

This would be great...trails down to nothing in the corners.

[Clinton]

Very nice weekend a head.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Going to keep this short and sweet...nearly ALL the Globals are showing a similar tune as we near the mid point of FEB...0z EPS snow mean from the 15th...#FEBSnowBlitz

The question I have is...Who's gonna Cash in?

Interesting that all models show the MJO racing through the warm phases very quickly and they all show the MJO landing in phase 8 by the 17th.  Are we going to block it up for the last week or two of the month?  If you want February snow in the plains these are the teleconnections that you want to see.  Could this be the effects of the current Strat warm starting to show up? 

[chescowxman]

Sunny with slightly above normal temps for today with a high near 43. Rain chances increase tomorrow and chilly with temps likely staying in the 30's in the Western parts of Chester County and near 40 further east. There could be some wet snow flakes or sleet mixed in for while during the early PM. We then turn sunny and mild again to start the new work week.

The records for today: High 64 (1960) / Low 13 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.68" (1983) / Snow 21.8" (1983) - that was day one of the 2 day blizzard that left Chester County under 22.4" of snow. This was the 10th largest snowstorm in County history.

[mlgamer]

Don't know if anyone mentioned it, but Jim Flowers turned his Facebook back on. Looks like he plans to do things on a more limited basis.

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/?hc_ref=ARQd3rwAHf7BE4D5M-pBo1FSYJnYY8WQEL2_r3VWxtnUslY1h-RB07fkSM67lkJ02Jg&fref=nf

[gimmesnow]

CFS Weekly says next two weeks are an absolute torch for most of us. Is that something to take seriously or is it like long range GFS? GFS says torch next two weeks too. Is the rest of winter cancelled?

[Black Hole]

I like the look of this. How long does it take for the SSW to actually affect the surface?

[westMJim]

Good morning! The mild February weather just continues. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 45/19. So far this month there have only been 2 days that have not gotten above 32 for highs. There was no rain/snow yesterday and there was 100% of possible sunshine. It did get kind of cold overnight last night as it has now dropped down to 22 here in MBY with clear skies. For today the average high/low is now up to 33/19. The record high for today is just 55 set in 1984 and the record low of -23 was set way back in 1899. The record snow fall of 5.1” was set in 2019. The sun is now up 10h 25m and that is the same as October 29th.

Today looks to be another sunny mild February day with highs in the mid 40’s. The next 5 days look to stay mostly mild until late Thursday when some colder air filters in and changes the rain to maybe some snow

[Clinton]

8 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I like the look of this. How long does it take for the SSW to actually affect the surface?

From what I've been reading it would be the last week of this month or the first week of March.

[chescowxman]

Cloudy and chilly today with the best chance of rain across SE Chester County with less chances the further NW you travel across the county. Temperatures then warm up through Friday with highs possibly touching 60 degrees by Thursday. That day is also the best chance of rain after today. Much cooler again by Friday night into next weekend.

Records for today: High 68 degrees (1999) / Low 1 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.46" (1985)/ Snow 12.8" (2006) - GO BIRDS!!!

[Clinton]

KC looking like a lock to finish in the top 10 wettest Februarys.