February 2023 Observations and Discussions

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I like the look of this. How long does it take for the SSW to actually affect the surface?

I've always understood it to be 6-8 weeks. 

That's truly beautiful.

[OKwx2k4]

It appears that our ENSO thread is lost, but its probably due for a reboot. 

After 3 years of Niña.....

Its always cool to watch the oceans cycle.

Of note for our future weather is the drifting of warmer waters across the N. Pac and western Pac near China as El Niño rears its head. 

This is important due to the effects of typhoon activity and interactions with the PV, which is already gone nuclear attm. 

The typical response to mid-latitude warming in the larger oceans over the N. Hen is cooling continents, so we may well see a very late start to spring with and intimately end to summer in September. That's non-February gibberish at this point, but stuff worth filing in your memory for later. 

May well see a coupled positive feedback system develop in the N. Pac like in 2013-15 with the "warm blob". 

Its safe to say there are some unknowns walking out of a 3 year Niña and locked-in weather cycle. Going to be fun.

[Hawkeye]

Lock it in.

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Lock it in.

RN for the Lwr Lakes? Looks about right. Friday's WPC outlook had that "teaser alert" look for mby. Pretty sure I'm done tracking anything but stat-padders at this point. 

 

[jaster220]

I know it's the GFS, but it is almost laughable how often the last 3 seasons have featured a screw zone for the Lwr Lakes & OHV (STL/IND/ORD/DTW). 

12.12z GFS keeps pounding the drum. Ofc, the next 3 yrs we'll get a Nino and watch as all the storms track south and up the EC with huge hits. This has become a "one storm every two years" pattern for me. I know that's not uncommon for some of our posters on this Sub, but it is for The Mitt. 

[Tom]

53F and sunny blue skies…how can you not enjoy this Spring tease?  Was thinking about grilling but I’ll save it for tomorrow.  Should be an entertaining Super Bowl.  

[OKwx2k4]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

53F and sunny blue skies…how can you not enjoy this Spring tease?  Was thinking about grilling but I’ll save it for tomorrow.  Should be an entertaining Super Bowl.  

This has been a weird winter for me. 

A little something for everyone. I've liked it so far. It hasn't been extreme, but it has really felt like a solid cold season since even October. After the few that were only cold between December and February 1 here (it seemed like), its been nice. 

I wonder if people who think weather is annoying think people who enjoy it are too. Lol. 

Its been a winter with just enough of each unique part to appreciate the other parts. I guess that's the neatest way to say it. 

[gimmesnow]

The lake is melting so quickly right now. I just worked on one of my jet skis outside and washed my car in nothing but pants and a t shirt. I am really ready to start jet skiing and stuff this year. First year in my snowboarding life I was ever ready for it to just be over. Worst season I've experienced in the last 14 years. At least I have a lot to look forward to this summer.

With this rain and heat I might start seeing some open water finally.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Forecast high of 60 tomorrow, and then .5-1.0” of rain on Tuesday.

We’re now down to a 50% chance of snow for “the big dog” Wednesday night, and after a brief 2 day cool down, it’s right back to highs near 50 next weekend.

[Black Hole]

This will be the next period to watch for winter weather for my area, but no doubt all of the southern plains may be at risk. Pretty good signal for a good northerly pressure gradient with some kind of wave rotating in that could bring snow or ice. We will see. 

[Black Hole]

In the slightly longer range EPS showing a good signal for the Polar Vortex to settle into Canada. Seems like there might be some opportunities for some of this to break south so I wouldn't be surprised to see more wintry weather (especially northern plains) during this period. 

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was sunny and by February standards a warm day. At Grand Rapids the official H/L was 48/28. That 48 believe it or not was the 2^nd warmest February 12^th in recorded history at Grand Rapids (1990 and 1946 also reached 48) there was 100% of possible sunshine and there was no rain/snow. Over at Lansing their official high of 52 was good for the 4^th warmest in their recorded history. Here in MBY the overnight temperature fell to 26 before rising to 33 and that 33 is the current temperature here at in my yard. For today the average H/L is 33/19 the record high for today is 58 set in 1938 and the record low of -24 was set in 1899. The -24 is the official coldest low at Grand Rapids. Looking ahead the forecasted highs in the low 50’s on Tuesday would be flirting with record highs at Grand Rapids. And then we will keep a eye on winds and a system for Thursday.

 

[Black Hole]

Oh I can definitely work with this. Good potential for some snow/ice even down here if this general pattern sets up. 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

In the slightly longer range EPS showing a good signal for the Polar Vortex to settle into Canada. Seems like there might be some opportunities for some of this to break south so I wouldn't be surprised to see more wintry weather (especially northern plains) during this period. 

It also appears the models are now all starting to see the MJO heading into a more favorable Phase 8 for this period and maybe Phase 1 or the NULL phase...

 

 

[Tom]

Boy, the EPS is showing some monster hits for President's week...that period looks fascinating as the real deal Arctic Air infiltrates the pattern while the early warmth tries to push up from the south.  These are the set ups that can, and will, produce volatile wx from ice & snow to severe wx and flooding.  Buckle up...the FEB 2nd half rally is dialing up!

[WinterSquall23]

18 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I know it's the GFS, but it is almost laughable how often the last 3 seasons have featured a screw zone for the Lwr Lakes & OHV (STL/IND/ORD/DTW). 

12.12z GFS keeps pounding the drum. Ofc, the next 3 yrs we'll get a Nino and watch as all the storms track south and up the EC with huge hits. This has become a "one storm every two years" pattern for me. I know that's not uncommon for some of our posters on this Sub, but it is for The Mitt. 

Why is there always a hole with snow surrounding us. ?Is it the warm lakes this year moderating our temps.? Just curious and still learning here. 

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Why is there always a hole with snow surrounding us. ?Is it the warm lakes this year moderating our temps.? Just curious and still learning here. 

It's more complex, but here's a simple answer.   No sustained cold air.  Bad storm tracks.  Michigan does well in NW flow and clipper pattern and the occasional southern stream storm.   The former has been lacking all winter, and the majority of the storm tracks have cut too much.  

[chescowxman]

We picked up a needed .07" of rain yesterday. Beautiful late winter day across the County today. Temps today in the 50's and we might hit 60 degrees on Wednesday. Looks like rain again by Thursday.
The record high for today is 65 degrees from 1951. Record low was the 5 below zero from 1979. The daily precipitation and snow record are both from today's date in 1899. In the midst of the greatest snowstorm in Chester County history with 35.3" of snow falling on the 13th alone and an incredible storm total of 53.0" by the time the storm wrapped up on Valentines Day.

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Sunny skies and not a cloud to be found. Temps are approaching 50F. Still some patchy snow piles here and there, but after these beautiful mild days, I think I am ready for spring.  I'll give it till end of Feb and even until early March and thats it. Hopefully next year bolds better.

 

BTW: congrats chiefs!!

[Iceresistance]

On 2/8/2023 at 4:35 PM, hawkstwelve said:

Found this on a Midwestern-related site and thought it was pretty funny...

 

A bit late, but do you have a link to it?

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Why is there always a hole with snow surrounding us. ?Is it the warm lakes this year moderating our temps.? Just curious and still learning here. 

What @Stacsh said is correct on the shorter term time scale. The 3 years of this "dead zone" on a longer scale is nature balancing out the golden years from not that long ago. During the 3 winters (14/15/16) where I lived in far S Michigan I had 14 Storm Warnings! That's an insane average of more than 4.5/season when the long-term average is more like 1.5/season. I remember certain posters back then mentioning how horrible things would be at some point when the inevitable balancing would happen. And yeah, here we are and it's not been fun. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Coast to coast storm hits California tomorrow and then could bring tornadoes East of the Rockies.

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids hit 50º both yesterday and today.  Most of the snow is gone again... until Thursday.

[Hawkeye]

Models have been flirting with action in the extended as a Baja upper low eventually ejects northeast into the central US ahead of some digging northern energy.  There is big potential if we can get the energy to align favorably.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have been flirting with action in the extended as a Baja upper low eventually ejects northeast into the central US ahead of some digging northern energy.  There is big potential if we can get the energy to align favorably.

I like the fact the models are easing back on the +EPO and dipping (-) during this period...remember when pretty much all of them were + last week for this period?  I hope to see these trends continue as last night's 0z Euro OP really tanked the EPO.  As you said, this one has BIG potential and produce a widespread winter storm for many on here.  Love the fact that Arctic Air is readily available and bleeding south into the pattern.

 

Euro OP...

 

 

0z EPS snow mean...both GEFS/EPS are showing Big Hits for next week...this period has been on my calendar and one that I'm actually getting a bit excited about.

 

[Tom]

The Blizzard capital of the U.S. is yet again showing why the Upper MW region is a magnet to Blitz warnings...is there more coming next week but farther south?  I got a feeling there is something Big brewing up for President's week...

[chescowxman]

Another well above normal day today with temps in the low 50's. Our normal high today is just shy of 40 degrees. Of note today is the last day in the winter with average high temperatures of less than 40 degrees. The next time average high temperatures are in the 30's will be December 19th. Tomorrow we will approach near 60 but with increasing clouds. Rain looks to arrive on Thursday into early Friday. Will will turn briefly chillier again on Friday PM into Saturday before warming up again by Sunday.

Our records for today: High 63 degrees (1949) / Low 4 below zero (1979) / Precipitation 1.25" (2007) / Snow 10.0" (1899)

[Hawkeye]

This morning's op GFS and GDPS are both on board major action beyond day seven.

[tStacsh]

33 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This morning's op GFS and GDPS are both on board major action beyond day seven.

for sure, check out the temp gradients.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Hit 62 yesterday and have had only 1 day below 40 degrees for a high thus far this month. Warmest high since last November as well.

Today, I’m up to .76” of rain that is basically just running off everywhere due to the still frozen ground.

Now to wait for the next whiff tomorrow night and Thursday!

[james1976]

Literally raining all day here in MN. Upper 30s. Pretty nasty day. No wind though but the runoff is pretty crazy. Lots of standing water.

0.78" so far

[Grizzcoat]

3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Literally raining all day here in MN. Upper 30s. Pretty nasty day. No wind though but the runoff is pretty crazy. Lots of standing water.

0.78" so far

Talked to my buddy today in St Anthony-- he said water water everywhere and many homes downspouts etc. not draining water due to being frozen.  Yuck.

[Hawkeye]

Today's rain system was a nothingburger here.  Models were pretty low with qpf (0.20-0.40"), but we didn't even get that much.  Very light rain added up to only 0.17".

[Grizzcoat]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

Today's rain system was a nothingburger here.  Models were pretty low with qpf (0.20-0.40"), but we didn't even get that much.  Very light rain added up to only 0.17".

Same here. Managed .32". Most were calling for .50"+.

[Black Hole]

I got .65" at my place which was just above my expectations. 

[Black Hole]

Probably less than a 10% chance of any snow in the next 2 weeks still. 

[westMJim]

I did not post yesterday as I was in bed sleeping most of the day. I did not feel well so I went to an urgent care center and lo and behold I tested positive for Covid. This is the first time that I have tested positive. I can’t take Paxlovid as I am taking Eliquis. I will have to see how this plays out.

While I was sleeping record highs were set all around west and central Michigan. The new record highs are 54 at Grand Rapids. 59 at Muskegon, 58 at Lansing and 56 at Holland. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 54/26 there was 0.01” of rain fall and 58% of possible sunshine. There was rain falling when I woke up this morning and the current temperature is 49 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 34/19 the record high for today is 61 set in 1954 and the record low of -8 was set in 2015 the record snow fall of 4.8” was set in 1990. There now looks to be a rather major snow event for tomorrow here in our area. 

[chescowxman]

Could see a shower this AM with a warm front with sun returning this PM with temps warming to the low 60's in many spots. Rain by tomorrow afternoon and then sharply but briefly colder by Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Records for today: High 75 (1949) / Low 11 below zero (1899) / Precipitation 1.61" (1987) / Snow 13.0" (1958)

[Tom]

22 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I did not post yesterday as I was in bed sleeping most of the day. I did not feel well so I went to an urgent care center and lo and behold I tested positive for Covid. This is the first time that I have tested positive. I can’t take Paxlovid as I am taking Eliquis. I will have to see how this plays out.

While I was sleeping record highs were set all around west and central Michigan. The new record highs are 54 at Grand Rapids. 59 at Muskegon, 58 at Lansing and 56 at Holland. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 54/26 there was 0.01” of rain fall and 58% of possible sunshine. There was rain falling when I woke up this morning and the current temperature is 49 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 34/19 the record high for today is 61 set in 1954 and the record low of -8 was set in 2015 the record snow fall of 4.8” was set in 1990. There now looks to be a rather major snow event for tomorrow here in our area. 

Feel better my friend!  Rest and recover...take it easy and you'll be just fine.  Thanks for the update.

 

Meanwhile, winds are crazy over here as they are gusting in excess of 40 mph.  Last night, I woke up to the sounds of hail pelting my skylights around 11pm or so...apparently, I somehow managed to get some training cells and it was pouring for a bit.  

[Tom]

Overall, the models continue to dip the -EPO next week...Arctic Air will press and last night's 0z Euro/EPS seem to be driving the idea of a farther south storm track.  NE PAC ridge is firing up...

0z EPS... @OttumwaSnomowmore snow chances lining for you $$$$$....2nd Half FEB Rally...