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February 2023 Observations and Discussions


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39 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I did not post yesterday as I was in bed sleeping most of the day. I did not feel well so I went to an urgent care center and lo and behold I tested positive for Covid. This is the first time that I have tested positive. I can’t take Paxlovid as I am taking Eliquis. I will have to see how this plays out.

While I was sleeping record highs were set all around west and central Michigan. The new record highs are 54 at Grand Rapids. 59 at Muskegon, 58 at Lansing and 56 at Holland. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 54/26 there was 0.01” of rain fall and 58% of possible sunshine. There was rain falling when I woke up this morning and the current temperature is 49 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 34/19 the record high for today is 61 set in 1954 and the record low of -8 was set in 2015 the record snow fall of 4.8” was set in 1990. There now looks to be a rather major snow event for tomorrow here in our area. 

GR weather station is always a degree or so cooler than surrounding areas.  I had 57 with full sun yesterday.  

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Next week looking less snowy and more warmy

@Tom keeps flashing the EPS snowfall "future-cast" but it's been 50's and sunny here almost every day for the past week. Granted, it wasn't much cooler during the first 3 weeks of January, but I think this area is legit done with anything warranting a plow. Whatever action there may be looks to be "just north" of here. I am headed up to TC Sunday so I was hoping this would bury that region like was shown a couple days ago but now it will jack-zone middle of the Mitt instead. Still hope to see some snow OTG. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ouch. I know every winter is forecast to be epic on this forum, but this is an ugly map for most.

6F00CA01-9AB8-4CD9-B08C-A368F15B2688.jpeg

That map is why @Tom is back in AZ. Can't say I blame him. Wish I had the option too, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 2/14/2023 at 12:14 PM, tStacsh said:

for sure, check out the temp gradients.  1389028246_tempgfs.thumb.png.64a0cc3b61fdba7ae61d54bd2d2fb302.png521854203_tempGEM.thumb.png.70b9e98549fdffde85d44e42bffee1e7.png1973081043_tempEURO.thumb.png.45a142c90d662cf8467157095bb6c9be.png

Only 10 days out, what could change?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lately It mostly seems like March here. The soil never froze very deep all winter an occasionally it's basically frost free. I even saw a lot of earthworms *last evening and the tulips 🌷 I planted a few months ago last fall are already poking through on south sides of buildings! Reminds me of the '11 - 2012 winter. What's amazing, and also good and very unusual, is that basically all of our winter precip. has soaked into the ground so far! And it's been a wetter than average winter alleviating the drought. 

Edited by Sparky
*actually Tuesday evening
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4 hours ago, Sparky said:

Lately It mostly seems like March here. The soil never froze very deep all winter an occasionally it's basically frost free. I even saw a lot of earthworms last evening and the tulips 🌷 I planted a few months ago last fall are already poking through on south sides of buildings! Reminds me of the '11 - 2012 winter. What's amazing, and also good and very unusual, is that basically all of our winter precip. has soaked into the ground so far! And it's been a wetter than average winter alleviating the drought. 

Glad to see you back Sparky!  Ya, it's been a lackluster winter for our area but there is some decent signals that it'll pick up in the snow dept as we close up this month.

0z EPS...pressing the cold and the snow to follow...

 

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Our mild weather continues today into tomorrow morning until a sharp cold front moves across the area which will drop temps during the day tomorrow down into the 20's by late tomorrow night into Saturday morning. We will also see some much needed rain as we have only seen 0.09" of rain on just 2 days this month. We are almost 2" below normal this month. I have heard reports that Marsh Creek Lake is as low as folks have seen it in a long time. The combined lack of snow and rain is taking it's toll. The good news is we could see between 0.50" and 0.75" across Chester County between showers today and then more rain associated with the cold front tomorrow morning.
Records for today: High 72 degrees (1954) / Low 2.8 below zero (2015) / 14.7" (2003) as part of the PD2 Blizzard of 2003 when we received 21.3" of snow - this was the 5th largest February snowstorm in Chester County history. Happy Pitchers and Catchers reporting Day for those who celebrate!!!
image.png.54461fb767737c8b6ede910b7dce40f5.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Glad to see you back Sparky!  Ya, it's been a lackluster winter for our area but there is some decent signals that it'll pick up in the snow dept as we close up this month.

0z EPS...pressing the cold and the snow to follow...

 

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Lakes have hardly any ice.  Just look how it moderates the temp over Michigan . Wow!

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2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Other than today, which is pretty minimal, there's nothing to even watch for in KC for the foreseeable future.  I have to believe we'll get another 1.6 inches of snow at some point to put us in the double digits for the season.  But that's a pretty lame goal.  What a rotten winter.  

Hard to believe NYC is still sitting at under 1/2 an inch for the entire season.  Could they really go an entire winter without an inch of snow?  

Winter for kc is over pretty essentially. When we get the cold air is always too late and storms are going too far north or not forming in the right locations for us. We are heading into the 2nd half of February and the LRC suggests we go into the warm boring part pretty soon. At least we have a Super Bowl win to celebrate!

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6 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Winter for kc is over pretty essentially. When we get the cold air is always too late and storms are going too far north or not forming in the right locations for us. We are heading into the 2nd half of February and the LRC suggests we go into the warm boring part pretty soon. At least we have a Super Bowl win to celebrate!

Unless next week's event trends way south, the same can be said for here. 20 day winter for mby. After the last 2 weak sauce winters here, I thought it couldn't get worse. Then I heard Ma Nature whisper "hold my beer"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

When we get the cold air is always too late and storms are going too far north or not forming in the right locations for us.

This describes about the last ten winters here in Topeka...you'd think just by dumb luck we might be in the right place once in a while...but nope.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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It appears we get one moderate storm (today) and then it's back to the northern plains and Minnesota getting dumped on for the rest of winter.  All the models appear to be locked into a ton of snow up there next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Even TOP has mentioned this system in this afternoon's (2/16) AFD. I bet we get a storm thread started for this fairly soon.

"...By the middle of next week, a more interesting pattern begins to take place as much colder air builds over the Northern Plains and a deep upper trough digs into the western US. Low pressure should eventually developing in the lee of the Rockies and sweep northeast across the Plains, with the eventual impacts to our area depending on the track and strength of the low. Given current ensemble probabilities, we seem more likely to stay on the warm side of the system, but there`s plenty of time to allow these details to come into focus."

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Quote
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
515 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023



Next week:

The primary feature of interest next week is an amplifying
longwave trough over the western U.S., which is well resolved by
both the ensembles and deterministic models. An associated
shortwave trough is forecast to eject northeast from that trough
into the northern and central Plains by about next Wednesday with
the WPC indicating a 30-50% probability of > 0.25" liquid-
equivalent across the northern half of our area between 6 AM
Wednesday and 6 AM Thursday. It`s quite possible, if not likely,
that the timing and track of that shortwave trough will change
between now and then. Nonetheless, the current models indicate the
potential for another accumulating snow event by the middle of
next week.

 

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We’re experiencing typical late winter weather.  Highs 48-50. Lows 30-32.  
Clear and cold.  
These sunny cold days are actually very pleasant and I store up these memories to keep me going in August and September.   
We’re sitting at 39* clear dry skies.  


Also …Snow forecast for Mars today. -190*F.   I wonder what cross country skiing would be like on Mars!?   

 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Satellite picture from earlier today. You can clearly make out individual cities (Sioux Falls, Fargo, Grand Forks, Twin Cities) from the lack of snow around them. Must be from UHI?

COD-GOES-East-subregional-N_Plains.truecolor.20230216.222117-over=map-bars=none.gif

I always thought that's from all of the buildings, plowed streets, etc giving it a darker appearance. Also forests in other larger darkish areas? 

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