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June 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Hope you had a phenomenal trip with the fam! The last time I went on a cruise was way back in '93, a week after the March Superstorm when I was just a kid. I'd like to take another cruise someday. The shear size of these gigantic vessels is just amazing how they build them nowadays with all the details inside the ship. I bet you had a blast.

 

I decided to extend this post and add some longer range thoughts as I believe the GEFS are starting to line up with my thoughts and the LRC. Did the GEFS take the lead again advertising Tropical Trouble down in the Gulf??? I believe so. Why you ask?? I use the LRC's cycle #1 during the summer season bc they tend to behave similarly as the jet relaxes quite a bit during this season and back in October the jet is beginning to intensify. Anyway, back during Oct 22nd-25th, we had a GOMEX low that tracked up from the Gulf states, specifically on the 22nd/23rd. Today's 12z GEFS sure look identical and match up to the LRC's pattern down in the Gulf around the 12th/13th of the month. We won't have a GL bomb, but the system near the Gulf matches up quite well. It's going to be busy season in the Gulf states.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

 

 

What happens after that is quite interesting and I think we will start seeing more amplifying troughs as the waters in the NE PAC have warmed up significantly last month as @OkWx showed in the Summer thread. Back on Oct 18th-23rd, the Polar Vortex retrograded west into Alaska and then ultimately blossomed a NE PAC ridge on the 24th. Now, check this out, what happens in the NE PAC??? Right after the GOM Tropical System??? A monster NE PAC ridge forms and a nasty looking Aleutian Low! Wow, if your not a believer of this great long range tool I'm not sure how close this can come to illustrate its strength.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_47.png

 

 

BTW, remember how dry the models were Week 2....??? I said it would turn wet across the MW/GL's and presto..."ring of fire" baby....

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_2.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_32.png

Tom, that blocking HP up northwest will be the first dent in this summers armor. Pretty sure it has a 90 percent chance of verification. I didn't see that map before I wrote that.
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Tom, that blocking HP up northwest will be the first dent in this summers armor. Pretty sure it has a 90 percent chance of verification. I didn't see that map before I wrote that.

What happens 2nd half of June will be telling on how these troughs behave for the rest of Summer. I do see a heat wave or two in July though. All good if you ask me as long as pattern remains active.

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Chilly weather by Monday night and especially Tuesday nigh as temps now have a chance to drop into the mid 40s. Highs not getting outta the low to mid 60s. :huh:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What happens 2nd half of June will be telling on how these troughs behave for the rest of Summer. I do see a heat wave or two in July though. All good if you ask me as long as pattern remains active.

I do see a shot at one in July also, but I think it'll be the last one for the central CONUS. Next few heat domes will be west/ NW centered.

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Good volcanic blast out of Central America a bit ago. Don't know about any future atmospheric implications but seems likely that there will be more blasts in various places as we go along with low solar.

 

https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.sacbee.com/news/nation-world/article212456399.html&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwizv8XbyrjbAhWN94MKHY0ZAxcQqQIIDjAA&usg=AOvVaw0mLrEEPPvK7cKXefr6ZN7H

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That picture of my patio chairs tipped over was the extent of my damage. I was trying to be funny :P :P

NEJeremy: hope the damage was not too bad.

 

Jaster, lows next week in the 40s for MBY, if you can believe that. Quick warm-up though into the 80s returns and stays put.

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It's sad to see another major volcanic eruption down in Guatemala...all these volcano's erupting over the tropics are starting to spew more ash where it may impact the global climate down the road.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/least-7-killed-20-hurt-erupting-volcano-guatemala-n879686

There are a few high lats at at risk of popping also. They are near Russia. Last major high latitude eruption was near Iceland in 2010.

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Currently 61F and mostly cloudy skies. Feels great outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That picture of my patio chairs tipped over was the extent of my damage. I was trying to be funny :P :P

;) :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some really chilly weather coming for SEMI by later tanite and into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will struggle in the low 60s and lows between 40-45. Yikes. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some really chilly weather coming for SEMI by later tanite and into Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will struggle in the low 60s and lows between 40-45. Yikes. :o

I'll take that from you. I miss wearing my hoodie.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'll take that from you. I miss wearing my hoodie.

Would not be surprised if some record lows are broken or even tied!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Good Day everyone!  I am traveling to St. Louis today for about a week with a friend of mine who is in need of a medical procedure in his neck from the Laser Spine Institute.  I'm actually looking forward to get out of Chicago for a bit and do some sight seeing and check out some good spots for BBQ in "The Lou".  Models are suggesting we may get some storm action down in STL over the weekend from a hyper active "ring of fire" pattern.

 

I like what I'm seeing later next week as the models are catching onto a big change in the weather pattern which is lining up with the cyclical pattern.  If the GEFS are right, it will turn very wet across the ag belt and much cooler to the north as the ridge gets beaten down.  How far south these anticipated troughs swing through is in question but the overall theme will have storm chances for many of us on here.

 

00z EPS/GEFS are seeing the amplification of the North American 500mb pattern...

 

De7GQNnW0AElrtl.jpg

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

00z GEFS...this would help with alleviate some of the dryness across the S MW...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

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Let's see how much we can increase the soil moisture across NE/IA/MO/KS/IL over the next couple weeks...IMO, we could end up seeing some places back to normal.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

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Looks like we might actually get a forward propagating MCS tonight from the Dakotas. Hard to believe we’re already in the first week of June and we haven’t had one of these yet here this season. Low 70s today in the arrowhead and near 100 in SW MN. Not too hard to believe a system will be tracking through the area.

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From time to time, I'll post some longer range "cold season" thoughts for those who have interest (I know there a several "looky lou's" on here).  The idea early this year that we will see a -QBO for next cold season is looking very strong.  Notice the deep dip happening at 30mb and compare that to previous year's ('14-'15) and ('09-'10) with weak/mod Nino's.  Add to this, the intensification of the solar minimum which is predicted to be 4x as strong when compared to last year, folks, I am very confident that North America and Europe will see an extremely impactful cold season that is forthcoming.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt3.gif

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Last post of the morning...3 different models, all paint a wet solution, right where it has been dry in the MW.  This, would be a big deal for farmers, as well as, setting the stage for possibly beating down the drought by months end.

 

gem_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

fv3p_apcpn_us_40.png

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Safe travels Tom.

Yeah im liking the looks of a more active pattern. Grass is getting quite brown!

What a crazy year. We had winter in spring. Virtually no spring at all. Right to summer. Id like to see some nice storm action though. Thats late this year as well.

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Safe travels Tom.

Yeah im liking the looks of a more active pattern. Grass is getting quite brown!

What a crazy year. We had winter in spring. Virtually no spring at all. Right to summer. Id like to see some nice storm action though. Thats late this year as well.

Thanks bud!  Good luck on scoring some storms this week into the weekend.

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It's sad to see another major volcanic eruption down in Guatemala...all these volcano's erupting over the tropics are starting to spew more ash where it may impact the global climate down the road.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/least-7-killed-20-hurt-erupting-volcano-guatemala-n879686

 

If you follow certain outlets, they're quite sure that another ice age looms not too far over the horizon due to the expulsion of massive amounts of volcanic gasses into the atmosphere. Not only are we getting more volcano activity via the Solar Min, but we've seen a massive increase in tectonic activity as well and it's being linked to the cosmological effects of the natural rhythm of our Solar System passing thru the Galactic Ring. We entered this phase in '98 and thus kicked-off the warmer earth period with a bang. We're a little over half-way now but there's more. Some heavenly bodies are interacting with our Solar System and affecting our sun as well as the earth. All 3 things happening at once could mean we've not seen the last of the volcanoes and some long-dormant mountains could blow. The Kilauea activity is also related to these influences. They also mentioned the hundreds of quakes measured in the Yellowstone area, but feel that a mammoth detonation is less likely since that requires a pressure build-up and there's really no magma dome build-up since that "went big" a long time ago. More likely it would go into a "building phase" of magma oozing out and cones beginning to reform the prior landscape as it had been in the distant past prior to the mega-blast. Let's hope they're correct on that one. Mt. Rainer was mentioned as an American candidate however. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If you follow certain outlets, they're quite sure that another ice age looms not too far over the horizon due to the expulsion of massive amounts of volcanic gasses into the atmosphere. Not only are we getting more volcano activity via the Solar Min, but we've seen a massive increase in tectonic activity as well and it's being linked to the cosmological effects of the natural rhythm of our Solar System passing thru the Galactic Ring. We entered this phase in '98 and thus kicked-off the warmer earth period with a bang. We're a little over half-way now but there's more. Some heavenly bodies are interacting with our Solar System and affecting our sun as well as the earth. All 3 things happening at once could mean we've not seen the last of the volcanoes and some long-dormant mountains could blow. The Kilauea activity is also related to these influences. They also mentioned the hundreds of quakes measured in the Yellowstone area, but feel that a mammoth detonation is less likely since that requires a pressure build-up and there's really no magma dome build-up since that "went big" a long time ago. More likely it would go into a "building phase" of magma oozing out and cones beginning to reform the prior landscape as it had been in the distant past prior to the mega-blast. Let's hope they're correct on that one. Mt. Rainer was mentioned as an American candidate however.

To my knowledge, Mt. Shasta and a few other California volcanoes are up on the hotlist as well over the coming years. I'm watching the ones over 50°N (Russia) the closest though because they can take as little as 6-10 months to rapily influence N.Hem weather patterns vs up to 18-24 months for a low lat volcano. Either way, I don't doubt over the next decade that the climate is going to modulate itself a fair bit regardless. The abrupt change in the Atlantic is the first major clue here. When the Pacific follows over the next year, a lot of modern analogs, processes, and computer sims of climate dating from the mid-late 90s will go in the trash. Ultra low solar min after a double-spike QBO is an anomaly never seen before either but if we're at the peak of warm for our era (I believe we are), it doesn't leave many guesses as to what's next.

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Cold front produced heavy rain around here. Cells were small and it looks like here in Cedar Rapids, not all areas of town got rain. I got about 0.3 inches here. Hopefully we get more widespread complxes of storms later this week into this weekend.

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Finally got the opportunity to post something..been really busy today. Anyways, after my dinner reservations tanite, when I walked out, it felt like fricken October w temps in the upper 40s and a wcf of 39F, if you can believe that.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 The overnight low here at my house was 47° and at GRR the official low looks to be 48° so not quite as cold as forecasted for last night. It might be just me not being in the right spot at the right time but I have not seen a real good thunderstorm now for at least 3 years. In fact I can not recall the last time I seen a good window raddling storm. Right now I have clear skies and a current temperature of 55°

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Heavy rains and vivid lightning rolling through as the alarm clock sounds. Love an early morning storm. Best way to start the day.

Here to your SE it has been a long time since I have seen a big time thunderstorm. I know there will be some who will disagree with me on that one. While there have been some storms they have not been big time lightning and thunder producers . 

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It could not be any more pleasant than it has been so far today.  Thick clouds from convection to the nw has kept the temp in the 60s while 40s dews advected in from the east.  I'm not sure if we'll be able to get the storms later, though.

 

Cold front produced heavy rain around here. Cells were small and it looks like here in Cedar Rapids, not all areas of town got rain. I got about 0.3 inches here. Hopefully we get more widespread complxes of storms later this week into this weekend.

 

Only a few sprinkles here on the west side.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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