June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

The 12Z GFS is warm and ridgy after our little excursion troughville next weekend.

We'll be due...

[TT-SEA]

We'll be due...

 

Its a MJJ summer.

 

August will be very wet.   Take to the bank!  

[Deweydog]

Its a MJJ summer.

 

August will be very wet. Take to the bank!

...and cold.

 

Creating a certain kind of box...

[Jesse]

...and cold.

 

Creating a certain kind of box...

I would be willing to bet you a crisp Andrew Jackson that August doesn’t end up cold. At PDX or regionally.

[TT-SEA]

I would be willing to bet you a crisp Andrew Jackson that August doesn’t end up cold. At PDX or regionally.

I will take that bet on wet!

[TT-SEA]

Nice thing about troughing to the north and west is that it keeps the marine layer from locking down. This week looks quite sunny and pleasant. Troughing to the south and east tends be very cloudy in May and June.

[Jesse]

Nice thing about troughing to the north and west is that it keeps the marine layer from locking down. This week looks quite sunny and pleasant. Troughing to the south and east tends be very cloudy in May and June.

Actual long wave troughy patterns definitely tend to be cloudier.

[TT-SEA]

Actual long wave troughy patterns definitely tend to be cloudier.

 

Also having a ULL slowly meander from California to Montana... locks in the marine layer away from the water.   

 

Nothing like that shown this week on the ECMWF surface maps.   Every day this work week is quite sunny.   Highs are still around 80 on Friday afternoon before the rain moves in on Saturday morning.   The weekend looks fairly showery though... from Portland northward at least.   More rain for the Oregon Cascades as well on this run.

[Jesse]

Also having a ULL slowly meander from California to Montana... locks in the marine layer away from the water.

 

Nothing like that shown this week on the ECMWF surface maps. Every day this work week is quite sunny. Highs are still around 80 on Friday afternoon before the rain moves in on Saturday morning. The weekend looks fairly showery though... from Portland northward at least.

Cool troughy June working its magic.

[MossMan]

Wet!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Believe it or not, It's actually raining here.

[TT-SEA]

Wet!!

 

Partly and sunny dry here... very nice morning.    

[Deweydog]

I would be willing to bet you a crisp Andrew Jackson that August doesn’t end up cold. At PDX or regionally.

You're thinking with your emotions. If June ends up even modestly warm and July is pretty hott, August will have some real room to work.

 

Make it a Grover Cleveland and you have a deal!

[Jesse]

You're thinking with your emotions. If June ends up even modestly warm and July is pretty hott, August will have some real room to work.

 

Make it a Grover Cleveland and you have a deal!

You are being patronizing as usual. It’s generally a pretty tall order these days, regardless of what June and July do. We’ll see who’s right. There was a very similar discussion last summer.

[Deweydog]

You are being patronizing as usual. It’s generally a pretty tall order these days, regardless of what June and July do. We’ll see who’s right. There was a very similar discussion last summer.

B+!!!

 

I'll donate blood if it'll help.

[MossMan]

Partly and sunny dry here... very nice morning.

Been moderate rain now for almost 2 hours...everything is getting a nice soaking!

[Deweydog]

Been moderate rain now for almost 2 hours...everything is getting a nice soaking!

F*ck you!!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Believe it or not, It's actually raining here.

Dry here. Sun breaking thru

[Phil]

12z ECMWF is troughalicious. Enjoy!

[Phil]

Misting and 57 degrees here at 4pm, and we’ve spent the entire day outside enjoying it. Best June weather we’ve had in years. Plan is to jog to the Potomac and light up later this evening. #paradise

[Jesse]

Misting and 57 degrees here at 4pm, and we’ve spent the entire day outside enjoying it. Best June weather we’ve had in years. Plan is to jog to the Potomac and light up later this evening. #paradise

So jealous. Our Junes used to have days like that.

[Farmboy]

[TT-SEA]

12z ECMWF is troughalicious. Enjoy!

Two days with meaningful rain out of 10.

[TT-SEA]

If it was guaranteed very hot and humid all summer... I could enjoy a 57 degree drizzly day too. We all want we don't get very often.

[El Nina]

If it was guaranteed very hot and humid all summer... I could enjoy a 57 degree drizzly day too. We all want we don't get very often.

Some of us.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Misting and 57 degrees here at 4pm, and we’ve spent the entire day outside enjoying it. Best June weather we’ve had in years. Plan is to jog to the Potomac and light up later this evening. #paradise

 

What's your strain? Been enjoying banner and lemon kush lately.

[Phil]

What's your strain? Been enjoying banner and lemon kush lately.

Just ACDC for me tonight since I’ll need my head tomorrow, but my favorites are trainwreck and white russian. My gf usually goes with purple haze or sometimes sour diesel.

[Phil]

[Phil]

The D7 12z EPS is something out of Jesse’s wildest dreams.

 

 

Though, as expected, the return to ridging begins during the third week of June, as the NPAC jet extends under the influence of diabatic heat release from WPAC forcing.

 

[Phil]

FWIW, the tropical forcing is propagating somewhat faster than originally indicated (the wave is shallower).

 

So while this troughy period might end ~ 5-6 days ahead of schedule, the warm/ridgy episode from late June to mid-July is looking less impressive as well.

 

And if the -AMO/-AMM cell (equatorward IO/ATL ITCZ) sustains into August, then you can bet on some legitimate late summer troughing.

 

We haven’t had a legit -AMO/-AMM August since the middle 1990s, and nothing like this since the 1970s/80s. So if this actually happens, you can toss all post-1995 analogs for the month of August.

[Deweydog]

FWIW, the tropical forcing is propagating somewhat faster than originally indicated (the wave is shallower).

 

So while this troughy period might end ~ 5-6 days ahead of schedule, the warm/ridgy episode from late June to mid-July is looking less impressive as well.

 

And if the -AMO/-AMM cell (equatorward IO/ATL ITCZ) sustains into August, then you can bet on some legitimate late summer troughing.

 

We haven’t had a legit -AMO/-AMM August since the middle 1990s, and nothing like this since the 1970s/80s. So if this actually happens, you can toss all post-1995 analogs for the month of August.

Troughing in August is not possible, you goof.

[Phil]

Troughing in August is not possible, you goof.

Well . Why didn’t you tell me that earlier?

 

Dickface.

[Deweydog]

Well s**t. Why didn’t you tell me that earlier?

 

Dickface.

It's in the bible. Old and new testament.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FWIW, the tropical forcing is propagating somewhat faster than originally indicated (the wave is shallower).

 

So while this troughy period might end ~ 5-6 days ahead of schedule, the warm/ridgy episode from late June to mid-July is looking less impressive as well.

 

And if the -AMO/-AMM cell (equatorward IO/ATL ITCZ) sustains into August, then you can bet on some legitimate late summer troughing.

 

We haven’t had a legit -AMO/-AMM August since the middle 1990s, and nothing like this since the 1970s/80s. So if this actually happens, you can toss all post-1995 analogs for the month of August.

Hopefully all this atmospheric shuffling can get us back into the feel of the pre-1996 winter era where, at least to me, it felt like lowland snow was way more common. I feel like I vaguely remember numerous regional snow events in the early 1990s from my childhood.

[Jesse]

Troughing in August is not possible, you goof.

Troughing in August is very possible.

 

The last few decades tell us that a below average August region wide is very difficult to achieve, though.

[Jesse]

Surprised to see some echoes making it into the west metro.

 

Likely won’t amount to much but maybe enough to settle the dust/pollen.

[Deweydog]

Juggernaut!!!

[Jesse]

The D7 12z EPS is something out of Jesse’s wildest dreams.

 

Though, as expected, the return to ridging begins during the third week of June, as the NPAC jet extends under the influence of diabatic heat release from WPAC forcing.

 

 

You need to cut down the hyperbole a little buddy. The troughing that is moving over us currently looked just as impressive at that range. The end result is looking like highs dropping to near average (low 70s) for a few days.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Dry here. Sun breaking thru

 

No sun here, but the rain hasn't amount to much, only around 0.04".

[TT-SEA]

No sun here, but the rain hasn't amount to much, only around 0.04".

 

Radar looks active here... but just sprinkles with the sun visible through the clouds.