ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I'm certainly no expert on ocean temp's or currents. The hot stuff appears to be focused at a depth of 500 ft (give or take). Now, that seems deep but if the Pacific in that region is 5000 ft deep, then we're only talking the upper 10%. Practically the surface, lol. Now, is this ~12F increase caused by under water volcanoes? or something else? Heat normally rises so why is this staying at that depth?

[Tom]

Are we looking at an El Niño Modokai ?

That's the expectation.

 

I'm certainly no expert on ocean temp's or currents. The hot stuff appears to be focused at a depth of 500 ft (give or take). Now, that seems deep but if the Pacific in that region is 5000 ft deep, then we're only talking the upper 10%. Practically the surface, lol. Now, is this ~12F increase caused by under water volcanoes? or something else? Heat normally rises so why is this staying at that depth?

I'll be honest, I have no idea, but I've been studying/reading more about underground volcanoes warming parts of the oceans, esp in the Arctic/Antarctic regions.

[Andie]

That's the expectation.

 

 

I'll be honest, I have no idea, but I've been studying/reading more about underground volcanoes warming parts of the oceans, esp in the Arctic/Antarctic regions.

Thanks. Thought maybe so.

 

I've read on underwater volcanoes for some time. There are at least a million volcanoes of varying size, fissures, and fumerols in the oceans. Not to mention methane hydrate, which we should all be glad it's frozen and under great pressure.

The Antarctic has a considerable amount of volcanic activity under the ice sheet that has been breaking off so much. Many blame AGW but they refuse to acknoledge the geology. I suspect Antarctica has many wonderful mysteries in its pockets.

The Atlantic has the Mid Atlantic ridge which is rich in fissures and culminates in Icelands activities. The ocean is truly the womb of life for the earth. Without the chemicals and energy we receive from the ocean volcanic activity we'd be a dead planet.

[OKwx2k4]

My personal belief is that enso state has a lot to do with the sun. Its almost traceable with solar and has a similar long term cycle structure.

[Niko]

Latest on ENSO:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Tom]

The modoki Nino flavor is showing itself over the last couple weeks.  Big spike in SST's across the central PAC ENSO 3.4 region...

 

 

 

This season, may be on it's own in terms of placement of critical warm/cold pools across the entire PAC.  For instance, back in '02/'03 the warm blob was present in the NE PAC but it had a weaker modoki signal.  This year, the warm blob is nearly in the same position, however, the central PAC is growing much warmer.  Could this be the fuel that keeps the fire burning all season long???  Meaning, does the STJ keep loading up as we progress towards winter??  I think so, the warm/cold/warm from north to south in the PAC is a really ideal set up.  Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning.  

 

[jaster220]

The modoki Nino flavor is showing itself over the last couple weeks.  Big spike in SST's across the central PAC ENSO 3.4 region...

 

 

 

This season, may be on it's own in terms of placement of critical warm/cold pools across the entire PAC.  For instance, back in '02/'03 the warm blob was present in the NE PAC but it had a weaker modoki signal.  This year, the warm blob is nearly in the same position, however, the central PAC is growing much warmer.  Could this be the fuel that keeps the fire burning all season long???  Meaning, does the STJ keep loading up as we progress towards winter??  I think so, the warm/cold/warm from north to south in the PAC is a really ideal set up.  Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning.  

 

 

 

Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning

 

So does JB

[OKwx2k4]

I fully agree Tom and Jaster.

[Tom]

The growing subsurface anomalies near the ENSO 1.2 & 3 regions is somewhat worrisome....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Recent warming trends across ENSO 3.4 & 3 regions are notable....this could promote a stronger ridging pattern along the EC.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I don't mind seeing a little more strength in the ridging off the EC. The warming in 1.2 will be short lived.

[jaster220]

Short lived or not, that's kinda yuck-worthy if you ask me. The experts were saying that this Nino (still unofficial I think) would be peaking too late to have much influence on MET winter. Is that not the case. I don't pretend to be an SME on ENSO/SOI etc.

[Niko]

Hello El Nino 2018-19

[Tom]

You know when ENSO 1.2 region is warmer than the all important 3.4 it poses a threat to a ridge in the East...no model saw this coming....

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waters are starting to warm considerably off the coast of Peru/Equador....

 

[jaster220]

@ ENSO 1.2 warmth

 

  Seems like ole Ma Nature will always get the last laugh on the "experts" eh? In a strong Nino this would be a death knell in itself. However, this hybrid whatever it is Nino is behaving strangely unlike the classic. I see peeps in New England getting ready to punt January due to the SER and lack of strong NAO. This could actually keep storms back west of the Appalachians and be good for us in the MW to GL's. Guess we'll see. What's the general lag-time between an ENSO spike and it's influence over the Lwr 48? Not sure if I remember reading the theory on that?

[OKwx2k4]

You know when ENSO 1.2 region is warmer than the all important 3.4 it poses a threat to a ridge in the East...no model saw this coming....

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waters are starting to warm considerably off the coast of Peru/Equador....

 

Yeah. 1.2 needs to get back down. It's screwing us all over right now. When in +TNH pattern, the forcing is very much direct in my opinion. I need the SER this year.

[OKwx2k4]

One positive of this is that the stage *could be* being set up for some really major stuff down the road into January and February.

[Hawkeye]

What happened to the Modoki el nino?.  The latest updates show much of the warmth in the east pac.

[Niko]

What happened to the Modoki el nino?.  The latest updates show much of the warmth in the east pac.

I'll tell you what happened, it went down the drain, that's where it went. This is a raging El Nino we are currently experiencing. Even Montreal, Ca is getting rain.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll tell you what happened, it went down the drain, that's where it went. This is a raging El Nino we are currently experiencing. Even Montreal, Ca is getting rain.

This.

F--- El Niño.

[Tom]

What happened to the Modoki el nino?.  The latest updates show much of the warmth in the east pac.

Indeed, and this poses a threat to keep the SER in place possibly longer??  Check out the sub surface anomalies...that is some pretty warm waters just below the surface.  Not only that, the SOI continues to show no signs of reversing back down negative which is typical during an El Nino season.  This El Nino has certainly not behaved like a traditional one.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[jaster220]

I'll tell you what happened, it went down the drain, that's where it went. This is a raging El Nino we are currently experiencing. Even Montreal, Ca is getting rain.

 

This.

F--- El Niño.

 

I'll tell you what happened, it went down the drain, that's where it went. This is a raging El Nino we are currently experiencing. Even Montreal, Ca is getting rain.

 

And this next storm dumping snow swath from E CO to the W UP of Mich is a classic strong Nino scenario, just see '82-83. It was wash, rinse, repeat all season long. Managed to get only one storm in SEMI right as winter ended in later March.

[Niko]

And this next storm dumping snow swath from E CO to the W UP of Mich is a classic strong Nino scenario, just see '82-83. It was wash, rinse, repeat all season long. Managed to get only one storm in SEMI right as winter ended in later March.

Next week, record high temps are possible w this strong system. Plenty of hvy downpours too. UGH!

[jaster220]

Next week, record high temps are possible w this strong system. Plenty of hvy downpours too. UGH!

 

Yep, UGH.  I'm a huge fan of sustained winter. Made it known before that I'm NOT a fan of the bouncing ball winters like we just had last season. Ofc, SMI is hardly the only region enduring this, but my personal feelings are shared by all of IN and OH peeps. Could throw KY in there as well, lol. That's tongue-in-cheek since this is their fate most winters it would seem.

[Tom]

Subtle signs the ENSO 1.2 region warmth may be subsiding???  The last couple frames are showing the sub surface waters cooling off somewhat...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Niko]

Yep, UGH.  I'm a huge fan of sustained winter. Made it known before that I'm NOT a fan of the bouncing ball winters like we just had last season. Ofc, SMI is hardly the only region enduring this, but my personal feelings are shared by all of IN and OH peeps. Could throw KY in there as well, lol. That's tongue-in-cheek since this is their fate most winters it would seem.

Hopefully, Winter will show its furry in January and February. Its too bad we had to lose December.

[jaster220]

Subtle signs the ENSO 1.2 region warmth may be subsiding???  The last couple frames are showing the sub surface waters cooling off somewhat...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

That would help all of us, but those furthest S and E really, really need that to happen

[Hawkeye]

Can someone remind me how warmth focused in the east pac vs central pac tends to affect the pattern over the US?

[Tom]

Can someone remind me how warmth focused in the east pac vs central pac tends to affect the pattern over the US?

Warm waters focused across the eastern PAC contribute to ridging along the south and east coasts.  If you can remember, this was a devil to the forecast 2 years ago when ENSO 1.2 torched late that Winter and the massive Feb ridge blossomed and torched the entire country east of the Rockies.

 

Jan 23rd, 2017...

 

 

 

Feb 16, 2017...

 

 

 

 

 

When waters warm in the central PAC, it causes convection and thunderstorms to develop in the central PAC and typically produces a trough to it's north in the Winter time.  In result, you the tendency to produce an Aleutian Low which creates a trough downstream across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  Hope this helps.

[Tom]

With that beings said, ENSO 1.2 starting to cool off a lot and the SOI is beginning to head lower...changes are coming...