ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, wouldn't this be something...CFS flashing snow falling in late Sep out in the Plains...what a run, likely be gone next run, but I've never seen this model flash snow in late Sept that far down south in my years of watching this model. Crazy.

 

 

 

 

Very few may believe me but back in September 2015 (I think. Could be a year off)it sleeted here at my house at around 3 am but that's the closest to winter precip I have ever seen in September. Saw snow fall on my birthday in October 2001 for around an hour. That's the earliest wintry precipitation I know of. I've never saw a model show snow in September here. Not ever. Maybe panhandle at night on like September 30th or something but never that early.

[Tom]

Well, I was wrong, the CFS yet again paints snow across the Plains in late Sept!  This model is seeing something and I'm not going to put a finger on it just yet, but if these type of runs continue into next month, then you really have to sit back and wonder how to interpret the signal going forward.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

September..

 

October..

 

November

 

CFS appears to be switching to a longer term cool pattern in the longer ranges.

[Tom]

September..

CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_MONTHLY_E_2.png

 

October..

CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_MONTHLY_E_3.png

 

November

CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_MONTHLY_E_4.png

 

CFS appears to be switching to a longer term cool pattern in the longer ranges.

Ummm, ya, if the CFS continues to show maps like these by Sept 1st, I'll be all-in on an #iceage Winter for the U.S.  Not gonna lie, my gut is saying the upcoming cold season will be something special for the CONUS.  I have never been this confident on a season going forward.  Truly, I'm seeing a lot of factors that are aligning to support that idea but we need to get through met Summer first.  I'm rooting for an extreme winter my friend.  A winter, you will finally get to enjoy down your way!

[OKwx2k4]

Ummm, ya, if the CFS continues to show maps like these by Sept 1st, I'll be all-in on an #iceage Winter for the U.S. Not gonna lie, my gut is saying the upcoming cold season will be something special for the CONUS. I have never been this confident on a season going forward. Truly, I'm seeing a lot of factors that are aligning to support that idea but we need to get through met Summer first. I'm rooting for an extreme winter my friend. A winter, you will finally get to enjoy down your way!

True. Gotta get there first. From what I saw last night, models aren't even showing a hot remainder of July anymore for most of the US. Just seems like an early end to summer remains the favored outcome from a few months ago. Just nice to see model support showing up for those ideas. May finally get that beautiful autumn I was hoping for last year and never got.

[Tom]

True. Gotta get there first. From what I saw last night, models aren't even showing a hot remainder of July anymore for most of the US. Just seems like an early end to summer remains the favored outcome from a few months ago. Just nice to see model support showing up for those ideas. May finally get that beautiful autumn I was hoping for last year and never got.

Your patience will be rewarded. It’s a matter of time as the universal law of averages work in your favor this year. A moderate Nino also helps to carve out a southern stream storm track. Hope your score Bigly!

[OKwx2k4]

Your patience will be rewarded. It’s a matter of time as the universal law of averages work in your favor this year. A moderate Nino also helps to carve out a southern stream storm track. Hope your score Bigly!

Yeah, that's one thing I have already established. There's no way the storm track behaves like it did to my NW the last 3 years. There are already a lot of major differences now vs the last several years. First summer in many that it has actually felt like summer for 2 months this early. I just really have a special feeling about this one (winter,fall). If law of averages holds, the next 35 years should be awesome.

[OKwx2k4]

Seeing a -EPO and -NAO pop up occasionally this early in the year, with no sunspots, starts to stack the deck in a positive way also.

[Tom]

Seeing a -EPO and -NAO pop up occasionally this early in the year, with no sunspots, starts to stack the deck in a positive way also.

The -QBO is gonna do its dirty work this year. It will be a longggg season, esp if the PV splits early.

[OKwx2k4]

The -QBO is gonna do its dirty work this year. It will be a longggg season, esp if the PV splits early.

Yes. That's what the facts are starting to add up to.

[Tom]

Yes. That's what the facts are starting to add up to.

I just read that the latest ECMWF seasonal suggests a slow start to winter in the northeast which fits my thinking of early season ridging along the east coast.  Signs pointing to an early season trough carved out in the central CONUS.

[james1976]

Is this why the Locust have been singing for the past week? Haha. I could be wrong but that usually doesnt happwn til August around here.

[Minny_Weather]

So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.

[OKwx2k4]

So I just saw the CPC outlook for OND, and it's looking like a moderate Nino then. What I did is I took every year here that had an ENSO of +1.5 to +2.0 in Lincoln in the OND period, because I think that's what we'll be looking at then, and compared it to each of those Winters. The Winters with an ENSO in that window were 1955, 1965, 1972, 1982, 2002, and 2009. 1982 was 2.2, but I figured it's better to err over than under with this one so I included it. I don't see PDO being too much of a factor with the strength of this Nino, but I'll mention that it is weakly positive. We're in a period where PDO is naturally warm, big whoop. I think the ENSO will be main factor in the Pacific this year. I noticed that El Nino Winters tend to be way more front-loaded, then back off as the year goes on. However, that seems to not quite be the case with moderate Ninos. Of the years I listed, only the Winters of 1972-73 and 2009-10 had their snowiest month be in the OND period in Lincoln. Then I looked at temperatures, and most of them had one thing in common: All of those years I listed except 1955 had fast starts to Fall. September was well below normal, and October was cold. However, every year I listed except 2009 brought no significant cold snaps once Thanksgiving hit all the way throughout December. Hopefully this year ends up like a 2009, even though 2009 had a -PDO.

Good post sir.

[Minny_Weather]

Good post sir.

Don't assume my gender.

 

But thank you, madame.

[Tom]

Here's the latest ECMWF ENSO Nino plume...looks similar to the CFSv2 in terms of strength...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Don't assume my gender.

 

But thank you, madame.

Touché. Apologies.

[Tom]

The NMME ensemble suite not as bullish on the strength of the NINO...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.NMME.png

[Tom]

Hot off the press and the latest JAMSTEC model backed off from the previous months idea of the Nino peaking near the Strong category.  The size and over strength subsided this run.

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Autumn...some notable changes I've notice that popped up on this run is the cooling of SST's compared to previous runs just south of the Aleutians and more warmth across W/NW NAMER.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2018.1jul2018.gif

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Modoki NINO forecast looking solid...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1jul2018.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. ).

[Tom]

Forecasts starting to go with the +0.9° to +1.1°C range now. I like that better than a 1.4+ because, while giving appearance of a Modoki Niño, it (temps, forcing) does appear to be a little east of where I'd like to see. Hopefully the lower Niño will be a help. There's also still the backdoor possibility that we're not talking about anything but warm-neutral after October anyway and this is all for naught after all. Late 70s and 1910s are the 2 biggest guides here along with 2013, 2009, 2002, and some practical wx imput from 2000 and 2008, although the latter two are different ENSO, PDO, and likely QBO (I have my reasons. ).

At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream.  Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC.  What are your thoughts on that?

 

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season.  I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation.  Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther.  I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

 

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season.  When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop.  Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada.  I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.  

 

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October! 

[Tom]

JMA monthlies showing convection to spark in the central PAC going forward suggesting the beginnings of the central-based (modoki) Nino will emerge.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

SST's by Sept indicating a better "look" across the central PAC with a blip of warmer waters forming right, dead center in the central PAC.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201807.D1000_gls.png

 

 

By Oct, it grows a bit but not to much...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201807.D1000_gls.png

[OKwx2k4]

At this distance, a peak near +1.0C to +1.2C seems about right, which, in my opinion, should allow for an amped up STJ to be a big influence in the jet stream. Now, I know your paying attn to the "warm ring" in the NE PAC. What are your thoughts on that?

 

I recall back in '15-'16, during the Super Nino, we had the +PDO but the PAC just overwhelmed the pattern across NAMER and resulted in a blow torch season. I doubt we see that this season and we'll likely see convection in the central PAC, near Hawaii, which is ideally the best spot to produce a colder season across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. Marry that with the "warm ring" and it influences the NW NAMER ridge even farther. I'm extremely curious to see how the LRC evolves in Oct/Nov bc when I see the CFSv2 paint this SST configuration during the heart of the developing "new" pattern, you can get a bit giddy.

 

My gut tells me it will be another action packed central CONUS storm track early on in the season. When the high lat blocking overwhelms the pattern mid/late winter, I could see suppressed pattern develop. Depending on when, not IF, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event takes place (I think in Jan), this will complete the PV split and HP takes over the Pole and across Canada. I really feel this is going to be a good season, maybe a great one, for you down south.

 

Hey, only 4.5 months till met Winter and 2.5 months till October!

I think you hit the nail on the head. Few more events to look for or sit and observe over the next few weeks but right now, things are running down a pretty good track for a nice close to summer, a beautiful autumn and a possible fast starting winter. Seeing more rainfall chances routinely verify and some different types of wx patterns vs the norm of the last 4-5 years is always a positive sign that something new is ahead for once and that the atmosphere is doing a decent job of responding to ENSO already. That only adds to my confidence that my initial and very early call for a "head-fake" was wrong and that the Niño is here to stay. Love the NPac look. Just gotta get that ridge out west soon to carry things into Fall and heat the NEpac to last into winter. As Tom said, an active EPO and SSW with that set-up in place already, would be enough to go boldly with a colder forecast if all were to work out. Those 2 points alone could be what drives the whole winter.

[Tom]

In a perfect world, I'd like to see the warm blob just underneath the surface of the water near 120W to shift a bit farther west in time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[westMJim]

As of this morning here is summery of how July 2018 has been around the state of Michigan. The list is the station, mean temperature, departure from average, rain fall for July and the number of days of 90 or better so far this summer. Grand Rapids 75.6 (+3.1) 2.21” 15 days of 90 or better. Lansing 74.2 (+2.6) 0.89” 15 days. Muskegon 74.5 (+3.4) 1.31” 9 days. Detroit mean 76.6 (+2.9) 0.90” 17 days of 90 or better. Flint 72.3 (+1.7) 1.13” 12 days. Saginaw 74.2 (+3.1) 1.24” 10 days of 90 or more. Alpena 72.2 (+4.9) 2.05” 13 days of 90 or better. Houghton Lake 71.1 (+4.0) 2.57” 8 days of 90 or better.  Sault Ste Marie 71.3 (+6.2) 1.14” 5 days of 90 or better. Marquette 67.6 (2.1) 2.48” only 1 day of 90 or better.

As you can see the warmest location is Detroit the warmest compared to average is Sault Ste Marie the coolest location is Marquette.  

[Tom]

If these type of trade winds continue across the equatorial PAC, we may see models back off some on the strength of the Nino next month.

 

[OKwx2k4]

In a perfect world, I'd like to see the warm blob just underneath the surface of the water near 120W to shift a bit farther west in time.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Yes. I think if we don't want to see the cold fronts slide off the SE coast, we need to see a west shift. Maybe not but I thought same thing.

[OKwx2k4]

If these type of trade winds continue across the equatorial PAC, we may see models back off some on the strength of the Nino next month.

 

Puts head-fake to warm neutral back on the table too.

[OKwx2k4]

Looking like I should have stuck with my initial call for the "head-fake" at the very beginning. I was pretty solid on that decision when I made it. Neutral winter 2018 is where I'm going to lock in at and if I'm wrong, well, we all know it wouldn't be the first nor will it be the last time for sure. -AO, EPO, and -NAO for the win.

[Tom]

Looking like I should have stuck with my initial call for the "head-fake" at the very beginning. I was pretty solid on that decision when I made it. Neutral winter 2018 is where I'm going to lock in at and if I'm wrong, well, we all know it wouldn't be the first nor will it be the last time for sure. -AO, EPO, and -NAO for the win.

You still thinking warm ENSO-Neutral???  At the minimum, I'm a believer a weak Nino is in the cards.  I do see evidence of the models backing off of the "wamer" look.  For instance, the CFSv2 has clearly "cooled" its look over the central PAC over the last 30 days for its August outlook.

 

July 1st run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180701.201808.gif

 

Today's last run for July...I mean, it literally trended from a borderline mod/strong Nino, into a weak Nino!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180731.201808.gif

[OKwx2k4]

You still thinking warm ENSO-Neutral??? At the minimum, I'm a believer a weak Nino is in the cards. I do see evidence of the models backing off of the "wamer" look. For instance, the CFSv2 has clearly "cooled" its look over the central PAC over the last 30 days for its August outlook.

 

July 1st run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180701.201808.gif

 

Today's last run for July...I mean, it literally trended from a borderline mod/strong Nino, into a weak Nino!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180731.201808.gif

While we may waffle around the .5 mark for a few months to close the year, in terms of "official" Niño, (whatever that is nowadays with the movable parameters climatologists love to use) I just can't say we get there in the trimonthlies. I'm going to lock that in for good. I should have back in May when I was thinking that way initially.

[Tom]

I'm hearing the latest Euro Seasonal showed another downtrend in the strength of the modoki Nino.  Signaling the idea of a weak central-based Nino may be in the cards.  JAMSTEC comes out later this week and I'm very curious to see if it, to, trends lower in strength.

[OKwx2k4]

The next Niño burst will pop right over the dateline. While it still will not be enough to get a Niño off the ground, seeing the forcing shift west and the Alutian low develop over the top of it is really the highlight I'm looking for. Don't need a real Niño to get the job done. Just enough to set a tempo and pump a little moisture. My tempered optimism took a boost, no doubt.

[OKwx2k4]

There's still room to go '09s route with this thing, which would make it a bust for me but it will have to start a fire right there and keep it going, imo, to have any chance.

 

 

I want this to be a Niño honestly. I'd be happy to be wrong if this works to set it off.

[Tom]

Here's a comparison of last months run off the Euro Seasonal to the current run showing the "cooler" Nino trends.

 

July's run...

 

 

Current run...notice the dip south for the month of August which the model is suggesting strong indication of easterlies dominating through month's end.

 

 

[Tom]

Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing.  #Ninoheadfake???  @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[jaster220]

Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing.  #Ninoheadfake???  @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I'm not an ENSO expert at all, but knowing we just had a mega-Nino in '15-16 would argue against even a modest Nino imho. It also seems like every year we go through this period of the models saying "a Nino is coming, a Nino is coming" only to have them back off. I swear these models are program biased to see everything as leading to a hot, hotter, or hottest solution. Ofc, a weak Nino traditionally treats the Lwr Lakes very well so I'd vote for that outcome any day. The rarity of it does  cause me to NOT expect it, even if models want to forecast such. In my mind, a weak Nino is one of those things in life you can only count after it has transpired, not before. It's like the 30 foot putt on the golf course. You know that over a lifetime, you'll make 1 or 2 of those, but there's no way to tell when until it happens, lol

[OKwx2k4]

Hmmm, some considerable sub-surface cooling has evolved across the equatorial PAC of late...there's even some cooler waters growing. #Ninoheadfake??? @ Okwx, your call may have been the right one buddy.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

It has obviously given a 2009 moderate style Niño flair to the atmosphere anyway though. If longer term looks are right for winter, it did exactly what it needed to do regardless of where it finishes.

[Tom]

From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC.  Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

 

Here was the June run for Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201806.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did it's doing a very good.  

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201808.D0900_gls.png

[OKwx2k4]

From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC. Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

 

Here was the June run for Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201806.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did very good.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201808.D0900_gls.png

Wow. I'd say it did very very well.