ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

From 3 months out, the JMA monthlies did a good job overall predicting the SST's across the central PAC.  Notice that it was showing a much weaker signal for the warming waters across the central PAC.

 

Here was the June run for Sept...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201806.D0500_gls.png

 

 

Current run for Sept...some subtle differences in the SST's in the N PAC, but overall, it did very good.  

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201808.D0900_gls.png

 

Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?

[OKwx2k4]

Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?

Hes just covering the month to month changes in the forecast. They were comparisons between last months Sept forecast vs this month's.

[jaster220]

Hes just covering the month to month changes in the forecast. They were comparisons between last months Sept forecast vs this month's.

 

K, I can get that. Just that his past-tense wording threw me, lol 

 

Things could change dramatically tho in a month's time (mid-Sept), but it seems that his arguement is that the waters will continue to trend cooler in region 3.4 thus away from a significant Nino signal. Sounds like he's betting on the JMA painting a more accurate picture for next winter. 

[Tom]

Ya lost me there buddy. It's still August so how can we tell how it did for next month? Did I miss something?

My bad, that was a grammar check.  I edited my post to reflect what I meant to say.  Anyway, I saw this post from Ryan Maue and the ribbon of warm waters across the N PAC, along with the warmth building over the ENSO 4.0 region is encouraging going forward.

 

 

I know its still way to early, but it struck me to see the opposite SST orientation when comparing the recent '16-'17 Winter that pounded the west/NW coast.  The current ribbon of warmth, nearly opposite when comparing to the ribbon of cold.  I'm really curious to see which model ends up right with what happens in the N PAC this season.  If, by the end of Oct, the waters across the NE PAC are still warm, then I'd be more confident we see a +PDO this coming cold season.

 

[Tom]

Where did all the warm water go???  Boy, what a "head fake" all the models (except the CFSv2) which have all trended cooler across the equatorial PAC.  It's no wonder that a stronger Nino is becoming less likely.  Sub surface warmth has but all dissipated dramatically in recent weeks.  Not only that, but favorable westerly bursts have been non existent.  We'll have to see how this evolves over the course of the next 4+ weeks, but I'm starting to think that a modest weak Nino is in play, instead of a stronger weak/mod event.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Notice all the cooler waters coming off of South America???  Is this a response from their record cold Winter???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Where did all the warm water go??? Boy, what a "head fake" all the models (except the CFSv2) which have all trended cooler across the equatorial PAC. It's no wonder that a stronger Nino is becoming less likely. Sub surface warmth has but all dissipated dramatically in recent weeks. Not only that, but favorable westerly bursts have been non existent. We'll have to see how this evolves over the course of the next 4+ weeks, but I'm starting to think that a modest weak Nino is in play, instead of a stronger weak/mod event.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Notice all the cooler waters coming off of South America??? Is this a response from their record cold Winter???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

Head fake indeed. Still possible we never make official Niño even, in my opinion. The great aspect of this is that eastern Niño regions look to not only stay cool but could likely cool further. Couple this with the warmth off the Baja of Mexifornia and you have the *perfect* southern stream primer. I bit at this, incorrectly in 2015 and 2016 and now know why it fails and produces monster ridges. For it to properly teleconnect to a southern branch dominant pattern, you have to go warm over cool there. The years above were warm over warm. Just another positive, if you ask me.

[Tom]

Head fake indeed. Still possible we never make official Niño even, in my opinion. The great aspect of this is that eastern Niño regions look to not only stay cool but could likely cool further. Couple this with the warmth off the Baja of Mexifornia and you have the *perfect* southern stream primer. I bit at this, incorrectly in 2015 and 2016 and now know why it fails and produces monster ridges. For it to properly teleconnect to a southern branch dominant pattern, you have to go warm over cool there. The years above were warm over warm. Just another positive, if you ask me.

Exactly, that is something I also picked up on and learned as well.  BTW, the Long Lead CPC seasonal came out with their forecast and it shows a near picture perfect scenario for Winter.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/casst_anom.3.png

 

 

However, it's 500mb/Temp forecasts are blow torch...something is wrong with this picture...the image above reminds of seeing maps in the late 70's seasons.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/cahgt_anom.3.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/cat2m_anom.3.png

[OKwx2k4]

Exactly, that is something I also picked up on and learned as well. BTW, the Long Lead CPC seasonal came out with their forecast and it shows a near picture perfect scenario for Winter.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/casst_anom.3.png

 

 

However, it's 500mb/Temp forecasts are blow torch...something is wrong with this picture...the image above reminds of seeing maps in the late 70's seasons.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/cahgt_anom.3.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201808/cat2m_anom.3.png

The blowtorch is an overstated Niño feedback in my opinion or a misread of continental Arctic HP maybe. I noted that the CFS does that and I'm not sure why.

 

Theres just nothing that supports that idea at all. Too strong, too far east.

[jaster220]

This is from a news article already a month old, but found the embolded statement worth noting.

 

The official forecast is for an El Nino that tops out at one degree Celsius warmer than average. This would be right on the line between a moderate strength and strong El Nino. It wouldn't be warm enough to forecast a warmer than average winter in Michigan with high certainty. But it would be warm enough to know that a warmer than average winter is possible.

The forecasting of ocean temperatures a few months in the future is still not real accurate. Typically we see the ocean temperature forecast change by one-half of a degree either colder or warmer as we get closer to winter.

The thing to keep an eye on is the ocean temperature forecast. If we see the models and the official forecast increasing the El Nino strength, it would be truly time to get happy or sad about Michigan's winter.

 

That +/- half a degree will make or break it for #puremichigan. Let's hope it heads in the right direction. 

[Niko]

This is from a news article already a month old, but found the embolded statement worth noting.

 

 

That +/- half a degree will make or break it for #puremichigan. Let's hope it heads in the right direction. 

[OKwx2k4]

This is from a news article already a month old, but found the embolded statement worth noting.

 

 

That +/- half a degree will make or break it for #puremichigan. Let's hope it heads in the right direction.

I think you're going to be just fine buddy.

 

#winteriscoming

[jaster220]

I think you're going to be just fine buddy.

 

#winteriscoming

 

Thanks, but I like where yby sits on this season my friend, and I just summarized my thoughts in the Prelim winter thd for why, lol

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks, but I like where yby sits on this season my friend, and I just summarized my thoughts in the Prelim winter thd for why, lol

Excellent job!

 

I'm actually so excited that I'm nervous about this winter. I think ENSO is going exactly like I want it to go. Perfection.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll add, while I'm here, I think ENSO will crash back down in 1.2 and slowly warm the CP back up at the surface. I think still that what we'll see in 1.2 may as well be called the double head fake. It will go away about like the 1st round and 3.4 will carry the effects/feedbacks on atmosphere. I dont think we can make official status at this point but I've seen stranger things.

[jaster220]

I'll add, while I'm here, I think ENSO will crash back down in 1.2 and slowly warm the CP back up at the surface. I think still that what we'll see in 1.2 may as well be called the double head fake. It will go away about like the 1st round and 3.4 will carry the effects/feedbacks on atmosphere. I dont think we can make official status at this point but I've seen stranger things.

 

Are you thinking the Nino will end up a Modoki as well then?

[Tom]

Are you thinking the Nino will end up a Modoki as well then?

It certainly does look plausible, esp with a slight SOI crash going on now and into the future.  Big blob of warm sub surface waters brewing...centered across the central PAC

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Are you thinking the Nino will end up a Modoki as well then?

I believe the warmest place will be more in line with modoki type Ninos. I think it has time to drift closer to dateline, it's just getting it to surface fast enough and long enough to get Niño officially that will be the hardest part.

[jaster220]

I believe the warmest place will be more in line with modoki type Ninos. I think it has time to drift closer to dateline, it's just getting it to surface fast enough and long enough to get Niño officially that will be the hardest part.

 

Yeah, sadly we're tugging on opposite ends of the rope, lol. You need it leaning more Nino and I need it leaning more neutral-ish. IF we should end up splitting the difference we all WIN 

[OKwx2k4]

IF we should end up splitting the difference we all WIN

That's EXACTLY what I've been saying is going to happen. We win man. It's going to be perfect. I did a poor job of describing it but that is how we split the difference.

 

Cooling/crashing 1.2 with a weak, warm-neutral 3.4 with a warm Baja over top of 1.2. Tri-pole of warm water is locked into the Bering sea. We win.

[jaster220]

There's quite a bit of debate elsewhere as to whether we have/will have an actual Nino or not?? And, more importantly to our net results atmospherically speaking, what type it will be. Per this from Michael Ventrice, the Pacific is indeed acting like a Modoki type Nino for all intents and purposes via this nifty map showing where forcing is best defined. And per comments by others, we're running out of time for anything different to happen that would happen quickly enough to impact our winter months in any meaningful manner. All good news if you're riding analogs of a weak Modoki Nino as I am.

 

[Niko]

Per Weather2020

 

The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

Good morning folks:

 

The fun is about to begin.........

 

The old pattern is almost over.  The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin.  Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be  quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.

Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-01-at-6.59.36-AM-640x452.png

 

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning.  Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern.  This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year.  The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance.  Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/1-640x435.png

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2-640x435.png

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/3-640x398.png

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

 

Fun times ahead folks!

[Thunder98]

Interesting El Nino analysis from Howard Sheckter of Mammoth Weather

 

10/04/2018

"The Dweebs had a peak at the latest CPC, CFSv2 Nino SST Forecast through the winter of 2019

This is in reference to The El Nino that’s currently building.

The most remarkable point to make is that in looking at yesterdays forecast numbers, it only shows a few tenths of a degree Celsius difference in the Nino 3.4-3 region as compared to the Nino 1+2 region. The prind point here is that there is not as much support of a Modoki type El Nino in the latest guidance as compared to last month for the upcoming January.  In addition, the trend is away from a Modoki type event. The El Nino forecasted is more suggested of a quasi full basin type. However, what it also shows is that it is weak to moderate El Nino.  More later after the 11th. I will report on the state of the El Nino Forecasted, later in October."

 

https://mammothweather.com/2018/10/01/forecast-models-have-now-converged-on-a-wetter-solution-for-the-sierra-with-anywhere-from-between1-2-inch-to-up-to-an-inch-of-precip-through-this-thursday-the-snow-level-for-most-of-the-event-wil/

[OKwx2k4]

Interesting El Nino analysis from Howard Sheckter of Mammoth Weather

10/04/2018

"The Dweebs had a peak at the latest CPC, CFSv2 Nino SST Forecast through the winter of 2019

This is in reference to The El Nino that’s currently building.

The most remarkable point to make is that in looking at yesterdays forecast numbers, it only shows a few tenths of a degree Celsius difference in the Nino 3.4-3 region as compared to the Nino 1+2 region. The prind point here is that there is not as much support of a Modoki type El Nino in the latest guidance as compared to last month for the upcoming January. In addition, the trend is away from a Modoki type event. The El Nino forecasted is more suggested of a quasi full basin type. However, what it also shows is that it is weak to moderate El Nino. More later after the 11th. I will report on the state of the El Nino Forecasted, later in October."

https://mammothweather.com/2018/10/01/forecast-models-have-now-converged-on-a-wetter-solution-for-the-sierra-with-anywhere-from-between1-2-inch-to-up-to-an-inch-of-precip-through-this-thursday-the-snow-level-for-most-of-the-event-wil/

I'm actually maybe thinking a weak basin wide event is not out of the cards. I cannot call one official until it surfaces though. I'm glad to see the forcing centered just east of the dateline.

[OKwx2k4]

Per Weather2020

 

The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

Good morning folks:

 

The fun is about to begin.........

 

The old pattern is almost over. The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin. Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.

Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-01-at-6.59.36-AM-640x452.png

 

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning. Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern. This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year. The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance. Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/1-640x435.png

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2-640x435.png

 

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/3-640x398.png

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States. This is exhibit A for the new LRC. This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

 

Fun times ahead folks!

Thank you for sharing this Niko!!

[OKwx2k4]

New pattern starting and look at the last 7 days over Russia in the SSTs. That's a win for pushing and keeping cold completely off that side of the globe. I'm not trying to spin anything at all by that. I just dont see any negatives yet.

 

[westMJim]

I know there has been a lot of discussions as to what kind of winter that we will have this season. I write a weekly blog on a local Michigan weather site and did some research on past El Nino's and what the total snow fall for that winter season was along with the mean temperatures for the winter months of December, January and February. Here is a brief break down of that research all information is for Grand Rapids Michigan only.

 

Since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

El Nino winters by intensity and snow fall and winter (Dec/Feb) mean temperatures

Weak

1952/53 snow fall 39.7” mean temp 29.5°°

1953/54 snow fall 78.3” mean temp 29.4°

1958/59 snow fall 104.7” mean temp 20.2°

1969/70 snow fall 84.6” mean temp  24.1°

1976/77 snow fall 70.8” mean temp 18.1°

1977/78 snow fall 84.6” mean temp 19.8°

1979/80 snow fall 48.5” mean temp 26.8°

2004/05 snow fall 81.7” mean temp 25.9°

2006/07 snow fall 83.3” mean temp 27.0°

2014/15 snow fall 78.1” mean temp 22.1°

Moderate El Nino winter

1951/52 snow fall 132.0 mean temp 26.9

1963/64 snow fall 70.4” mean temp 24.5°

1968/69 snow fall 72.3” mean temp 23.1

1986/87 snow fall 47.6” mean temp 28.3°

1994/95 snow fall 54.6° mean temp 27.6°

2002/03 snow fall 88.6” mean temp 22.1°

2009/10 snow fall 72.2” mean temp 26.7°

Strong El Nino winters

1957/58 snow fall 70.3” mean temp 24.9

1965/66 snow fall 67.0” mean temp 25.6°

1972/73 snow fall 65.5” mean temp 25.5°

1987/88 snow fall 64.2” mean temp 24.3°

1991/92 snow fall 87.8” mean temp 29.0°

 

Very strong El Nino winters

1982/83 snow fall 35.9” mean temp 31.5°

1997/98 snow fall 59.8”  mean temp 31.5°

2015/16 snow fall 61.1” mean temp 31.5°

 

So now it is time to set back as see how this winter will compare to past El Nino winters here at Grand Rapids.

[Niko]

Thank you for sharing this Niko!!

You bet Amigo!

[jaster220]

I know there has been a lot of discussions as to what kind of winter that we will have this season. I write a weekly blog on a local Michigan weather site and did some research on past El Nino's and what the total snow fall for that winter season was along with the mean temperatures for the winter months of December, January and February. Here is a brief break down of that research all information is for Grand Rapids Michigan only.

 

Since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

El Nino winters by intensity and snow fall and winter (Dec/Feb) mean temperatures

Weak

1952/53 snow fall 39.7” mean temp 29.5°°

1953/54 snow fall 78.3” mean temp 29.4°

1958/59 snow fall 104.7” mean temp 20.2°

1969/70 snow fall 84.6” mean temp  24.1°

1976/77 snow fall 70.8” mean temp 18.1°

1977/78 snow fall 84.6” mean temp 19.8°

1979/80 snow fall 48.5” mean temp 26.8°

2004/05 snow fall 81.7” mean temp 25.9°

2006/07 snow fall 83.3” mean temp 27.0°

2014/15 snow fall 78.1” mean temp 22.1°

Moderate El Nino winter

1951/52 snow fall 132.0 mean temp 26.9

1963/64 snow fall 70.4” mean temp 24.5°

1968/69 snow fall 72.3” mean temp 23.1

1986/87 snow fall 47.6” mean temp 28.3°

1994/95 snow fall 54.6° mean temp 27.6°

2002/03 snow fall 88.6” mean temp 22.1°

2009/10 snow fall 72.2” mean temp 26.7°

Strong El Nino winters

1957/58 snow fall 70.3” mean temp 24.9

1965/66 snow fall 67.0” mean temp 25.6°

1972/73 snow fall 65.5” mean temp 25.5°

1987/88 snow fall 64.2” mean temp 24.3°

1991/92 snow fall 87.8” mean temp 29.0°

 

Very strong El Nino winters

1982/83 snow fall 35.9” mean temp 31.5°

1997/98 snow fall 59.8”  mean temp 31.5°

2015/16 snow fall 61.1” mean temp 31.5°

 

So now it is time to set back as see how this winter will compare to past El Nino winters here at Grand Rapids.

 

Nice write-up westMJim

 

Weak Nino's do average out as the coldest group it appears and also 7 of 10 examples featured above normal snowfall. Good odds. With the colder regime Nino's comes a track suppressed further south and I'd bet a lot of GR's snow during those seasons came via LES. But, there's those two triple-digit seasons (interestingly both back in the 50's) that indicates occasionally GR gets a pattern very conducive to both system and LES or perhaps just a much more favorable wind flow direction. Seasons such as 77-78 could have been even bigger for GR down to BC had it not been for a very predominant NW flow trajectory during cold waves which ofc gave places like S Bend there record 172 inch season which featured a 2-Footer LES event in November and the monster 3-Footer with the January bomb.

[Niko]

Nice write-up westMJim

 

Weak Nino's do average out as the coldest group it appears and also 7 of 10 examples featured above normal snowfall. Good odds. With the colder regime Nino's comes a track suppressed further south and I'd bet a lot of GR's snow during those seasons came via LES. But, there's those two triple-digit seasons (interestingly both back in the 50's) that indicates occasionally GR gets a pattern very conducive to both system and LES or perhaps just a much more favorable wind flow direction. Seasons such as 77-78 could have been even bigger for GR down to BC had it not been for a very predominant NW flow trajectory during cold waves which ofc gave places like S Bend there record 172 inch season which featured a 2-Footer LES event in November and the monster 3-Footer with the January bomb.

I am hoping for the real big one this Winter, since everything is aligning great, weatherwise.

[Niko]

New pattern starting and look at the last 7 days over Russia in the SSTs. That's a win for pushing and keeping cold completely off that side of the globe. I'm not trying to spin anything at all by that. I just dont see any negatives yet.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1(4).png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1(9).png

Lets hope you don't. We do not want last second changes in our great Winter weather coming up.

[jaster220]

Lets hope you don't. We do not want last second changes in our great Winter weather coming up.

 

Tom already covered that with the QBO reversal underway...

[OKwx2k4]

Tom already covered that with the QBO reversal underway...

Only "cue scary music..." feature I have seen so far. Dang QBO. Still probably 8/10 positive things going for us though and if the QBO doesn't get very high, should be ok. Maybe solar can do the AO work or it may just get shoved on our side all winter without going negative.

[OKwx2k4]

That +TNH pattern I shared, Jaster, is basically a +EPO driven cold pattern with +PNA ridge. I didn't mean to ignore you. Busy day.

[OKwx2k4]

westMJim, love the stats write-ups. They help put things in perspective where all the info is easy to see and assimilate quickly. Even for me,(because I'm in Oklahoma) those statistics help me remember years and events. Thank you.

[jaster220]

Only "cue scary music..." feature I have seen so far. Dang QBO. Still probably 8/10 positive things going for us though and if the QBO doesn't get very high, should be ok. Maybe solar can do the AO work or it may just get shoved on our side all winter without going negative.

 

So true. Can't imagine ever being a time when you could go 10 for 10 with indices. Always those outliers it seems. With one of the strongest analogs in 77-78 featuring a +QBO (and 13-14 featuring a +AO all winter) it's obvious that a normally bad contributor can be over-ridden if/when Ma Nature decides to do so. And thx for your break-down of the TNH above. Cheers!

[jaster220]

 

The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean.  In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance)

 

Per NOAA update yesterday, Oct 11th

 

Full article:

 

file:///C:/Users/Ed/AppData/Local/Temp/ensodisc.pdf

[Andie]

If the rain we are experiencing on the Southern Plains is an example of a "weak El Niño" I sure as heck don't look forward to the full floor show.

[Tom]

Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[OKwx2k4]

Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Just keep 1.2 cold like it is and we're all set.

[Andie]

Are we looking at an El Niño Modokai ?