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July 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As the 1st month of met Summer comes to a close this week, we look forward to the month of July, one of my favorite months as we celebrate our country's independence.  How will the weather fair for the long holiday week??  Will there be a transition towards seasonal/cooler weather mid/late month???  Are there any more heat waves on the horizon??

 

The CFSv2 is advertising more widespread warmth across our sub forum in it's latest run.  I'll be honest, this puts a wrench into my pre-season summer thoughts.  Do I believe it or not???  That is the question I'm hoping to find some answers to over the next week.  Let's dive into the data.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180626.201807.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180626.201807.gif

 

 

 

 

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I'm going to stick with my original thoughts and hold onto the idea that the month starts off warm during the opening 10 days or so, then the ridge retrogrades west which opens the door towards cooler weather across the MW/GL's.  IF, and that's a big IF, the ridging really blossoms out west, the troughs that swing through may be strong enough to make their way down into the southern Plains and beat down the summer ridge 2nd half of the month.  With conflicting data among the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies, this is a more difficult month to forecast.  I think this is due to the fact that, it will likely be a transition month, as there is no doubt in my mind that August will be the coolest month against the norms. 

 

Who's ready for some Fireworks, bon fires, outdoor festivities and activities for the long holiday week????  Gosh, this is one of the more giddy holiday's as the pyro in me gets fired up!  I know there are a couple on here that go all out on their fireworks displays.  You know who I'm talking about!  Anyway, I like how the models are trending for the holiday around the GL's as HP looks to invade the region and provide beautiful and tranquil weather.  Let's hope it continues.

 

 

HP for dayssss.......

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_35.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_44.png

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For those who live or are planing on vacationing on the Michigan side of the lake here is some information on the Grand Rapids area for July. Remember the closer to the lake and the further north you go the cooler the averages are. For Grand Rapids the average high is 83° and the average low is 82° and there is around 60% chance of sunshine. At Traverse City the average high is 80° and the average low is 58° and up at Munising the average July high is just 74° and the average July low is 56° I would like to point out that anywhere in Michigan away from the lake that night time lows can be much cooler then near the lake shore and low is the upper 30's and low 40's do happen even in July.    

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For those who live or are planing on vacationing on the Michigan side of the lake here is some information on the Grand Rapids area for July. Remember the closer to the lake and the further north you go the cooler the averages are. For Grand Rapids the average high is 83° and the average low is 82° and there is around 60% chance of sunshine. At Traverse City the average high is 80° and the average low is 58° and up at Munising the average July high is just 74° and the average July low is 56° I would like to point out that anywhere in Michigan away from the lake that night time lows can be much cooler then near the lake shore and low is the upper 30's and low 40's do happen even in July.    

My family and I will be in Saugatuck 7/11-7/13. Hoping for some nice weather. Things look good now!

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I'm going to stick with my original thoughts and hold onto the idea that the month starts off warm during the opening 10 days or so, then the ridge retrogrades west which opens the door towards cooler weather across the MW/GL's.  IF, and that's a big IF, the ridging really blossoms out west, the troughs that swing through may be strong enough to make their way down into the southern Plains and beat down the summer ridge 2nd half of the month.  With conflicting data among the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies, this is a more difficult month to forecast.  I think this is due to the fact that, it will likely be a transition month, as there is no doubt in my mind that August will be the coolest month against the norms. 

 

Who's ready for some Fireworks, bon fires, outdoor festivities and activities for the long holiday week????  Gosh, this is one of the more giddy holiday's as the pyro in me gets fired up!  I know there are a couple on here that go all out on their fireworks displays.  You know who I'm talking about!  Anyway, I like how the models are trending for the holiday around the GL's as HP looks to invade the region and provide beautiful and tranquil weather.  Let's hope it continues.

 

 

HP for dayssss.......

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_35.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_44.png

 

Been waiting for you to fire up this thread lol.  Please lock this in!  Is there anything looming out there that could cause a substantial deviation to the current forecast?  I know theres always the possibility of a passing shower/storm during the summer, but anything regarding a major storm system or do we look to be in the clear?  Referring specifically for the 4th

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Been waiting for you to fire up this thread lol.  Please lock this in!  Is there anything looming out there that could cause a substantial deviation to the current forecast?  I know theres always the possibility of a passing shower/storm during the summer, but anything regarding a major storm system or do we look to be in the clear?  Referring specifically for the 4th

Besides the possibility of a pop up storm, I don't see anything on the horizon that could hamper your fireworks display for your neighborhood!  For instance, 12z GEFS holding steady for Canadian HP to invade the GL's for the long holiday week.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_35.png

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On this last day of June, here is the last run of the month for the July outlook...my take is, the front 10 days of the month may be so warm (AN), that the cooler trends mid/late month may not be enough to take down the average temps.  With that being said, I think we are heading towards an AN month temp wise but look for more active weather where it has been active across the majority of our sub.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201807.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201807.gif

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On this last day of June, here is the last run of the month for the July outlook...my take is, the front 10 days of the month may be so warm (AN), that the cooler trends mid/late month may not be enough to take down the average temps. With that being said, I think we are heading towards an AN month temp wise but look for more active weather where it has been active across the majority of our sub.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201807.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201807.gif

If that verifies, see y'all in August! Sucky summer of 2018 looking pretty locked in from the CFS. Hope it's worth all this once we get to Autumn and winter this go around

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I finished with 10.90 inches of rain in June. To start off July right now, there is more moderate to heavy rain moving in now. I hope that the wet pattern that has dominated June continues into July, and I hope we can get some daytime severe thunderstorms in Eastern Iowa. 

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I picked up another few tenths overnight, which puts my event total at 1.02".  It could have been better, as totals went up quickly west and north, but they also dropped off quickly south and east.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Happy July! Ended with about 4" yesterday with the first wave of storms and the second line. I've never seen my apartment's lawn this green. This was much needed after last week's heat wave as grass was looking stressed again. We can handle the low-mid 90s on tap for this next week now.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Excessive heat warning for a heat index of 100*F? Here 100*F heat indices are normal. Between that and their luck with snow I wanna live in Michigan forever now.

 

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
402 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-011615-
/O.CON.KGRR.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180702T0000Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare,
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville,
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns,
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
402 AM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* Very humid and warm again today with highs in the 90s.

* Heat indices around 100 expected this afternoon.

IMPACTS...

* Heat illnesses are possible for those spending prolonged time
outdoors or in non-air conditioned buildings.

* Those most susceptible to the heat are children and the
elderly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To reduce risk during outdoor work the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air Conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency...call 9 1 1.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Looks like a pretty routine opening week of July for this Okie. Should start the first 7 days of the month with a T departure averaging about +2°F. Today may keep it on the lower side with the cloud cover and rainfall. Were getting to where we needed a good shower before the 4th so glad to get the AC a break and for some rain.

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Happy July! Ended with about 4" yesterday with the first wave of storms and the second line. I've never seen my apartment's lawn this green. This was much needed after last week's heat wave as grass was looking stressed again. We can handle the low-mid 90s on tap for this next week now.

Wow you really scored well from yesterday’s storms. Ended up with just under an inch of rain for the event total in my backyard.

 

It looked like we were going to be in for quite a deluge when the storms started getting going around here yesterday evening... however after the initial severe warned storm that moved through, storms had issues maintaining their strength as they moved in... guessing the first storm’s outflow contaminated the atmosphere.

 

Even the strong line of storms that came in during the early morning hours started to fall apart about 40 miles west of here. Happy with the rainfall we received though, will go a long way to help us with our typically hot and dry July weather upcoming.

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Took a drive this afternoon to look at hail damage north and west of Holdrege. Some soybean fields are completely gone and corn fields with stocks cut off at 2 feet. Sad. Damage was only a couple of miles wide. Even saw an example of one field destroyed but across the road was minimal damage. The big problem is that it’s probably to late to replant.

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With that whole line coming in there is one break in the line and that is the area that is heading in my area. Current temperature here is 91 and cloudy with storms to the north and south of me,

Actually cheering on this line of T-storms cuz it's getting dry here in Marshall and the heat has taken it's toll on my flower garden. Constantly running around with a water can isn't my idea of fun gardening hobby. Good luck up there. You stand a much better chance than I do. Guess I'll go water b4 dark..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure how much rain I got yet BUT did have a roll cloud and gust front come thru and with that it became very windy and quick wind and rain squall past thru. The sky is already clearing here and the temperature fell from 91 down to 74.

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Not sure how much rain I got yet BUT did have a roll cloud and gust front come thru and with that it became very windy and quick wind and rain squall past thru. The sky is already clearing here and the temperature fell from 91 down to 74.

 

I love when a heatwave ends abruptly like that. One of my favorite wx phenom's. 

 

As for mby..

Rainfall FAIL!  KRMY asos didn't even record .01" tho my deck was damp and there were drops on the car and foliage when I stepped out this morning. Can't help but notice the parallels in the last 2 springs. Super Mega wet then in June it's been like hitting a wall. This June has been greener but Marshall has now missed several opportunities for meaningful moisture and it's starting to show.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Dec 2022. Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Glad to hear everyone was safe after the Saturday severe wx that hit the Plains/MW.  @ CentralNeb, thank goodness that Tornado miss ya and kept you and your family in the clear.  Thankfully, we can enjoy a couple days of decent summer time weather, although, parts of C/S NE may be under the gun for nighttime storms tonight.

 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1530538737758

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July

In Grand Rapids, the month of July the daily highs are around 83°F throughout the month, rarely exceeding 90°F or dropping below 73°F. The hottest day was 108° on July 14th 1936 2nd place was 106° on July 12th 1936 and in 3rd place is 104° (officially) on July 6th 2012 (I had a unofficial high of 108° and have pictures of it at my house) the coldest maximum was a cool 59° on July 13th 1964 In July of 2009 the warmest it got was only 84°

Daily low temperatures are around 63°F, rarely falling below 52°F or exceeding 72°F. The coldest low was 41° on July 6th 1983 and the warmest minimum was 82° on July 2nd 1902.

The July monthly mean in Grand Rapids is 72.2° the warmest was 79.7° in 1921 and the coldest was 67.1° in 2009.

On average there is around 60% of sunshine in July. Grand Rapids mean rain fall for July is about 3.15” and has ranged from 8.83” in 1992 to 0.40” in 1934. The last time GR recorded less than one inch was in July of 1976 when only 0.81” was recorded.

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July

In Grand Rapids, the month of July the daily highs are around 83°F throughout the month, rarely exceeding 90°F or dropping below 73°F. The hottest day was 108° on July 14th 1936 2nd place was 106° on July 12th 1936 and in 3rd place is 104° (officially) on July 6th 2012 (I had a unofficial high of 108° and have pictures of it at my house) the coldest maximum was a cool 59° on July 13th 1964 In July of 2009 the warmest it got was only 84°

Daily low temperatures are around 63°F, rarely falling below 52°F or exceeding 72°F. The coldest low was 41° on July 6th 1983 and the warmest minimum was 82° on July 2nd 1902.

The July monthly mean in Grand Rapids is 72.2° the warmest was 79.7° in 1921 and the coldest was 67.1° in 2009.

On average there is around 60% of sunshine in July. Grand Rapids mean rain fall for July is about 3.15” and has ranged from 8.83” in 1992 to 0.40” in 1934. The last time GR recorded less than one inch was in July of 1976 when only 0.81” was recorded.

And here is

Junes Summery for Grand Rapids. The average Temperature was 69.9° (+1.5°) the average high was 79.1° (+0.1) the average low was 60.7° (+3.0°) the high for the month was 94° the low for the month was just 48° there were 4 days of 90° or better the average is 2. There was 2.50” of rain. there were only 4 thunderstorms at Grand Rapids for the month. There was only 52% of possible sunshine with only 3 clear days 19 partly cloudy days and 8 cloudy days. And the official snow for the 2017/18 season ended up at 77.7” and that was +2.8”

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And here is

Junes Summery for Grand Rapids. The average Temperature was 69.9° (+1.5°) the average high was 79.1° (+0.1) the average low was 60.7° (+3.0°) the high for the month was 94° the low for the month was just 48° there were 4 days of 90° or better the average is 2. There was 2.50” of rain. there were only 4 thunderstorms at Grand Rapids for the month. There was only 52% of possible sunshine with only 3 clear days 19 partly cloudy days and 8 cloudy days. And the official snow for the 2017/18 season ended up at 77.7” and that was +2.8”

Well done. You can notice the humidity having effect in your average lows being so high relative to average vs the high temps being very close to avg.

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A bit of everything this holiday week...chance of a pop up summer time storm on the 4th/5th, warm and humid over the holiday and then....#perfect Fri-Sun!  You can't ask for better weather around the GL's/MW later this week as Canadian HP settles in and allows for cool nights and delightful days.  Just fantastic bon fire weather.

 

On a side note, are you guys out experiencing crazy mosquito's this year???  My goodness are they bad this year.  You can't sit outside around dinner time without being attacked.

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A bit of everything this holiday week...chance of a pop up summer time storm on the 4th/5th, warm and humid over the holiday and then....#perfect Fri-Sun! You can't ask for better weather around the GL's/MW later this week as Canadian HP settles in and allows for cool nights and delightful days. Just fantastic bon fire weather.

 

On a side note, are you guys out experiencing crazy mosquito's this year??? My goodness are they bad this year. You can't sit outside around dinner time without being attacked.

The problem here isn't mosquitoes, it's beetles. They congregate by the 100s wherever there's light, and in my case that happens to be the entryway to my apartment building. I can't wait for them to die.

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The problem here isn't mosquitoes, it's beetles. They congregate by the 100s wherever there's light, and in my case that happens to be the entryway to my apartment building. I can't wait for them to die.

D**n, beetles???  That must look like an invasion to see 100's of those suckers wandering around your doorstep.  Anyway, ya, this season the insects have been terrible.

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Yet another excessive heat watch issued for the metro for tomorrow. Quite fitting for July 4th. Heat index expected to be in the low 100s. Might get some severe storms tomorrow afternoon. The lack of severe weather up this way has been disappointing so far this summer. I think my County has been under one severe t-storm warning this spring/summer.

 

Tom it’s interesting you brought up the mosquito issue. The other day I was thinking how FEW mosquitoes there have been this year. I think I’ve been bitten a few times, but not many. I do have a lot of bats around my house though. They seem to keep the mosquito population in check.

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