July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Since last week, I've been pondering on the idea of where the pattern may be heading for Weeks 3 & 4 of this month.  I knew it will trend more seasonal to cool but could not put a finger on when this pattern would settle in.  My current thoughts are that it will start earlier.  I'm starting to see more evidence that by the start of Week 3 (15th) we will start to see this summer pattern shift away from the heat that has plagued us since May.  Interestingly, I'm seeing signals of a Greenland block developing that has not shown up all summer long but this is a wild card and very difficult to predict so we'll have to wait and see if this is not just a "head fake".  Most of the modeling is agreeing that the North American 500mb pattern will amplify by mid month and sets the stage to see some cooling across our sub.  Personally, this will be welcomed, drier and less humid air at this time of year is superb.

[Tom]

Yet another excessive heat watch issued for the metro for tomorrow. Quite fitting for July 4th. Heat index expected to be in the low 100s. Might get some severe storms tomorrow afternoon. The lack of severe weather up this way has been disappointing so far this summer. I think my County has been under one severe t-storm warning this spring/summer.

 

Tom it’s interesting you brought up the mosquito issue. The other day I was thinking how FEW mosquitoes there have been this year. I think I’ve been bitten a few times, but not many. I do have a lot of bats around my house though. They seem to keep the mosquito population in check.

Lucky you!  Ya, those bats are a great asset to have that keep the population of insects down.  I'm surprised you don't have a lot of them, esp living near a lake.  Have a great 4th of July buddy!

[Minny_Weather]

This is shaping up like a 2012 Summer only without the drought part. Temperatures are similar. I want an extended cooldown sometime soon or I'm gonna go mad. 78.1*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have been outside pulling weeds, boy they are thriving this year. It is 88 with index of 93 and dew of 73. Our rainy summer has added to dew points and corn is getting close to tasseling so the crops are adding to the moisture in the air. Saving grace is a south wind. Great way to lose some weight as it looks like I just showered. Also, our problem pest has been crickets. Some get in the house and you can’t find them. Annoying.

[St Paul Storm]

Lucky you!  Ya, those bats are a great asset to have that keep the population of insects down.  I'm surprised you don't have a lot of them, esp living near a lake.  Have a great 4th of July buddy!

Thanks buddy, you have a nice 4th as well!

[St Paul Storm]

Reports of 10”+ of rain in parts of W MN over the last 12 hours. Emergency evacuations taking place.

[Tom]

Have been outside pulling weeds, boy they are thriving this year. It is 88 with index of 93 and dew of 73. Our rainy summer has added to dew points and corn is getting close to tasseling so the crops are adding to the moisture in the air. Saving grace is a south wind. Great way to lose some weight as it looks like I just showered. Also, our problem pest has been crickets. Some get in the house and you can’t find them. Annoying.

It's been a drier week over here so my grass wasn't that tall but I decided to cut it anyway before the holiday.  DP's have crept back up into the upper 60's which is making it pretty humid again.  Not as bad as last week though.  Tomorrow there will be a lake breeze that kicks up and will push inland and spark some storms that could dump torrential rain in pockets around the area.  Should only last during the day and fall apart by the nighttime Fireworks display.

 

Meanwhile, Bingo say the 12z GEFS....Greenland Block trending upwards around the 15th....

 

 

[Bryan1117]

The problem here isn't mosquitoes, it's beetles. They congregate by the 100s wherever there's light, and in my case that happens to be the entryway to my apartment building. I can't wait for them to die.

I am guessing you are talking about the hordes of Japanese Beetles that continue to invade our area!?! I have had to constantly spray all of my trees and shrubs with pesticides to keep those things from eating my trees and shrubs alive.

 

Those things about killed my beautiful front yard shade tree last year... it still hasn’t fully recovered from those stupid invasive pests.

[Minny_Weather]

2 more weeks till average temps peak here. For now, we're in my least favorite part of the year. 95.4*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Just went out and shot off some fireworks. And boy the weather reminded me of how the weather always was when I shot of fireworks with my dad as a kid in Houston. Warm and muggy. With how humid it is you could easily fool someone by telling them that the smoke is actually fog. 83.5*F. 

[St Paul Storm]

Total forecast bust in progress here. Storms moving in from the NW this morning were supposed to crap out before reaching here. Instead they’re gaining strength and a special weather statement has been issued for gusts over 40mph. Gonna throw a monkey wrench into how the storms this afternoon play out as well.

[Tom]

Happy 4th of July everyone!  I love this country and I'm proud to be an American...God Bless this country!

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Just picked up 2.25” of rain in about an hour. Unbelievable. Flooding in the neighborhood. My entire garage is flooded out. Time to crack a beer and grill some brats.

 

Happy 4th everyone!

[CentralNebWeather]

Very muggy here. Looks like a cold front rolls through tonight bringing storms.

[jaster220]

Just picked up 2.25” of rain in about an hour. Unbelievable. Flooding in the neighborhood. My entire garage is flooded out. Time to crack a beer and grill some brats.

 

Happy 4th everyone!

 

Wow, not too fun sounds like. Meanwhile, here in Marshall, I've scored a very scant <.25 of rainfall in the last wks. granted it was so wet during met spring that only higher elevation front lawn is showing it. back fully green yet. to keep my garden from wilting due warmth this week i just running sprinkler vs. hand-carrying a watering can.>

 

Hoping everyone is enjoying a happy and FUN 4th! 

[St Paul Storm]

Here comes severe round #2. MPX telling all boaters on lakes in the metro to get off the water immediately. Major winds and hail up to 1/2” expected. Right now there are about 10 boats on our lake and I’m pretty sure none of them know what’s about to hit.

[jaster220]

Have been outside pulling weeds, boy they are thriving this year. It is 88 with index of 93 and dew of 73. Our rainy summer has added to dew points and corn is getting close to tasseling so the crops are adding to the moisture in the air. Saving grace is a south wind. Great way to lose some weight as it looks like I just showered. Also, our problem pest has been crickets. Some get in the house and you can’t find them. Annoying.

 

Geez, I'd never seen so many huge Crickets as when I worked in TX (Ft Worth) back in 2010. They were everywhere down there. Was sharing a 2nd floor apt with another Michigander and those things would come crawling thru the a/c duct-work that was up near the ceiling! I even found a couple dead ones when I unpacked my suitcase back in MI. At least they didn't fly around that I saw anyways. Unlike the Stink Bugs that we've been suffering with across SWMI since last summer. They seem to have finally waned tho now that mid-summer is near. 

 

I am guessing you are talking about the hordes of Japanese Beetles that continue to invade our area!?! I have had to constantly spray all of my trees and shrubs with pesticides to keep those things from eating my trees and shrubs alive.

 

Those things about killed my beautiful front yard shade tree last year... it still hasn’t fully recovered from those stupid invasive pests.

 

Oh gosh, we've had bug problems about every year since I took this house in 2008. We got the hordes of Jap Beetles about 2 or 3 yrs back. They seemed to swarm around our back door and deck at dusk and we'd come home and have to fight our way thru a cloud of 'em. My wife and daughter are bug-a-phobics so you can imagine how great a drama that was!  

[St Paul Storm]

Approaching 2.75” today so far. The second line kinda skipped over my head. Temps were supposed to be in the mid 90s with heat indices around 103. Right now it’s only 80. Heat advisory and warning have been cancelled. What a weird day of weather around here.

[james1976]

Happy 4th Everyone! Enjoy your freedom!

Low 90s and very muggy here. Storms are rolling in from the NW. Gonna have a few friends over after while. Storms could put a hamper on our BBQ plans.

[Minny_Weather]

It's hot and humid out. And my cat keeps chewing on my fireworks. If we get rain, it should hold off until after fireworks time. 93.7*F, dew point 71*F.

[james1976]

Sitting on my deck and i just heard locust for the first time this summer. Isnt that early??!

Cloudy and breezy with thunder in the distance!

[Iowawx]

Happy 4th of July to everyone. It's been a very hot and humid day in Eastern Iowa. There is a nice line of storms that is moving ESE and models show it moving though CR area in the next few hours. I sure hope it does get here and produces rain because we look to get into a drier pattern by Friday.

[Bryan1117]

Our neighborhood firework show was halted about 9:30 this evening thanks to a very strong thunderstorm outflow that kicked up 50-55 MPH winds and dropped temps around 15-20 degrees almost instantly.

 

Some people still decided to light off their grand finales as the winds were gusting through, which made for some wicked scenes with artillery shells firing through the strong winds.

 

Not much rain in my backyard, just enough to wash up whatever firework junk that wasn’t blown away by the outflow wind gusts.

 

Winds knocked a tree onto house about two miles north of me, and has knocked out power to thousands around the Omaha metro. Memorable 4th to say the least around here!

[Minny_Weather]

I was lucky. I happened to fire off my last artillery shell seconds before the outflow hit. It was muggy the entire time I lit fireworks, it only took about a minute for me to sweat buckets. But boy things have changed. Absolutely pissing down rain and fireworks have been (mostly) replaced by lightning. Still very windy out so the rain's coming down sideways. 68.9*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

Woken up out of bed by storms that started at 1:45 am. It is now 2:30 and the strong winds have heavy rain continues. Vivid lightning and loud thunder will make it tough to go back to bed. More rain is always welcome. Will report amount later this morning.

[Tom]

It was one of the more hot/humid 4th of July's I will remember.  A typical mid summer day that had the look of the tropics.  Clouds bubble up throughout the day with intermittent sunshine poking through.  Just before dusk, a line of storms formed to the south and out in the open field you could see natures fireworks show growing larger by the minute, just before our scheduled show around 9:15.  It was a beautiful scene to see both shows going on in tandem.  We had an ideal breeze out of the West that pushed the debris from our show away from us.

 

One more day of this oppressive humidity and hopefully today I can score some rain out of it.  Looks like Noon - 6:00pm is the prime time for storm development.

 

Can't wait to sleep with the window open.  Friday night looks amazing....what a difference in airmass as this will have that Northwoods "feel"...

 

[Tom]

By this time next week, the Monsoon in the SW will be in high gear.  Gosh, I hope these maps verify bc they need the rain badly out there.  I love watching the storms in the distance this time of year out in the desert.  If you ever have the chance, go out there mid/late July during the Monsoon and you'll know what I mean.  Besides the dust storms created from the strong outflows in the open desert from the torrential rains, there is beauty from the monster towering anvils, in the distance, up in the mountains, as well as, the night time lightning shows nature provides this time of year.  Gorgeous shows!

 

 

[Tom]

The JMA Weeklies came out today with some subtle changes by Week 3, but overall do follow the idea of the ridge retrograding west by Week 2.  Notice the ridge across the west coast and weakness in the central CONUS.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201807.D0412_gl0.png

 

Temps average out near seasonal levels for the majority of the MW/GL's, except for the Plains...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201807.D0412_gl2.png

 

 

It does look like it turns wetter which has that NW Flow "look" across the MW/GL's...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201807.D0412_gl1.png

[Niko]

Another scorcher today w 90s once again. Friday nights low temp here IMBY has a chance to hit the upper 40s as this will be a strong surge of cool, Canadian airmass. Wow. This will be a great relief w highs only in the low to mid 70s both Friday and Saturday along w chilly 40s and 50s at night. Sweet!

[jaster220]

I was lucky. I happened to fire off my last artillery shell seconds before the outflow hit. It was muggy the entire time I lit fireworks, it only took about a minute for me to sweat buckets. But boy things have changed. Absolutely pissing down rain and fireworks have been (mostly) replaced by lightning. Still very windy out so the rain's coming down sideways. 68.9*F.

 

My experience as well over here! As Tom said, one of the worst feeling 4th of July in memory. While 2012 featured higher actual temps, this humidity is unusually bad this year. Quite likely due to all the rainfall just to my west from Kzoo all the way back to central Nebraska! In 2012 we had the drought ongoing at the 4th. 

[jaster220]

Another scorcher today w 90s once again. Friday nights low temp here IMBY has a chance to hit the upper 40s as this will be a strong surge of cool, Canadian airmass. Wow. This will be a great relief w highs only in the low to mid 70s both Friday and Saturday along w chilly 40s and 50s at night. Sweet!

 

Hope you had a good 4th Niko! I see some nice T-storms fired up this morning. Did you get any, or did they all stay south of yby? Keep getting missed here in Marshall like the last 2 Junes, so things are getting real dry all of a sudden with the peak sun angles and heatwave pattern. 

[OKwx2k4]

I had a wonderful 4th and I hope everyone else did also. I'm in the camp with everyone else. It was likely the most humid heat for a 4th I can remember. Even this morning there is haze in the air from the moisture. Consensus has it now that, as Tom said, there will at least be periods of ridging out West in this month which is a plus for those of us who hate roasting for 4 months on end. An early respite or 2 from the heat wouldn't hurt my feelings but (maybe the models are seeing this) it is also going to be hard to get really sustainable ridging out west for longer periods of time until maybe month's end or even maybe August. If AO starts attempting to trend negative in wk3 or wk4 (I think this month may begin to show some -AO), Tom's call for an early fall in late August may be spot-on also. Lots of things to watch this month for sure.

[Tom]

I had a wonderful 4th and I hope everyone else did also. I'm in the camp with everyone else. It was likely the most humid heat for a 4th I can remember. Even this morning there is haze in the air from the moisture. Consensus has it now that, as Tom said, there will at least be periods of ridging out West in this month which is a plus for those of us who hate roasting for 4 months on end. An early respite or 2 from the heat wouldn't hurt my feelings but (maybe the models are seeing this) it is also going to be hard to get really sustainable ridging out west for longer periods of time until maybe month's end or even maybe August. If AO starts attempting to trend negative in wk3 or wk4 (I think this month may begin to show some -AO), Tom's call for an early fall in late August may be spot-on also. Lots of things to watch this month for sure.

TBH, I'm not as confident of a -AO developing during the rest of this summer, but more inclined to believe a -EPO will evolve which will have more of an impact on the cooling potential late month and into Aug.  My current thinking is for the summer time Polar Vortex to establish itself this week and hold on throughout the rest of summer across the Pole and even into the early part of met Autumn (Sept), however, we will see lobes of the PV begin invading Canada more frequently by then.  Sept is going to be interesting to see how everything falls into place and how the PV behaves.  It's always fascinating watching it evolve in its early stages, esp as we get into Oct.

[Tom]

FWIW, when you take a look at the Euro weeklies for the 1st week of Aug, it def is keeping a +AO which continues to keep the Arctic colder than normal this summer and allows the early build up of cold air across the north.  Meanwhile, somewhat of a ridge near Greenland and the -EPO "look" keep the trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS.

[Hawkeye]

The Japanese beetles have really come back strong here as well.  7+ years ago they were bad, but the 2012 drought killed them off.  Last year there was a resurgence and now this year they are pretty bad.  I have to shake my three crab apple trees now and then to get the beetles off of them temporarily.  A couple bushes are also big beetle magnets and also my row of cannas.  The beetles are a terrible pest.

 

The weather looks pretty boring for the next week.  The lawns should begin to dry out again.  I am looking forward to the low dews this weekend.

[jaster220]

Grid for KRMY still showing 50% risk of T-storms, but that's stands in major contrast to the forecasted shut-out via Intelli's hourly (and I tend to side with their hourly over GRR's 6 hr updates). Not only that, but they have ZERO measurable rainfall for the next 8 days here. Flooding and mini-droughts are the new norm it seems for mby - uggh! 

 

 

PS-I've thrown the towel on rain from today's opportunity..I think that batch that fired this morn 2 counties east was the goods being delivered for the lucky few.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Had 2 rounds of storms overnight into this morning. Gauges varied by an inch just in my town. Mine said 1.70 but 2 miles west on that side of town was over 2.5 and west of there was over 3 inches. 30 miles north had 5-7 inches. What an interesting summer moisture wise.

[Minny_Weather]

I ended up with about 1.5" last night. I expected nothing so hell yeah I'll take it. Nice break from the heat now. 77.7°F.

[Stacsh]

Grid for KRMY still showing 50% risk of T-storms, but that's stands in major contrast to the forecasted shut-out via Intelli's hourly (and I tend to side with their hourly over GRR's 6 hr updates). Not only that, but they have ZERO measurable rainfall for the next 8 days here. Flooding and mini-droughts are the new norm it seems for mby - uggh! 

 

20180705 8 days of ZERO rain.PNG

 

PS-I've thrown the towel on rain from today's opportunity..I think that batch that fired this morn 2 counties east was the goods being delivered for the lucky few.

 

Extremely dry here along the lakeshore from Holland to the north.  Looks like the next 10 days are primarily dry.  Really need rain.  

[Bryan1117]

I ended up with about 1.5" last night. I expected nothing so hell yeah I'll take it. Nice break from the heat now. 77.7°F.

Picked up another .65 of rain last night from the storms... I will keep on taking it especially with a dry pattern setting up for the next week around here.

 

It was nice to wake up this morning to the cooler and much less humid air. Very pleasant weather for July to go out and sweep up the street and clean up the yard after all the neighborhood fireworks last night and the gusty outflow winds.