Jump to content

Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons


Recommended Posts

Cuba may get snow at this rate!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The latest of global climate models, the JAMSTEC, has finally come around to the other modeling and is advertising a widespread cold CONUS for the DJF period.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

 

 

Dry in the PAC NW, wet in the SW and SE and a drier signal for most of us which I don't agree with. 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

 

 

 

SST anomalies....

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS showing a storm from Tuesday the 27-29th. Rain then snow for Nebraska as rain continues in many places. Might be one to watch over the next week for changes

I wouldn't put much thought into GFS that far out. I call it "wet dream range" for a reason.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS showing a storm from Tuesday the 27-29th.  Rain then snow for Nebraska as rain continues in many places.  Might be one to watch over the next week for changes

 

Will that low cut-off like it did in early Oct?  Could be the start of cycle 2, Some believe this last cut-off low was the start of cycle 2.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom.....love your winter outlook! I too believe a '13-'14 type winter is on the way. That season I received most of my snow from potent clippers and frontal snows. Waterloo almost had a record snowfall that year. I believe there will be a lot of that again this season with the artic outbreaks and Polar Vortex. I could see the beginning of each cycle having moisture laden systems. That pattern we had in early October was intense with that SW flow. I can see some heavy wet snow events moving forward with that early cycle set up.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Folks, this is going to be one of those seasons, whereby, in early January, we'll see a large chunk of the USA underneath a snow cover. I believe a tale of the '77/'78, '09/'10 & '13/14' seasons will transpire"

 

I would be ecstatic as most on this sub forum if anything remotely close to 77-78 or 78-79 transpired. Those two winters were the snowiest that I have ever experienced and to be able to experience just one of those winters again would be magical. It seemed like every third day we were either under an advisory or warning which that in itself is hard to comprehend. Snow was piling up so much on the main streets of Chicago that they had to bring in dump trucks and remove the snow to forest preserves and also dump it into the Chicago River. Side streets and alleys were pretty much impassable and cars were parked 3 deep. If you had a car in the city you were guaranteed to have it dented or smashed up. Apartment buildings with flat roofs had to have the snow removed in fear of it caving in due to the weight of the heavy snow.

 

 

I can go on and on about those 2 crazy winters but you guys get the picture and for those of you that lived through it...what a great memory.

 

I like your enthusiasm Tom and hope that this winter brings it and brings it hard!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought they were going with a Nino torch along with Pastelok from Accuwx??

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought they were going with a Nino torch along with Pastelok from Accuwx??

Thats what I thought too. They have finally come to their senses. :rolleyes:

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Amwx. Covers as far west as Chicago so I thought it was worth posting here.

 

"Don Sutherland's winter outlook is in the main forum, for those who are interested. Here is an excerpt of his seasonal snowfall estimates:

 

Albany: 70”-80”

Atlanta: 3”-6”

Baltimore: 30”-40”

Binghamton: 85”-95”

Boston: 55”-65”

Buffalo: 100”-110”

Burlington: 80”-90”

Chicago: 45”-55”

Detroit: 50”-60”

Nashville: 5”-15”

New York City: 45”-55”

Newark: 45”-55”

Philadelphia: 40”-50”

Providence: 50”-60”

Richmond: 30”-40”

Scranton: 50”-60”

Sterling: 28”-38”

Washington, DC: 25”-35”

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Tom. I cannot add to, nor take from your forecast. Perfect. Going to be the greatest winter of my life. I'm stoked. I've just been using this lag time to take care of some much needed things.

 

Holy -AO incoming! This is pretty incredible. In December vs in October or early November is a huge plus. It virtually guarantees the winter is legit. There are just too many great posts above to mention. I have never ever seen so many people all excited about a winter like this. Keep em coming. I'm pumped up for all of us. It's going to be a joy documenting this one with you all. :)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okwx do you wanna shovel for me?

He hasn't seen snow in like four years. Let him enjoy the ride

  • Like 4

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha, I know the feeling. I grew up in the south and went 4 years (2011-2015) without seeing an inch of snow. Thought I was going crazy. Nebraska can be frustrating for midwestern standards, but at least you're always guaranteed something. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The IRI-Multi ensemble model has been showing a warm DJF for the last couple months, but has since flipped colder across the central CONUS.  Another model suggesting a cold winter season ahead.  

 

 

 

DJF19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

FWIW, it's way to dry in the S Plains...

 

DJF19_NAm_pcp.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big change for Late Winter. Looks like Texasw will get into the the action.

The winter of 2009, however, our cold hit sooner as did the snow.

We had a lot of mist and fog that winter as well.

It will be interesting to see how soon it hits this far south.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CPC's outlook for November seemed to do alright but wasn't cold enough...will it's December forecast hold true???

 

That's brrr on a monthly from CPC

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This guy's a crack-up

 

 

Mild signals keep falling apart as we progress into late November with no long term signs of any moderation setting in.  An early winter was not in the cards for a lot of the forecasts I've read.    The fasten seat belt lights and the oxygen masks just dropped on LC flight 2018-19

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per a former ONT met, Roger Smith

 

 

Hudson Bay rapidly freezing over this week, James Bay already half frozen (western half). This is allowing frigid arctic air to arrive in northern Ontario with less than usual early season modification.

Looks like a very potent lake effect setup for tomorrow into Thursday. WNW type localized squalls with 12-24" potential. 

This reminds me of Nov 1976 when all lakes in central Ontario froze over a month to six weeks ahead of schedule and Dec-Jan were brutally cold
  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A sneak peek at the KLOT winter forecast via RC one of the Met's in their office. Also, a neat graphic he included:

 

El Nino temp anomaly.jpeg

 

 

I'm planning to post the LOT winter outlook to the web and social media on Wednesday. We're going with near normal temps, to possibly below normal, near to below normal precip and near normal snowfall.

 

Based off 81-10 climate normal period, the middle 50th or 33rd percentile of avg temps for winter in Chicago is in mid to upper 20s and snowfall is in upper 20s to around 40" (~27-28" to ~40-42"). These can kind of be seen as the typical ranges instead of focusing exclusively on 26.4 for normal DJF avg temp and 36.3" for normal seasonal snowfall.

 

In the 12 weak Niños since 1950 as defined by CPC, 11 had near to above normal snow in Chicago. 2002-03 was the lone exception. 9 of the 12 were near to below normal temps and 8 of 12 were near to below normal precip. Our main thinking is that a solidly warm winter (near/above 30° DJF avg) is less likely. Snowfall is certainly tricky and cant rule out a 02-03 like scenario here despite our head start. The near normal in our outlook would probably fall into the 30s to around 40/low 40s part of the range.
  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A sneak peek at the KLOT winter forecast via RC one of the Met's in their office. Also, a neat graphic he included:

 

attachicon.gifEl Nino temp anomaly.jpeg

Man, that map of 77-78 looks brutal!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, good news is that almost every Winter outlook has gone colder and snowier. ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man the CFS snow depth map from Dec. 11th on looks crazy for most of the Midwest

Great opportunities coming.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ik I can't wait. Even if this upcoming storm moves east and north plenty to come. :)

Absolutely

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey!!! I just wanted to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving!! You all are people that I greatly enjoy and I am blessed to be able to share weather, thoughts and many other things with you all. I'm very thankful for all of you.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone in here! I enjoy coming in here daily to talk weather and anything else that we may chat about. I hope everyone is having a great day with family and friends!
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey!!! I just wanted to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving!! You all are people that I greatly enjoy and I am blessed to be able to share weather, thoughts and many other things with you all. I'm very thankful for all of you.

Happy Thanksgiving from your friends up here in Nebraska. I always enjoy your informative posts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey!!! I just wanted to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving!! You all are people that I greatly enjoy and I am blessed to be able to share weather, thoughts and many other things with you all. I'm very thankful for all of you.

 

Same back atcha buddy! Hope you had as nice a holiday as I did. It's hard to believe it's Thanksgiving and not Christmas. Was commenting to my daughter as we drove north this afternoon with the temp at 25F grey overcast and some snow covered farm fields that I'd seen plenty of Christmas days with less snow OTG. She concurred! The model trends certainly have been my friend the past 24 hrs and I feel more like a Yooper @ Thanksgiving - gottsta get me lights up cuz da snowstorm it's a comin'

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wonder if any more Winter outlooks will update.

 

IWX issued their's a day or two ago

 

Here's the link:

 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...