Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[Niko]

IWX issued their's a day or two ago

 

Here's the link:

 

Thanks amigo!

[Niko]

So far, this Autumn, at least where I live in SEMI has had a cold Autumn. No doubt about it. Also snowy as well. Total so far at 6.7".

[westMJim]

I also posted this in the November OBS

 

As we head towards the end of the month lets see just where November 2018 stands so far in the history books.

At Grand Rapids we will set a new record for the coldest monthly maximum for any November the warmest it has gotten is just 52° the old record was 53° set in 1907. The mean temperature so far is at 35.3° at this time it looks like GR will be in the top 10 coldest Novembers on record. The coldest it has gotten so far is 20° the record is -10.  Grand Rapids has reported 14.0” (the record is 31.0”) of snow so far (here at my house I have recorded 10.9”) Over at Muskegon the mean so far this month is 36.2° they are in the running for a top 15 the warmest maximum is just 51 and that will be a new record the old record was 53 set in 1905. Muskegon has reported 12” of snow fall (the record is 25.7”) Down at Kalamazoo the mean so far is 35.5° that is good for 10^th place. The warmest it has gotten in Kzoo is 54° that will be good for 2^nd place the old record was 53° set in 1907. The total snow fall in Kzoo is not available.

So this November will be one of the coldest on record in West Michigan and while not the snowiest it will be none the less much snowy then average.

[BrianJK]

El Niño watch?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Am I reading this correctly? Seems contrary to what’s been discussed up until this point.

 

Suppose we shouldn't have been so quick to dismiss this...

[Madtown]

^bingo

[Niko]

It came to fruition. Congrats to NOAA.

[Andie]

Oh man, here comes the snow. Compliments of Senior El Niño.

 

Today was cod but pretty. All of the tree limbs were coated with ice and it was misty today.

Looked like a lace landscape.

 

It's 33*, rain. Heading down to 32*.

Mañana will be 39* and more rain.

 

Bueno!

[Stacsh]

Winter ain’t over, but reading posts in this thread is hilarious. I love how some will throw out models because it doesn’t fit their hopes.

[Andie]

Just out of curiosity, answer a question for a non weather nerd, please.

 

I understand how El Niño's affect moisture and temps in Texas through spring.

However, how does it typically affect temps and moisture in summer?

 

I know it will suppress hurricanes, but I was interested rain and temps. Thnx.

[jaster220]

Winter ain’t over, but reading posts in this thread is hilarious. I love how some will throw out models because it doesn’t fit their hopes.

 

Most fully expected a Nino but of a classic Modoki style. Instead, Ma Nature punt-faked with a surge of warmth into region 1.2 that made this act like a traditional Nino. Not many saw that coming tbh. But, just like the almost unheard of 2nd year QBO non-reversal, she'll always get the last laugh it would seem. Someone mentioned that with all the extreme tele-connections there's some high strangeness potential this winter. I'm just gonna sit back and watch the next curve-ball tossed our way

[Niko]

Winter ain’t over, but reading posts in this thread is hilarious. I love how some will throw out models because it doesn’t fit their hopes.

[Stacsh]

Most fully expected a Nino but of a classic Modoki style. Instead, Ma Nature punt-faked with a surge of warmth into region 1.2 that made this act like a traditional Nino. Not many saw that coming tbh. But, just like the almost unheard of 2nd year QBO non-reversal, she'll always get the last laugh it would seem. Someone mentioned that with all the extreme tele-connections there's some high strangeness potential this winter. I'm just gonna sit back and watch the next curve-ball tossed our way

 

 

 

Not my intent to make fun of anyone here.  It's just crazy that weather will do what it wants to do.  So many different factors that go into long term forecasting it's almost not worth it lol.  

[BrianJK]

Not my intent to make fun of anyone here.  It's just crazy that weather will do what it wants to do.  So many different factors that go into long term forecasting it's almost not worth it lol.  

 

Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly  inaccurate.  There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc   upcoming winter season.  Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast.  Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.

[jaster220]

Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly  inaccurate.  There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc   upcoming winter season.  Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast.  Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.

 

Good post. I do believe most of those hyperbolic terms mainly focused on S. Plains/Dixie over to the East Coast. Just today, OKC got hit pretty good and traditionally winter would start there later than the northern tier. I wasn't taking your post as directed towards myself so I'm not offended by any means. Actually, since I made my seasonal call for this sub-forum so dang early I thought it worthwhile to look at just how "historic" I expected it to be. This table shows that my region of south central Mich would finish above avg (my call is for first to last flake to be clear, not DJF) but only by 10-20%. Nothing close to the 100% above normal of our '08-09 & '13-14 historic season totals. My map also did not specify amounts (not even a percentage like WxBell's for example), but merely amount vs average for your particular location. Currently, mby sits at 34.7% of normal on Jan 4th. It's certainly not impossible if things do flip that I come in at or even above avg. Actually, if we can just get that Iowa snow hole caught-up, my early call may yet turn out ok. Let's see how things play out..

 

For SMI based solely on analogs:

 

 

For sub-forum in general. Actually it's Zone 2 that I had as above avg, so places like IND and a lot of the OHV are currently running behind. N Iowa I had a Zone 3 thus below avg. I doubt they go all winter with bad luck tho.

 

[Stormy]

Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly inaccurate. There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc upcoming winter season. Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast. Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.

Agree 100%! This is so true and I couldn't have worded it any better! Nobody really knows what the weather will be like beyond about 2 weeks or so. But still it's fun to look at models, though I don't pay to much attention beyond 7-10 days except to see what a general trend might be. Also still like when people try & forecast the weather, be it long or short term, & see what they are seeing/thinking. Model forecasts are generated by the world's most powerful supercomputers and still have issues. Last fall I was a little worried how I was going to make it through this epic late 70's style winter and still keep my livestock comfortable. Needn't have worried as it was mostly opposite so far! Now I'm worried (not really lol) that it will change (patterns often don't continue the same all season long) and be bitterly cold right when I don't want it. So long as it happens before February 20 I'll be okay with it!

[Niko]

Agree 100%! This is so true and I couldn't have worded it any better! Nobody really knows what the weather will be like beyond about 2 weeks or so. But still it's fun to look at models, though I don't pay to much attention beyond 7-10 days except to see what a general trend might be. Also still like when people try & forecast the weather, be it long or short term, & see what they are seeing/thinking. Model forecasts are generated by the world's most powerful supercomputers and still have issues. Last fall I was a little worried how I was going to make it through this epic late 70's style winter and still keep my livestock comfortable. Needn't have worried as it was mostly opposite so far! Now I'm worried (not really lol) that it will change (patterns often don't continue the same all season long) and be bitterly cold right when I don't want it. So long as it happens before February 20 I'll be okay with it!

Very well said and I agree 100%.

[Tom]

As if there is nothing to discuss, I thought I'd comment on the UKMET and EURO seasonal which both agree that this Winter is locking and is poised to have Legs.  Here was the 500mb map for Feb/Mar/Apr...I can't post the Euro, but it is also showing a very cold Feb/Mar for the eastern CONUS.

 

[hlcater]

As if there is nothing to discuss, I thought I'd comment on the UKMET and EURO seasonal which both agree that this Winter is locking and is poised to have Legs.  Here was the 500mb map for Feb/Mar/Apr...I can't post the Euro, but it is also showing a very cold Feb/Mar for the eastern CONUS.

 

 

Not a good look for April severe... 

[OKwx2k4]

This winter is all but over for me if the models are correct.

 

Extrapolating out to the period past the "cold shot" that may or may not happen, winter looks to largely cease for anyone who isn't the great lakes or the OV. This one had all the potential. It's a shame. Going to be hard to squeeze much winter into the last 15-20 days of February if the cycle is locked. I think it is.

 

If there is severe cold, it will be nothing more than an annoyance to me. I hate that.

[gosaints]

Bad news for this forum

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-doesnt-see-his-shadow-predicts-an-early-spring

I am shivering in fear

[East Dubzz]

Also, plenty of us enjoy spring weather as well, so I don’t see the issue.

[OKwx2k4]

I haven't had a winter (with exception of almost having a winter in October and November, VERY VERY cold) so if it's going to be spring, may as well. College baseball and NASCAR start soon.

 

I'm going to stick with the established seasonal pattern, though and go with more alternating extremes with the SW jet finally waking up as we go -PNA for a bit. Still looks like hard cold into the spring months for almost everyone but me and Andie.

[gimmesnow]

Bad news for this forum

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/groundhog-day-punxsutawney-phil-doesnt-see-his-shadow-predicts-an-early-spring

 

Great, maybe this summer will be warm so you can talk about how people are dying from the heat! But I think your university's safe space will be nice and cold with puppies and candy and soothing music for you

[VMB443]

You see, unlike all of you evil people who wish extremes on folks just for your silly hobby — I am just fine with a normal winter day or a normal summer day.

 

A few inches of snow to pretty things up? No problem for me.

 

78 degrees and sunny? Can’t wait to take a lap around the lake and drink a few beers.

 

What I don’t need? Ice, record-low temps, feet of snow, humidity and tornadoes wiping out entire towns. You know - the things ya’ll hope for and cherry pick, post and root home any/every model that suggests it might happen.

I bet you’re a lot of fun at parties...

[buzzman289]

living in Mom and Dads basement must be so safe

[Madtown]

You see, unlike all of you evil people who wish extremes on folks just for your silly hobby — I am just fine with a normal winter day or a normal summer day.

 

A few inches of snow to pretty things up? No problem for me.

 

78 degrees and sunny? Can’t wait to take a lap around the lake and drink a few beers.

 

What I don’t need? Ice, record-low temps, feet of snow, humidity and tornadoes wiping out entire towns. You know - the things ya’ll hope for and cherry pick, post and root home any/every model that suggests it might happen.

You drink and boat....my gosh man how do you live with yourself! Decisions that put others lives and yours at risk!

 

lol

[Money]

You see, unlike all of you evil people who wish extremes on folks just for your silly hobby — I am just fine with a normal winter day or a normal summer day.

 

A few inches of snow to pretty things up? No problem for me.

 

78 degrees and sunny? Can’t wait to take a lap around the lake and drink a few beers.

 

What I don’t need? Ice, record-low temps, feet of snow, humidity and tornadoes wiping out entire towns. You know - the things ya’ll hope for and cherry pick, post and root home any/every model that suggests it might happen.

lollll

[Andie]

You drink and boat....my gosh man how do you live with yourself! Decisions that put others lives and yours at risk!

lol

Happens all over the south. I've sailed and had a beer or two. We're not talking about getting bombed. Just a beer.

 

We're heading for 72*

15-20 mph winds

Mostly cloudy.

 

Nice lake sailing. . Y'all come.

[Andie]

I haven't had a winter (with exception of almost having a winter in October and November, VERY VERY cold) so if it's going to be spring, may as well. College baseball and NASCAR start soon.

I'm going to stick with the established seasonal pattern, though and go with more alternating extremes with the SW jet finally waking up as we go -PNA for a bit. Still looks like hard cold into the spring months for almost everyone but me and Andie.

Yeah, I thought we'd catch the tail of this cold streak, but looks like another dull winter.

Loads of overcast days. Even our rain has abated.

 

I'm ready for a good old rainy day, much less snow.

[Madtown]

Happens all over the south. I've sailed and had a beer or two. We're not talking about getting bombed. Just a beer.

 

We're heading for 72*

15-20 mph winds

Mostly cloudy.

 

Nice lake sailing. . Y'all come.

 

Was joking if there ain't a cooler of 24 beers on the pontoon then it aint a ride up north

[OKwx2k4]

I hate you weather.

[Niko]

I hate you weather.

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_19.png

I hear ya! Dang!

[SnowDude83]

Lets talk spring and summer!

 

This topic was started two months before meteorological fall but here we are a week from meteorological spring and not a peep?

 

Sure looks like the first week of March is going to be cold all over but it doesn’t look to last long. Seems by Week 2 we may be looking at ABOVE AVERAGE temps which will be amazing considering how average skyrockets over the next six weeks.

 

Like any spring, we’ll have our ups and downs but I am definitely ready to open the windows and get some fresh air running through the house. A nice long run outside sounds amazing, as well.

 

Think spring!

[Minny_Weather]

Lets talk spring and summer!

 

This topic was started two months before meteorological fall but here we are a week from meteorological spring and not a peep?

 

Sure looks like the first week of March is going to be cold all over but it doesn’t look to last long. Seems by Week 2 we may be looking at ABOVE AVERAGE temps which will be amazing considering how average skyrockets over the next six weeks.

 

Like any spring, we’ll have our ups and downs but I am definitely ready to open the windows and get some fresh air running through the house. A nice long run outside sounds amazing, as well.

 

Think spring!

Welcome to the board! A lot of this board centers around Winter weather. You'll notice that as Winter dies down so does the board. Some members (like me) hold out during the Summer talking severe wx and miserable heat waves, though. Usually long-term discussions for anything other than Winter tends to happen in monthly threads.

[OKwx2k4]

Lets talk spring and summer!

 

This topic was started two months before meteorological fall but here we are a week from meteorological spring and not a peep?

 

Sure looks like the first week of March is going to be cold all over but it doesn’t look to last long. Seems by Week 2 we may be looking at ABOVE AVERAGE temps which will be amazing considering how average skyrockets over the next six weeks.

 

Like any spring, we’ll have our ups and downs but I am definitely ready to open the windows and get some fresh air running through the house. A nice long run outside sounds amazing, as well.

 

Think spring!

As LNK stated, Welcome. I'm beginning to notice the days lengthening and thinking about spring also. I think I'm ready for it too. I'd be in a different mood about that if it were white outside for any length of time at all this winter, but it hasn't been. Here's hoping for a safe severe wx season but my belief is that it will be a difficult one in the South-Central, deep south, and SE US. Just an early 2 cents worth. It's been calm for many seasons, in spite of press coverage, and the weather pattern that typifies a transition into the summer from this pattern is usually violent.

[jaster220]

Lets talk spring and summer!

 

This topic was started two months before meteorological fall but here we are a week from meteorological spring and not a peep?

 

Sure looks like the first week of March is going to be cold all over but it doesn’t look to last long. Seems by Week 2 we may be looking at ABOVE AVERAGE temps which will be amazing considering how average skyrockets over the next six weeks.

 

Like any spring, we’ll have our ups and downs but I am definitely ready to open the windows and get some fresh air running through the house. A nice long run outside sounds amazing, as well.

 

Think spring!

 

I am ready too, if only because real winter had a hard time gaining any traction here compared to better years. Due to the many cloudy days us Mitt peeps endure from mid-Oct thru Feb, I'm a huge fan of Solar Summer and we're only a month away! 

[Stormy]

I'm so ready for spring & that always was my favorite season. I'm getting frustrated with all of the ice buildup on the driveway! Anyway, I'm just going into my busiest time of the year so won't be posting much for awhile. I wasn't on here for a few days, but I'll probably be more of a warm season poster if time allows. Need more of those anyway.ha Thunderstorms is what started my interest in weather, and that continues. When I hear a lot of distant thunder and radar shows a strong storm heading my way I get all excited, like a kid! Lol

[Niko]

I'm so ready for spring & that always was my favorite season. I'm getting frustrated with all of the ice buildup on the driveway! Anyway, I'm just going into my busiest time of the year so won't be posting much for awhile. I wasn't on here for a few days, but I'll probably be more of a warm season poster if time allows. Need more of those anyway.ha Thunderstorms is what started my interest in weather, and that continues. When I hear a lot of distant thunder and radar shows a strong storm heading my way I get all excited, like a kid! Lol

I like severe weather also.

[jaster220]

I like severe weather also.

 

I used to love it when I was younger, back when SMI got a lot more of it, and my folk's place was built like a fortress strong. These days, there's little to get excited about, and when it does hit it's always a lot of mess to clean up here in Marshall. An older city with too many large, old, and over-grown trees. 

[Niko]

I used to love it when I was younger, back when SMI got a lot more of it, and my folk's place was built like a fortress strong. These days, there's little to get excited about, and when it does hit it's always a lot of mess to clean up here in Marshall. An older city with too many large, old, and over-grown trees. 

I agree. It seems like back then, t'stms used to be more severe and if we end up getting anything close to strong or even severe these days, it ends up dissipating right before it hits our BY's. Weird stuff.