Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[Minny_Weather]

I'm seeing a lot of general Fall/Winter discussion happening in the ENSO thread, so I figured we are about due for this seeing as we are only 1.5 months away from met Fall, and I know Fall-like weather can sometimes begin as early as August. And according to Euro weeklies, we could start seeing some of that. Discuss.

[Tom]

I'm seeing a lot of general Fall/Winter discussion happening in the ENSO thread, so I figured we are about due for this seeing as we are only 1.5 months away from met Fall, and I know Fall-like weather can sometimes begin as early as August. And according to Euro weeklies, we could start seeing some of that. Discuss.

Thanks Lincoln.  I was planning on using the ENSO thread to include the Autumn/Winter discussions for another week or two, but since you fired one up, let's roll with it.  If you don't mind, can I edit the title to include the winter component?

[Minny_Weather]

Thanks Lincoln. I was planning on using the ENSO thread to include the Autumn/Winter discussions for another week or two, but since you fired one up, let's roll with it. If you don't mind, can I edit the title to include the winter component?

No problem, let's do it!

[Tom]

The latest QBO reading for the month of June continues the decline down to -28.45 compared to last months reading of -24.23.  Good signs for high latitude blocking into the cold season.  I just did a quick check and since 1948, there has been no data indicating a index value this low for the month of June.  The closest years were 2012 (-25.89) and 2010 (-25.05).

[Tom]

What is the ECMWF showing for this Autumn and into the 1st half of Winter???  Certainly showcasing an El Nino look with the continuation of a very wet pattern across the SW/4 corners and into Cali throughout the Autumn.

 

 

 

 

Pocket of AN temps across the MW/Plains and near avg down in the southern Plains...NE Canada continues to remain in the deep freezer.  This, to me, suggests another season of the Polar Vortex being a dominant player this season.

 

 

 

 

By the time we head deeper into the Autumn, the model is seeing the EC ridging (might be to strong) which covers the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

There is a signal of plenty of early season cutters???  Lots of precip continues in the west/southwest and as the jet strengthens, it suggests a wetter signal across the App's/GL's.  SE ridge may be the real deal early on in the season.

 

 

The nation turns colder as winter progresses....

 

 

 

In terms of precip, nearly carbon copy for the 1st half of winter....looks fun and wild...

 

[OKwx2k4]

What is the ECMWF showing for this Autumn and into the 1st half of Winter??? Certainly showcasing an El Nino look with the continuation of a very wet pattern across the SW/4 corners and into Cali throughout the Autumn.

 

 

 

 

Pocket of AN temps across the MW/Plains and near avg down in the southern Plains...NE Canada continues to remain in the deep freezer. This, to me, suggests another season of the Polar Vortex being a dominant player this season.

 

 

 

 

By the time we head deeper into the Autumn, the model is seeing the EC ridging (might be to strong) which covers the MW/GL's region.

 

 

 

There is a signal of plenty of early season cutters??? Lots of precip continues in the west/southwest and as the jet strengthens, it suggests a wetter signal across the App's/GL's. SE ridge may be the real deal early on in the season.

 

 

The nation turns colder as winter progresses....

 

 

 

In terms of precip, nearly carbon copy for the 1st half of winter....looks fun and wild...

 

Looks like a beautiful last 1/3 of the year being drawn up by the Euro. Especially if normal on there equals cold, which it usually does.

[Tom]

Looks like a beautiful last 1/3 of the year being drawn up by the Euro. Especially if normal on there equals cold, which it usually does.

Yup, I can see it trend colder as we get closer, esp since the STJ will be quite active this season and surely to be a much different LRC pattern.  It's going to be fun watch the new pattern unfold.

[Tom]

@ LNK, when I saw the temp departure map you posted for the N.H. it struck me how the majority of the cold air was knifing down out of the Arctic into North America.  As it stands now, the CFSv2 is predicting a major trough like feature in Canada, suggesting to me that the Polar Vortex will be an even stronger feature than we saw last year.  In fact, it may even rival '13-'14 from this distance.  Over the last several cold seasons, Siberia and East Asia saw the brunt of the cold that hit hard, and early which lasted the entire winter in that part of the world.  Is nature going to balance that out this year???  I think so and I'm tempted to say that this will be an extreme winter season across Canada/U.S.  I believe the signals will be showing up in Sept across Canada as we see lobes of the Polar Vortex spinning near Hudson Bay sending numerous cold fronts down into the U.S.  Something peculiar is evolving and I'm beginning to put a finger on it.

 

 

[NEJeremy]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say, who knows what's going to happen?

Last winter was supposed to be epic everywhere based on the models, indices, and analogs, and we ended up with 18" of snow total and most areas were below or near normal for snowfall for the season. Spring took a while to get here and there was some extreme cold in January, but overall it was a pretty benign winter.

This summer was supposed to begin hot and dry with talks of a severe drought kicking in especially out here in the Plains, and instead a lot of areas have had record rainfall and flooding and still the heat.

All I know is I am done telling my relatives/friends what the upcoming winter is going to be like in the fall. They've stopped believing me

[Tom]

Saw this post by Gary Lezak in his blog:

 

 

 

The last time it reached 100° was on September 8, 2013.

 

Is this a synchronicity for the upcoming winter???  '13-'14 was a brutally cold one...just sayin'...

[james1976]

Saw this post by Gary Lezak in his blog:

 

 

Is this a synchronicity for the upcoming winter???  '13-'14 was a brutally cold one...just sayin'...

My fav winter!

[Tom]

My fav winter!

Mine to, but I’d like to see a combo of ‘78-‘77 and ‘13-‘14...spread the wealth around...

[OKwx2k4]

Mine to, but I’d like to see a combo of ‘78-‘77 and ‘13-‘14...spread the wealth around...

Throw in the cold of 1983-84 and you have a trifecta that we could all love.

[CentralNebWeather]

Around here 1983-1984 was absolutely the best as a young kid. As I recall we had 8 or 9 snow days. From a Thanksgiving blizzard to record cold to storm after storm until April. 13-14 was not good in Central Nebraska, just cold and dry.

[Minny_Weather]

Around here 1983-1984 was absolutely the best as a young kid. As I recall we had 8 or 9 snow days. From a Thanksgiving blizzard to record cold to storm after storm until April. 13-14 was not good in Central Nebraska, just cold and dry.

This. Besides 2016-17 obviously, 2013-14 is the worst recent year for us. And we haven't gotten above normal snowfall since 2012-13. And we haven't REALLY gotten above normal snowfall since 2010-11.

[CentralNebWeather]

17-18 was actually good here though no big events but above normal snowfall and quite a bit of cold.

[Minny_Weather]

17-18 was actually good here though no big events but above normal snowfall and quite a bit of cold.

We were below normal here but it's the best year we've had since 2010-11. I don't consider 2012-13 to be above normal because basically half our season's total came from quick melting systems in March, April, and May.

[OKwx2k4]

We were below normal here but it's the best year we've had since 2010-11. I don't consider 2012-13 to be above normal because basically half our season's total came from quick melting systems in March, April, and May.

You're in same boat as me. 12-13 could have been an amazing winter for me. Snowed everywhere but here and, as you said, enough precip, just very very marginal cold every time. Needed too many things to go right every time and it just didn't. Most failed snow chances I have ever seen. Very memorable because of the May snowfall and record lows in 2013.

[Tom]

As stated in the ENSO thread, fresh hot off the press, the JAMSTEC, is sniffing out a potentially cold winter across the CONUS.  

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1jul2018.gif

 

 

Some previous forecasts which the model "saw" comparing our upcoming winter is the 2009-10 season.  Back in July 2009, this is what the model was seeing.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2010.1jul2009.gif

 

 

Very similar SST configuration across the equatorial PAC, but across the N PAC, its colder across NW NAMER...this is prob a bigger difference when comparing the 2 seasons, as well as, the cold waters in the W ATL across the eastern seaboard.  

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2010.1jul2009.gif

[james1976]

I remember 83-84 a bit. Seems like there was some brutal cold around here and we did have a big April snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

I remember 83-84 a bit. Seems like there was some brutal cold around here and we did have a big April snow.

We had the longest stretch ever of not rising above 0. I need to research the exact length and date. The Thanksgiving Blizzard had us stranded at our Aunt’s house for 2 days. It was so fun for all of us little kids at the time to sleep on the floor. Thinking back 35 years, there are relatives that are no longer with us that spent a wonderful weekend together.

[Minny_Weather]

Month of December 1983 in Lincoln, NE:

 

Date                                Hi             Lo    Precip      Snowfall   Snow depth

 

12/01/1983      27     2  0.00   0.0     6
12/02/1983      22     9  0.00   0.0     6
12/03/1983      25     7  0.00   0.0     6
12/04/1983      31    14     T   0.0     6
12/05/1983      30    20  0.05   0.5     6
12/06/1983      24     5  0.01   0.1     7
12/07/1983      28     4     T     T     7
12/08/1983      36     3     T     T     7
12/09/1983      20    10     T     T     7
12/10/1983      31    13     T   0.0     7
12/11/1983      31    14     T   0.0     6
12/12/1983      25     7     T     T     6
12/13/1983      26    11     T     T     5
12/14/1983      21    13  0.11   2.1     5
12/15/1983      20     8  0.02   0.3     7
12/16/1983      13    -2     T     T     7
12/17/1983       6    -6  0.07   1.3     7
12/18/1983      -2   -18  0.01   0.3     9
12/19/1983      -5   -16     T     T     9
12/20/1983      -2   -14  0.17   6.0     9
12/21/1983      -2   -13  0.01   0.3    15
12/22/1983      -6   -27  0.01   0.3    15
12/23/1983      -6   -13  0.01   0.3    15
12/24/1983     -10   -18  0.00   0.0    15
12/25/1983       4   -16  0.00   0.0    14
12/26/1983      20    -7  0.00   0.0    14
12/27/1983      20    13  0.10   2.3    14
12/28/1983      13    -4  0.00   0.0    16
12/29/1983       6    -4  0.00   0.0    15
12/30/1983      22    -7  0.00   0.0    14

[Tom]

The sun has gone into a deep sleep of late.  18 days and counting of a spotless sun.  The solar min is declining and at a faster rate than the models have been predicting it to be.

 

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 18 days 
2018 total: 105 days (54%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)

[Tom]

The latest IRI mult-ensemble model has come out today and paints quite a different picture.  While this could be a possible outcome, its hard to believe since Alaska/N Canada/Greenland are so warm.  STJ looks active on this model which confirms a southern stream storm track.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As we go through the 2nd half of Autumn into Winter, the pattern changes...

 

 

 

 

 

1st half of Winter....active/wet and cold....

 

 

 

[Niko]

Many outlets are going with a Modoki El Nino for this upcoming Winter.

[OKwx2k4]

2018 vs 2015 via JB on Twitter.

 

Easy to spot, in contrast, why we spent all of 15-16 under a massive ridge. Not looking like a problem this year.

[Niko]

 

Hey Jaster...this is for you. Get ready this Winter!!!  

[Minny_Weather]

Winter outlooks in July? Jesus Christ.

[james1976]

Winter outlooks in July? Jesus Christ.

Yeah winter outlooks start popping up july-august. Seems early but fun nonetheless.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah winter outlooks start popping up july-august. Seems early but fun nonetheless.

If I had a dollar for every time a winter outlook said "significant cold snaps, above normal snow" for here...

[NEJeremy]

If I had a dollar for every time a winter outlook said "significant cold snaps, above normal snow" for here...

It's weird how winter weather sites that are run by winter weather enthusiasts always all say that... I already know what the winter weather forecasts are going to say each year

[Tom]

After performing some data crunching and comparing this year's Arctic temps and QBO index through June, I found a very similar match and that year was 2010.   

 

Check this out, here is the chart below showing the current state of Arctic temps through mid July...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

 

2010...notice the drop in arctic temps mid summer towards 0C...same timing, and if you also compare both charts from Day 75 they are behaving similarly.   Both years start with a similar QBO index value in the -10's gradually decreasing, however, in 2010, it bottomed out in the month of May (-26.28) and continued to rise into positive by Aug and continued + through Autumn/Winter.  

 

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png

 

 

Now, when I looked at the NAO/AO index values that season (2010-2011), from Oct-Jan it had a general -AO and at times a major -AO.  It flipped positive Feb-Apr.  In terms of the NAO, I would say it was generally slightly negative in Oct, neutral through 1st half of Nov, then second half of Nov it tanked and stayed negative from Dec-Jan, reversed positive in Feb-Apr.  I'd say if the QBO continues to show declines and remains negative throughout the Autumn/Winter we stand a very good chance to see significant high lat blocking this cold season.

 

With all this in mind, I find it hard to believe that we will not see blocking.  In fact, there is evidence that it could be rather significant.  I'm going to pay attention in the regions of Scandinavia and Alaska as my two hot spots this Autumn.

 

 

[GDR]

I’ve seen analog years of 1911-12 pop up. If that’s the case lookout for a cold winter.

[OKwx2k4]

After performing some data crunching and comparing this year's Arctic temps and QBO index through June, I found a very similar match and that year was 2010.

 

Check this out, here is the chart below showing the current state of Arctic temps through mid July...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

 

2010...notice the drop in arctic temps mid summer towards 0C...same timing, and if you also compare both charts from Day 75 they are behaving similarly. Both years start with a similar QBO index value in the -10's gradually decreasing, however, in 2010, it bottomed out in the month of May (-26.28) and continued to rise into positive by Aug and continued + through Autumn/Winter.

 

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png

 

 

Now, when I looked at the NAO/AO index values that season (2010-2011), from Oct-Jan it had a general -AO and at times a major -AO. It flipped positive Feb-Apr. In terms of the NAO, I would say it was generally slightly negative in Oct, neutral through 1st half of Nov, then second half of Nov it tanked and stayed negative from Dec-Jan, reversed positive in Feb-Apr. I'd say if the QBO continues to show declines and remains negative throughout the Autumn/Winter we stand a very good chance to see significant high lat blocking this cold season.

 

With all this in mind, I find it hard to believe that we will not see blocking. In fact, there is evidence that it could be rather significant. I'm going to pay attention in the regions of Scandinavia and Alaska as my two hot spots this Autumn.

Yes, yes, yes, aaaaaaanndd yes. There is a near 90% chance, in my book that the PV gets demolished this winter. I literally cannot see how it can't. I cannot imagine 2010 with the fuel of a warm neutral or weak Niño and that juice off the coast of SoCal and Baja. My take would be that if you blended this year and 2010 together, would be something like maybe 1917-1918. I remember back in 2013, a lot of these years in some old boards I was on came up around this time along with 1977-78. The fact also, that I haven't seen an analog set with many years past 1990 in it in awhile also speaks pretty good volumes to what we may be looking at this fall and winter.

[Tom]

Yes, yes, yes, aaaaaaanndd yes. There is a near 90% chance, in my book that the PV gets demolished this winter. I literally cannot see how it can't. I cannot imagine 2010 with the fuel of a warm neutral or weak Niño and that juice off the coast of SoCal and Baja. My take would be that if you blended this year and 2010 together, would be something like maybe 1917-1918. I remember back in 2013, a lot of these years in some old boards I was on came up around this time along with 1977-78. The fact also, that I haven't seen an analog set with many years past 1990 in it in awhile also speaks pretty good volumes to what we may be looking at this fall and winter.

By Sept, I think we'll see a good idea of how the vortex will behave this season.  Like you, I'm seeing more and more evidence this season to be highly unusual in terms of the placement of the Polar Vortex.  I'm not finding many reasons as to why it could not be.  Can you?  Seriously though, all the indications are for a displacement and/or significant weakening of the PV this year.

 

TBH, and I'm really confident in saying this, the southern Plains will finally see a winter this year.  Is it your back yard?  I hope so!  I'd love to see you get smashed a couple times this year and see a manifestation of a deep south, Texarkana Low track N/NE up towards the GL's!  Hahaha, one can only dream of a Powerhouse as such like back in Jan '78, just a bit farther west to hit your area.

[Tom]

Courtesty of BamWx, low solar analogs for the Autumn look mighty troughy...

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

By Sept, I think we'll see a good idea of how the vortex will behave this season. Like you, I'm seeing more and more evidence this season to be highly unusual in terms of the placement of the Polar Vortex. I'm not finding many reasons as to why it could not be. Can you? Seriously though, all the indications are for a displacement and/or significant weakening of the PV this year.

 

TBH, and I'm really confident in saying this, the southern Plains will finally see a winter this year. Is it your back yard? I hope so! I'd love to see you get smashed a couple times this year and see a manifestation of a deep south, Texarkana Low track N/NE up towards the GL's! Hahaha, one can only dream of a Powerhouse as such like back in Jan '78, just a bit farther west to hit your area.

Honestly, I see no way we don't have a real winter here. I'd love to see a 1978, only with more snow. Over 30 consecutive days with snowcover is pretty amazing. Someone mentioned 1911-1912. Could we recreate the blue norther of 11-11-1911? If we displace the AO in late fall, it could be similarly impressive. One thing that is noteworthy also, usually when the AO index is falling, Arctic temps are usually rising or warm. You mentioned the Arctic is much below average temperature wise at the moment yet here goes the AO...

 

If the AO cracks and the Arctic is still in the deep freeze, there's almost a guarantee of more cold than you need and I imagine it could be hard to move too. I'm anxiously awaiting a very nice dry cold front to kill this heat once and for all.

 

The sun is dead. QBO is perfect finally. I don't know what more to ask for.

Some folks may wanna cancel the heatcasts for August though.

[NEJeremy]

Honestly, I see no way we don't have a real winter here. I'd love to see a 1978, only with more snow. Over 30 consecutive days with snowcover is pretty amazing. Someone mentioned 1911-1912. Could we recreate the blue norther of 11-11-1911? If we displace the AO in late fall, it could be similarly impressive. One thing that is noteworthy also, usually when the AO index is falling, Arctic temps are usually rising or warm. You mentioned the Arctic is much below average temperature wise at the moment yet here goes the AO...

ao.sprd2(3).gif

 

If the AO cracks and the Arctic is still in the deep freeze, there's almost a guarantee of more cold than you need and I imagine it could be hard to move too. I'm anxiously awaiting a very nice dry cold front to kill this heat once and for all.

 

The sun is dead. QBO is perfect finally. I don't know what more to ask for.

Some folks may wanna cancel the heatcasts for August though.

Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly. 

 

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:

November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

 

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE?  Very rare.  

 

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

[Minny_Weather]

Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly. 

 

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:

November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

 

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE?  Very rare.  

 

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

The majority of snow did fall in December, but it was remarkable because that year we kept a snowcover from December 9 all the way until March 2. Even in the coldest Winters that is unheard of. February was warm-ish (multiple days in the 40s), but density of the snowpack combined with a reinforcing storm kept it on the ground until March.

[OKwx2k4]

Question on something I'm not understanding. If sunspots are a precursor of cold conditions, how come when the last time the sunspots were nonexistent in the late 2000s, temperatures were still so warm? At the time 2009 was the 2nd warmest year for the planet and 2010 was tied for the warmest with 2005. I know sunspots are only one part of the formula, but talking about a Nino normally also means warmer than normal conditions here as well. Winter 2009-2010 is infamous here for the amount of snow we had in December, but it was warmer than normal leading up to December and most of the snow for the winter fell in December and early January if I remember correctly.

 

Found this interesting stat for Lincoln:

November 2009 high temperatures in Lincoln averaged 1.9 F warmer than October 2009!

 

How rare is this to have November be warmer than October in Lincoln, NE? Very rare.

 

In fact this has only occurred once before in the 123 years of data (1887-2009) for Lincoln and that was in 1925 when November 1925 average high temperatures were 0.2 F warmer than the previous month October 1925.

It's as simple as the AO crashed in October and rebounded in November only to crash again in December-January. Global temps and US temps are 2 totally different things. Next to 2000, I think 2009 was my only other cold October in recent memory. Second place if I'm not mistaken. Wouldn't have been that hard to beat a normal November. You didn't give a temp contrast like that back in 2000 between October and November?

 

Not hard to find the heat right now.

 

 

We're so different than a decade ago right now that it's ridiculous. All NH heat appears to be in the mid-latitudes, not the Arctic.