Niko Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 Yeah, that other outlook (the one where we're in the Casino) had the NE as the "snow factory" and I believe it. Not that they've been so snow starved in recent years either, but they've got the warm ocean going for them whenever the SE Ridge breaks down enough to allow cold east of the Appalachians. There's still a wild-card that the GL's may do better than in past analog winters tho, so stay tuned..Interesting Winter shaping up buddy. Could be one wild ride for us. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 All great points above. Like them all very very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 To add to the greatness of the soon to come winter, here is another outlook. Firsthand weather is a pretty solid group of guys. It's nice to be in the "B" region, I'll say that. http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/OKwx we may have something to talk about this winter ! I can pass on the ice, but nice to be in the snow region. I'm going to stock up! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 This winter is starting to sound like the "Great Winter of 2018-19" is on it's way very very soon.Hope it rivals "The Great Winter" of: 1899-1900. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 Tornados on the east coast....comparisons to '79? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 This posted by OKwx2k4http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-29-at-3.59.42-PM.png Not bad for the GL'S region, but I wouldn't mind being in the "D" category. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 Notice how none of the winter forecasts ever have the Northeast in for a snowless winter. It just doesn't make sense for these facebook pages and blogs given that 95% of their base consists of snow weenies in NYC and Boston, they'll unsubscribe when the forecast doesn't suit their fantasy. I've personally quit looking at long range/seasonal forecasts all together and it's relieving to say the least. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 Last year, my skill hill opened November 11th, a very early start, and then closed for a week or two. We'll see where we stand. I've still been going in the lake, it's been cold, but I plan for one last ride tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2018 Report Share Posted October 30, 2018 Notice how none of the winter forecasts ever have the Northeast in for a snowless winter. It just doesn't make sense for these facebook pages and blogs given that 95% of their base consists of snow weenies in NYC and Boston, they'll unsubscribe when the forecast doesn't suit their fantasy. I've personally quit looking at long range/seasonal forecasts all together and it's relieving to say the least.Yep. There are some people who you will never see forecast a bad winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2018 Report Share Posted October 31, 2018 This posted by OKwx2k4http://firsthandweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Screen-Shot-2018-10-29-at-3.59.42-PM.png Not bad for the GL'S region, but I wouldn't mind being in the "D" category. It's not "in the books" yet. I would not be surprised if that "snow factory" zone is extended further west and/or shifted further west. If you read their text, they cite the dominant neutral to positive AO/NAO combo as continuing thru winter (favors us back in the GL's) with "bouts" of neg NAO shifting action S and/or East at times. Other sources mention the late-blooming Nino means the early part of winter (mid-Nov to mid-Jan) would be focused back in the Midwest/Lakes and the EC's winter would be focused on mid-Jan to mid-March, possibly we all get another month of fun into mid-April like back in '82. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 31, 2018 Report Share Posted October 31, 2018 Yep. There are some people who you will never see forecast a bad winter. Do you want a bad winter? Mega-Nino incoming for Hoosier's back yard. I don't know if you could find an analog winter (let alone a set) that gave every region east of the Rockies a great season. Always ends up some zone gets screwed. '81-82 may be close, but I wasn't paying attention to how The Plains did that year? I know Minny got rocked! This season has rare potential to make most happy and their forecast reflects that. You can nickel-n-dime your way to above avg snowfall if you have robust and lingering cold. Just on longevity of season if not on active storm tracks like we enjoyed in 07-08, 08-09, & 13-14 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2018 Report Share Posted October 31, 2018 Do you want a bad winter? Mega-Nino incoming for Hoosier's back yard. I don't know if you could find an analog winter (let alone a set) that gave every region east of the Rockies a great season. Always ends up some zone gets screwed. '81-82 may be close, but I wasn't paying attention to how The Plains did that year? I know Minny got rocked! This season has rare potential to make most happy and their forecast reflects that. You can nickel-n-dime your way to above avg snowfall if you have robust and lingering cold. Just on longevity of season if not on active storm tracks like we enjoyed in 07-08, 08-09, & 13-14I'd like a great winter. However, I'm at the point where I pretty much couldn't care less if it's not a great winter. I don't live in a prime snow location and I don't do winter sports. Crappy winters used to bother me a lot when I was a kid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted October 31, 2018 Report Share Posted October 31, 2018 I'd like a great winter. However, I'm at the point where I pretty much couldn't care less if it's not a great winter. I don't live in a prime snow location and I don't do winter sports. Crappy winters used to bother me a lot when I was a kid.My entire childhood was filled with crappy winters bud! I got used to it haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 31, 2018 Report Share Posted October 31, 2018 It's not "in the books" yet. I would not be surprised if that "snow factory" zone is extended further west and/or shifted further west. If you read their text, they cite the dominant neutral to positive AO/NAO combo as continuing thru winter (favors us back in the GL's) with "bouts" of neg NAO shifting action S and/or East at times. Other sources mention the late-blooming Nino means the early part of winter (mid-Nov to mid-Jan) would be focused back in the Midwest/Lakes and the EC's winter would be focused on mid-Jan to mid-March, possibly we all get another month of fun into mid-April like back in '82. Hopefully, they change it like you are saying. Darn it.....I want that letta "D". 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Eurasian Snowcover extent shot out of a canon during the last days of October, as well as, the entire Northern Hemisphere.... Eurasia... Northern Hemisphere... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 1, 2018 Report Share Posted November 1, 2018 Do you want a bad winter? Mega-Nino incoming for Hoosier's back yard. I don't know if you could find an analog winter (let alone a set) that gave every region east of the Rockies a great season. Always ends up some zone gets screwed. '81-82 may be close, but I wasn't paying attention to how The Plains did that year? I know Minny got rocked! This season has rare potential to make most happy and their forecast reflects that. You can nickel-n-dime your way to above avg snowfall if you have robust and lingering cold. Just on longevity of season if not on active storm tracks like we enjoyed in 07-08, 08-09, & 13-14 :lol: Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Eurasian Snowcover extent shot out of a canon during the last days of October, as well as, the entire Northern Hemisphere.... Eurasia... Northern Hemisphere... Not sure that hurts our cause tbh. Seems we had a good deal of cross-polar flow during '13-14. I believe that the S Hemi had a pretty harsh winter. Might be the N Hemi's turn. Dr. Cohen's outlook may be in jeopardy. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Not sure that hurts our cause tbh. Seems we had a good deal of cross-polar flow during '13-14. I believe that the S Hemi had a pretty harsh winter. Might be the N Hemi's turn. Dr. Cohen's outlook may be in jeopardy. In his defense, he stated that his model may be to warm and will have to make some final adjustments. I'm almost certain he will based on what he's seeing is happening with the PV thus far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 2, 2018 Report Share Posted November 2, 2018 Here ya go Jaster.......enjoy! https://www.woodtv.com/weather/2018-19-west-michigan-winter-forecast/1566756760 Edit: westMJim is in this as well. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 Folks seem to forget that it's the -EPO/+PNA that delivers the cold, it's a -NAO that locks it in. -NAO very useful for storm purposes if blocking is in the right place, but without the Pacific pattern being right you could get a -NAO & a lot of warmth like 2011-12. So, here's to Pacific delivering the goods! And it appears NAO may have more negative bouts than first anticipated...hopefully 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 For us older folks on the forum- how about the following song from Black Sabbath being our song for the upcoming winter? "Snowblind" released in the Fall of 1972 says it all for us winter freaks-- What you get and what you see Things that don't come easily (models vs reality)Feeling happy in my pain Icicles within my brain.Something blowing in my head (not enough sleep)Winds of ice that soon will spreadDown to freeze my very soul Makes me happy, makes me coldMy eyes are blind but I can see The snowflakes glisten on the tree The sun no longer sets me freeI feel the snowflakes freezing me Let the winter sunshine on Let me feel the frost of dawn Build my dreams on flakes of snowSoon I’ll feel the chilling glow Don't you think I know what I'm doing Don't tell me that it's doing me wrong You're the one that's really the loserThis is where I feel I belong Kiss the world with winter flowers Turn my days to frozen hours Lying snowblind in the sunWill my ice age ever come? 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 3, 2018 Report Share Posted November 3, 2018 For us older folks on the forum- how about the following song from Black Sabbath being our song for the upcoming winter? "Snowblind" released in the Fall of 1972 says it all for us winter freaks-- What you get and what you see Things that don't come easily (models vs reality)Feeling happy in my pain Icicles within my brain.Something blowing in my head (not enough sleep)Winds of ice that soon will spreadDown to freeze my very soul Makes me happy, makes me coldMy eyes are blind but I can see The snowflakes glisten on the tree The sun no longer sets me freeI feel the snowflakes freezing me Let the winter sunshine on Let me feel the frost of dawn Build my dreams on flakes of snowSoon I’ll feel the chilling glow Don't you think I know what I'm doing Don't tell me that it's doing me wrong You're the one that's really the loserThis is where I feel I belong Kiss the world with winter flowers Turn my days to frozen hours Lying snowblind in the sunWill my ice age ever come?Don't have to be old to appreciate some of that. Great tune. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Nice firsthand account from Canton, OH (not even the hardest hit region) of the '78 bomb. Such a massive and incredible beast of a storm. Glad this story ended happily I will add. Memoir Reflection: The ice was thick and slick as the previous rains froze fast and hard. Inches of snow and winds followed rapidly as I laid in my hospital bed after giving birth to my first child. I was in the precious moments with my new baby girl and oblivious to how truly dangerous it was outside. But then for the first time of my husbands career at Con-Rail, was called out for emergency help to keep the trains moving. For they held the many valuable resources to sustain people"s needs. When he showed concern, I knew it was bad. It took a lot to make him concerned and he was very much so for the trip home. Soon the day came to be released and I was fully aware of the dangers now. I asked my Doctor if we could stay another day and he approved it. However, he stated that this is no guarantee that it could be worse travel by tomorrow? It now became our decision to gamble according to the forecast. I was terrified to take our newborn ( Shawnna ) on these roads from Aultman Hospital to Paris Ohio. People died walking from stranded cars.... People died staying in their cars. I begged for an ambulance to take us home safely, to no avail. If only I had a video of the minus 60 degree wind chill winds gusting against our very old sand filled pick up truck with chains that he put on all four tires. Chains that dug into the 4 inches of ice beneath us. Looking down at my precious newborn daughter crying, I said to myself, I knew you were too good to be true. As I feared the worst and prayed for God to keep us on the road. The flour like powder blinded our path to be able to see what was road and what was drifts as high as 6 feet. Randomly placed due to the blizzard winds. If a car was on the road you didn't know it until you were right on top of them. No lanes were designated on this trip, just wherever you could drive was all that mattered. One thing I remember wishing was a way to call for help if we did get blown into a ditch.. Today a cell phone video of our trip home would have been all over the news, it was so terrifying) .... This is the true meaning for having a cell phone in 1978. . . I know for me I would have felt safer. Needless to say we made it home in 2 plus hrs of nerve racking, blood pressure rising, hard breathing fear. Covering with layers of blanks over our baby and cautious steps into the old but very warm farm house, was an exhausted sigh of relief for both of us. " Home Sweet Home" Cassie J. Volzer 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 4, 2018 Report Share Posted November 4, 2018 Interesting take on the NAO in this study for those concern: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-00353-y Also mentioned (by EC weenies) is that the SAI across Eurasia was slow starting but finished strong, and somewhere there may be a parallel correlation as to how the winter plays out along the Atlantic Seaboard. Will be interesting to see. DT has gone bonkers with a 200% snowfall total for basically the entire MA thru NE Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Something to pass the time while we await #realwinter storms. Would've been perfect if it included Buffalo '77 and the two 1978 blizzards. Should do a sequel on those me thinks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAoQ62D_Gfc 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Something to pass the time while we await #realwinter storms. Would've been perfect if it included Buffalo '77 and the two 1978 blizzards. Should do a sequel on those me thinks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAoQ62D_GfcMan, we need a blizzard like the one shown in the video above for this upcoming Winter. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Here we go, CFSv2 starting to flip towards an amplified North American pattern for December.....last 10 runs showing what happens to a model when it finally resolves it's feedback problems in the NE PAC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2018 Report Share Posted November 5, 2018 Here we go, CFSv2 starting to flip towards an amplified North American pattern for December.....last 10 runs showing what happens to a model when it finally resolves it's feedback problems in the NE PAC.Now if it can just get the surface temps right, we'll be in business. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 WxBell updated their winter call. Hard to argue the snow map, lol. His/their line of above/below normal runs dead-nuts with my own, as much as I'd like to be further into the AN zone, hehehe Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Jaster, if that plays out exactly like you said, it would match step for step. Nice call! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 6, 2018 Report Share Posted November 6, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2018 Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Gotta say.....this Autumn has been pretty wild so far. Lots of moisture, wind and below normal temps. Very few days have been above normal. Also, a lot of stratus on none-precip days. And I cant leave out the 1.2" of snow I received on October 14th! I hope this wild ride keeps on trucking into the Winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 8, 2018 Report Share Posted November 8, 2018 Heck yes, James. It looks like I'm starting winter down here in November! It's awesome. I'm sort of afraid to talk about it in fear of messing it up. Going to be a long train ride friends. I'm looking forward to it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 LOL, this is prob the craziest run I've seen off the Brazilian....#nuclearwinter...FWIW, its been increasingly advertising more runs of a cold and active winter around these parts. http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2018110812/08808W4158N.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Euro Weeklies are advertising a December full of NW flow and warmth. Here's to hoping that all of the members that are advertising it are dead wrong cuz I am NOT gonna put up with another bad December after such a good Fall. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Euro Weeklies are advertising a December full of NW flow and warmth. Here's to hoping that all of the members that are advertising it are dead wrong cuz I am NOT gonna put up with another bad December after such a good Fall.Did you notice how it trended colder for Week 3 to close out Nov and open Dec?? Its really having a terrible time in the NE PAC and as you get deeper into winter, this feedback becomes a big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Euro Weeklies are advertising a December full of NW flow and warmth. Here's to hoping that all of the members that are advertising it are dead wrong cuz I am NOT gonna put up with another bad December after such a good Fall.I think we get far fewer warm days than cold ones from here on. Parts of December look pretty wild to me. In other news, real accumulating snow is looking more likely than not over the next 5-6 days here. Understand last nights euro 00z had higher amounts for me in the means than the control. That's usually a sign of great consistency. I'll take an inch of snow in November. I don't think I'm going to have to worry about storms hitting me this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Did you notice how it trended colder for Week 3 to close out Nov and open Dec?? Its really having a terrible time in the NE PAC and as you get deeper into winter, this feedback becomes a big deal.Yeah I did and I'm hoping those trends continue. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 Did you notice how it trended colder for Week 3 to close out Nov and open Dec?? Its really having a terrible time in the NE PAC and as you get deeper into winter, this feedback becomes a big deal.This is true. It's almost like it doesn't shorten the wavelengths of the pattern at the appropriate speed or something. I'd give it time to actually digest the whole scale of rapid changes before running out much over 2 weeks on it right now. Thought you made a great point there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 9, 2018 Report Share Posted November 9, 2018 46 day snowfall 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.