Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[OKwx2k4]

October-New years 2009

 

Naturally, there's gonna be a warm spot when you do this. November 09 just didn't have any cold air left til December's AO crash. Naturally October beat it in negative temp anoms. When the AO finally tanks again this fall, (it will) all the Arctic heat talk will fire back up again while everyone ignores where the cold gets knocked off the pole to.

[NEJeremy]

It's as simple as the AO crashed in October and rebounded in November only to crash again in December-January. Global temps and US temps are 2 totally different things. Next to 2000, I think 2009 was my only other cold October in recent memory. Second place if I'm not mistaken. Wouldn't have been that hard to beat a normal November. You didn't give a temp contrast like that back in 2000 between October and November?

 

Not hard to find the heat right now.

 

CW000_24HR_MAXTEMP_DAY_E_0.png

 

We're so different than a decade ago right now that it's ridiculous. All NH heat appears to be in the mid-latitudes, not the Arctic.

Sorry for the dumb question I guess. I'm aware of global temps and US temps being totally different. I had inferred that low sunspot activity meant the planet would be cooler, not just part of one continent. 

The statistic about Lincoln came up when I was trying to refresh my memory what things were like around here back in 2009 during the last low sunspot activity and thought it was a pretty cool stat since that was only the 2nd time in 125 years of record keeping that the average November temp was higher than October.

[NEJeremy]

The majority of snow did fall in December, but it was remarkable because that year we kept a snowcover from December 9 all the way until March 2. Even in the coldest Winters that is unheard of. February was warm-ish (multiple days in the 40s), but density of the snowpack combined with a reinforcing storm kept it on the ground until March.

Yeah I remember the snowpack sticking around forever. Set records I believe

[OKwx2k4]

Sorry for the dumb question I guess. I'm aware of global temps and US temps being totally different. I had inferred that low sunspot activity meant the planet would be cooler, not just part of one continent.

The statistic about Lincoln came up when I was trying to refresh my memory what things were like around here back in 2009 during the last low sunspot activity and thought it was a pretty cool stat since that was only the 2nd time in 125 years of record keeping that the average November temp was higher than October.

Not a dumb question. I'm so sorry if my reply read that way. That is a very impressive and unusual stat/accomplishment.

[Tom]

In year's past, I have found a correlation between the location of the strat warming and eventually where blocking develops in a 2-3 week period.  I know it is very early to even talk about this, but I have never seen this happen in mid/late summer.  Is it a coincidence that there is warming at 30mb during a deep -QBO, low solar period???  Currently, 30mb readings are rising per the latest data....see below...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

This animation below shows the beginning of when the warming really begins expanding around 7/11....

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

What is interesting about all of this, the 2-3 week lag period of when the strat warming began, fits what the models are beginning to show.  The location of this warming is directly over the Pole.  Models are now sniffing out a slightly -AO...pretty neat how this all ties together.

 

 

JMA 30mb zonal winds showing no signs of trending positive, in fact, next month may register an even steeper -QBO reading.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

[OKwx2k4]

In year's past, I have found a correlation between the location of the strat warming and eventually where blocking develops in a 2-3 week period. I know it is very early to even talk about this, but I have never seen this happen in mid/late summer. Is it a coincidence that there is warming at 30mb during a deep -QBO, low solar period??? Currently, 30mb readings are rising per the latest data....see below...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

 

This animation below shows the beginning of when the warming really begins expanding around 7/11....

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

What is interesting about all of this, the 2-3 week lag period of when the strat warming began, fits what the models are beginning to show. The location of this warming is directly over the Pole. Models are now sniffing out a slightly -AO...pretty neat how this all ties together.

 

 

JMA 30mb zonal winds showing no signs of trending positive, in fact, next month may register an even steeper -QBO reading.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

Might be the first time in 3-4 years I haven't been too fast with a pattern change. A COLD pattern change at that!! :lol:

[Tom]

Might be the first time in 3-4 years I haven't been too fast with a pattern change. A COLD pattern change at that!! :lol:

The cards you need to be aligned down your way are looking optimistic.  Although, we need to see how/where the storm track develops in Oct/Nov to really get a good picture.

[indianajohn]

Hey guys hope everyone is having a great summer!!!. I have a question regarding the volcanic activity this year and the affect it has on the weather especially winter seasons. Is there any data supporting this one way or another??

[OKwx2k4]

Hey guys hope everyone is having a great summer!!!. I have a question regarding the volcanic activity this year and the affect it has on the weather especially winter seasons. Is there any data supporting this one way or another??

Enhanced volcanic activity is known to both cool the globe and enhance blocking in the N. Hem winter months. Depending on the latitude, magnitude, season, etc..., you can probably expect changes or effects as early as 6 months or as long as 1.5 years in some instances. The effects can last from 1.5 years to 3 years depending on many many variables. A high amount of suspended volcanic ash in the atmosphere (at certain levels) has been known to radically enhance snowfall ratios in the winter also.

 

Best answer I have for you off the top of my head.

[Tom]

The CanSIPS latest outlook for August...hmmm, looks rather blocky and amplified if you ask me...

 

[Tom]

If you thought I was crazy when I said this winter would be an extreme one across N.A., the CanSIPS has a textbook cold/stormy winter across the CONUS.  Back-to-back runs showing a wild looking pattern.  This model has been steadfast on this pattern since really back in March if you flip through the previous runs.

 

 

 

Finally, as for the ENSO forecast, it is also trending cooler with the central PAC "modoki" Nino.  Notice the cooler trends.

[Tom]

If your looking for a cool start to Autumn, the CanSIPS says yes...

 

[OKwx2k4]

If CanSIPS is right, might be the stormiest winter for me in decades. What a crazy pattern.

[Tom]

If CanSIPS is right, might be the stormiest winter for me in decades. What a crazy pattern.

From a modeling standpoint, I'm seeing a nice set up for your region.  I'd like to see how the new LRC sets up in Oct/Nov before jumping to any conclusions.  Always a fun time seeing a new cyclical pattern evolve.

[Tom]

Interesting tidbit regarding solar activity...

 

 

 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com Retweeted

Commodity Wx Group‏ @commoditywx 9h9 hours ago

More

July's sunspot number of 1.6 is the quietest since August 2009 and helps steer this deeper and faster than the prior very deep minimum. As a result...and pending continuity of these trends into the autumn...we may see colder impacts as early as inside this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Interesting tidbit regarding solar activity...

I agree 100 percent.

[OKwx2k4]

To say that I like this development going forward 30 days or so to met fall is a dramatic understatement. Along with the observations posted about volcanism and solar, it definitely makes the mind ponder the outcome we have to look forward to.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/26/noaa-winter-weather-forecast-outlook-for-2018-2019/

[OKwx2k4]

NOAA:

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/26/noaa-winter-weather-forecast-outlook-for-2018-2019/

NOAA:Non-Operational Atmospheric Agency? Just kidding, sort of.

 

They want a Niño really badly for global temperature purposes.

[james1976]

[Tom]

The latest data for the QBO continues on the decline (-29.10), down from June's reading of (-28.45).  Good trends.

 

Edit: Just read that this is a record low reading for July!

 

30mb zonal winds...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

[Minny_Weather]

NOAA:

 

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/26/noaa-winter-weather-forecast-outlook-for-2018-2019/

What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.

[Niko]

What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.

.....I know right......they are probably thinking, lets play it like this and call it a day.

[Niko]

NOAA:Non-Operational Atmospheric Agency? Just kidding, sort of.

 

They want a Niño really badly for global temperature purposes.

I bet that will make their forecast this upcoming Winter a lot easier, if that was to verify.

[OKwx2k4]

What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.

"They've been paying us to do this for 20 years." "I know right! Lol. Think this forecast will work again?" "The NAO and AO are going negat...." "Yep, just roll with it. Worked last 8 times." :lol:

 

My imagination of the thought that goes into those forecasts between the forecasters.

[Hawkeye]

I swear, NOAA has my area in the near to below avg precip every winter, regardless of ENSO status.

[Hoosier]

What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.

Years ago I was at a weather conference where Dr. Louis Uccellini was a speaker, and he basically said what we already know... predicted ENSO state and overall warming trends factor heavily into the NOAA seasonal outlooks. Of course we have had some cold winters in recent years, and so the long range NOAA outlooks have missed the mark at times.

 

I'm all for pushing the boundaries of the science, but at this time I would say it is almost impossible to make reliable winter forecasts during the summer months. Things like the NAO, AO, etc. really have low predictability so far out. Hell, sometimes we're not even sure what ENSO will be like.

[Tom]

For all you winter wx fans, this is the type of 500mb winter pattern where dreams become reality.  Glad to see another seasonal model on board with the idea of a wild Winter season ahead.  Fits my thinking for quite some time now.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

For all you winter wx fans, this is the type of 500mb winter pattern where dreams become reality. Glad to see another seasonal model on board with the idea of a wild Winter season ahead. Fits my thinking for quite some time now.

 

 

Best map ever. Literally, best map ever. Did I already say that? That'd literally be one of the best winters of my life. If we could just deal out all the winter storms from 100-150 miles to my southeast all winter, that'd be great.

[Tom]

Best map ever. Literally, best map ever. Did I already say that? That'd literally be one of the best winters of my life. If we could just deal out all the winter storms from 100-150 miles to my southeast all winter, that'd be great.

I know it’s still early to get excited, but boy, what a run for your area. I just got this feeling your going to do real well this season.

[OKwx2k4]

I know it’s still early to get excited, but boy, what a run for your area. I just got this feeling your going to do real well this season.

Yes. It's tempered optimism. After the last 4 years I've had, I've finally learned my lesson I think. Lol.

[Tom]

Wx Bell's Winter Outlook comes out this Saturday for the public, but here is a glimpse of what they are thinking temp wise...

[Minny_Weather]

Wx Bell's Winter Outlook comes out this Saturday for the public, but here is a glimpse of what they are thinking temp wise...

That looks pretty niño focused with an East coast bias as well.

[Niko]

I keep hearing and reading that the EC this upcoming Winter will encounter a really harsh Winter (up and down the i-95 corridor). Still too early, but its looking like a severe Winter might be in the cards for them. Hopefully, we get included as well in the Gl's region.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice FB post from Bastardi this morning. Given the pattern I'm under for the next week or so, it'll be something I pay attention to.

 

"Rain means something, not just it's raining hard. It very often signals a cooling occurring or being aimed at the area (vs the normals) in a large sense in the coming month will be interesting to see if where rain is above normal. May-November correlates to coldest areas in winter."

[OKwx2k4]

I have also long known of the old folklore that says "fogs in August foretell cold winter" or "the number of fogs in August is how many times it will snow." Best way to get fog in August here is with rainfall and cool nights. Just for another fog note, this summer was the first of my life I have saw fog until 10 am on July 31.

[Tom]

Nice FB post from Bastardi this morning. Given the pattern I'm under for the next week or so, it'll be something I pay attention to.

 

"Rain means something, not just it's raining hard. It very often signals a cooling occurring or being aimed at the area (vs the normals) in a large sense in the coming month will be interesting to see if where rain is above normal. May-November correlates to coldest areas in winter."

After I read that myself, I couldn’t happen to take that analogy and use it to provide a clue as to where the storms will track out of this Autumn. The big flip to wet across TX and OK this week is a big deal. This may be a clue for you, esp bc this precip pattern was non existent the father west you go from you. I mean, the models are showing 2 systems back-2-back coming out of the S Plains up towards the GL’s/OV. Very odd to see that in Aug.

[OKwx2k4]

After I read that myself, I couldn’t happen to take that analogy and use it to provide a clue as to where the storms will track out of this Autumn. The big flip to wet across TX and OK this week is a big deal. This may be a clue for you, esp bc this precip pattern was non existent the father west you go from you. I mean, the models are showing 2 systems back-2-back coming out of the S Plains up towards the GL’s/OV. Very odd to see that in Aug.

Yes. From those 2 back-to-back rain events a few days ago to this pattern for the rest of August, something us definitely different. I saw a mean of 6" of precip for me yesterday over the next 15 days. That's a significant difference.

 

One other thing I came to point out. I live in a wooded area where there have or had been known to be bears. There have been 10 bear sightings in my county alone in the last 15-20 days or so. Something is up. No one has ever heard of seeing 10 bears and usually never in August. Its usually September or even October in a lot of years.

[Tom]

If the Euro Weeklies are right, it would flip the script of having a warm September over the last few years.  I think it has the right idea given the pattern that is evolving.  Give me a warm Labor Day weekend and I could deal with a cooler rest of the month.

 

Sept Week 2...

 

 

Sept Week 3...

 

 

Sept Week 4...

 

[OKwx2k4]

If the Euro Weeklies are right, it would flip the script of having a warm September over the last few years. I think it has the right idea given the pattern that is evolving. Give me a warm Labor Day weekend and I could deal with a cooler rest of the month.

 

Sept Week 2...

 

 

Sept Week 3...

 

 

Sept Week 4...

 

Holy moly. Happy happy fall there.