Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 2013-14 repeat pls! Can you pick an even worse year for here please? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 2013-14 repeat pls! I wouldn't count out this one either: 1842-43: Earlier 1800s winters were no picnic. Less precise recordings are available from that time, but sources like Nathan Power's diary indicate that the winter of 1842-43 was particularly brutal, with plenty of snow (Power records many days of good "sleighing" weather) and livestock deaths. Power, a Farmington founding father and school teacher, wrote this about the 1842-43 winter: "This is set down as the coldest and most snowy and longest winter that has been in 50 years. The first thawing day was on the 1st day of 4th mo., and there was as much snow on the ground on that day as perhaps had fallen in the 5 proceeding winters." 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 I wouldn't count out this one either: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 I can't help but get excited about the new LRC, esp when I see the warm pools aligning just right across the N PAC. I'm very encouraged to see the warmest waters tucked into the NE PAC and developing cooler waters to the SW. This allows the Alaskan Ridge to fire up and as we progress through the cold season, the jet will eventually cut underneath. In previous year's, this ridge hugged the west coast which did not allow a favorable environment for systems to hold together as they moved underneath the ridge. IMO, the current state of the SST's is the most ideal look I've seen in the +PDO era of late. Last night's 00z GEFS, clearly show the "effects" of these waters and nature will do what she does best....pop that ridge...we are going to get a glimpse of the new LRC as we close out Sept. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 Can you pick an even worse year for here please?I know.......that year for ya guys was horrible. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 I know.......that year for ya guys was horrible. This year will treat our Neb buddies much better than 2013-14 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 This year will treat our Neb buddies much better than 2013-14 Hopefully! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 I can't help but get excited about the new LRC, esp when I see the warm pools aligning just right across the N PAC. I'm very encouraged to see the warmest waters tucked into the NE PAC and developing cooler waters to the SW. This allows the Alaskan Ridge to fire up and as we progress through the cold season, the jet will eventually cut underneath. In previous year's, this ridge hugged the west coast which did not allow a favorable environment for systems to hold together as they moved underneath the ridge. IMO, the current state of the SST's is the most ideal look I've seen in the +PDO era of late. Last night's 00z GEFS, clearly show the "effects" of these waters and nature will do what she does best....pop that ridge...we are going to get a glimpse of the new LRC as we close out Sept.That's a beautiful trough. Should be the first well blocked trough of the year also. This winter is a walk-off, no-doubter for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 Everything I have been reading/seeing is showing roughly average temps. with below average precip for the second half of winter up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 19, 2018 Report Share Posted September 19, 2018 Finally took a peek at WxBell's first winter forecast from early August. I can see exactly why JB would be hyping the coming winter. Based on his two fave analogs of 02-03 & 09-10 (with 14-15 as an outside shot) he can't help but be pumped. Those were both OHV and eastward (thru his back yard) stellar cold-n-snowy seasons. For SMI west of Detroit, 02-03 featured a few avg snow systems but was mostly a cold (early cold too) and fairly dry winter. 2009-10 was the Nino that was trumped by the excessive neg NAO that turned out more like a hybrid of sorts. Dec was good, Jan horrid boring, then Feb rocked, but nothing like the S and or Eastern Seaboard where they set all kinds of records. Ofc, 09-10 treated Nebraska and the south really well so they'll be hoping for that scenario and heaven knows, they're more than due. His analogs from an ENSO state are an almost identical spike match on the chart. Question is (for mby) can we get an even weaker Nino signal and thus improve my chances (and everyone else N and/or W of Detroit) of getting a farther north primary storm track?? Another point he makes that I do agree with is based on a dramatic cooling of global SST's, especially in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans: This will have big MJO implications if this holds into the winter season. In a large sense, I think it will. It will focus stronger convection in the colder MJO phases for the U.S. His list did include the vaunted 77-78 season, which ofc was a weaker Nino. Surprisingly tho, for Battle Creek and/or Marshall, if you take away the MOABlizzard's snow totals of 2-3 feet, the non-LES regions of SMI did NOT have a snowy winter. Even in that season, while the cold was early and robust, the primary track (2 out of the 3 major blizzards in that historic 3 week period) were an "OHV-to-Boston special" and ofc the New England monster in early Feb with Massachusetts being ground zero. Which means, the general theme for SMI was cold, NW winds blowing over Lake Michigan gave plenty of LES to those regions favored by that wind direction, but otherwise it was a fairly suppressed storm track for the GL's. Battle Creek for instance would have been 24" below avg if you take the big bliz out of the picture! Notably, while Detroit missed out on the major totals of the bomb, over all it scored one of it's snowier seasons so the similarities to 02-03 which also treated DTW very well, they are there in the analogs for sure. In 77-78 DTW scored 61.7" and 02-03 was almost identical coming in at 60.9" total. Both far above avg and rank as some of the better seasons for cold & snowfall in that far SE corner of The Mitt. As I am a SEMI native, I know that they make out best in seasons with strong blocking and overwhelming cold. So, my take-away is that I'm not terribly excited for mby directly, but I certainly can share Tom's (and other's) excitement for some serious cold, active, and for the luckiest of the lucky, the potential for something historic in the making just based on how things appear to be lining up during this late summer (solar speaking). Ofc, I commute and work in the LES snow belt of SWMI so either way, I should expect to see my fair share of snow falling. All it takes is cold air and some trigger like a FROPA and it's "game on" around here! Here's to hoping most in this sub score big and score often during the upcoming winter. Happy storm tracking to all.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2018 Report Share Posted September 19, 2018 Finally took a peek at WxBell's first winter forecast from early August. I can see exactly why JB would be hyping the coming winter. Based on his two fave analogs of 02-03 & 09-10 (with 14-15 as an outside shot) he can't help but be pumped. Those were both OHV and eastward (thru his back yard) stellar cold-n-snowy seasons. For SMI west of Detroit, 02-03 featured a few avg snow systems but was mostly a cold (early cold too) and fairly dry winter. 2009-10 was the Nino that was trumped by the excessive neg NAO that turned out more like a hybrid of sorts. Dec was good, Jan horrid boring, then Feb rocked, but nothing like the S and or Eastern Seaboard where they set all kinds of records. Ofc, 09-10 treated Nebraska and the south really well so they'll be hoping for that scenario and heaven knows, they're more than due. His analogs from an ENSO state are an almost identical spike match on the chart. Question is (for mby) can we get an even weaker Nino signal and thus improve my chances (and everyone else N and/or W of Detroit) of getting a farther north primary storm track?? 20180919 ENSO Analogs.PNG Another point he makes that I do agree with is based on a dramatic cooling of global SST's, especially in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans: His list did include the vaunted 77-78 season, which ofc was a weaker Nino. Surprisingly tho, for Battle Creek and/or Marshall, if you take away the MOABlizzard's snow totals of 2-3 feet, the non-LES regions of SMI did NOT have a snowy winter. Even in that season, while the cold was early and robust, the primary track (2 out of the 3 major blizzards in that historic 3 week period) were an "OHV-to-Boston special" and ofc the New England monster in early Feb with Massachusetts being ground zero. Which means, the general theme for SMI was cold, NW winds blowing over Lake Michigan gave plenty of LES to those regions favored by that wind direction, but otherwise it was a fairly suppressed storm track for the GL's. Battle Creek for instance would have been 24" below avg if you take the big bliz out of the picture! BC 5NW 1977-78 Snow total.PNG Notably, while Detroit missed out on the major totals of the bomb, over all it scored one of it's snowier seasons so the similarities to 02-03 which also treated DTW very well, they are there in the analogs for sure. In 77-78 DTW scored 61.7" and 02-03 was almost identical coming in at 60.9" total. Both far above avg and rank as some of the better seasons for cold & snowfall in that far SE corner of The Mitt. As I am a SEMI native, I know that they make out best in seasons with strong blocking and overwhelming cold. So, my take-away is that I'm not terribly excited for mby directly, but I certainly can share Tom's (and other's) excitement for some serious cold, active, and for the luckiest of the lucky, the potential for something historic in the making just based on how things appear to be lining up during this late summer (solar speaking). Ofc, I commute and work in the LES snow belt of SWMI so either way, I should expect to see my far share of snow falling. All it takes is cold air and some trigger like a FROPA and it's "game on" around here! Here's to hoping most in this sub score big and score often during the upcoming winter. Happy storm tracking to all.. Great post! You make some real good points and your comment on a weaker Nino signal would be a better outcome for our region. Let’s see how the central PAC evolves over the next few week and the evolution of the storm track in Oct/Nov. I do feel that this season will provide long duration cold snaps which would be ideal for snow-on-snow and long lasting snow cover. I’m getting a bit giddy already! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 19, 2018 Report Share Posted September 19, 2018 Going strictly off climatology, Canada seeing snowfall already is probably a good sign. I don't really want/see the need to get in to all this teleconnection mumbo jumbo, as I honestly think regular climo verifies better than these long range forecasts do. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 19, 2018 Report Share Posted September 19, 2018 Finally took a peek at WxBell's first winter forecast from early August. I can see exactly why JB would be hyping the coming winter. Based on his two fave analogs of 02-03 & 09-10 (with 14-15 as an outside shot) he can't help but be pumped. Those were both OHV and eastward (thru his back yard) stellar cold-n-snowy seasons. For SMI west of Detroit, 02-03 featured a few avg snow systems but was mostly a cold (early cold too) and fairly dry winter. 2009-10 was the Nino that was trumped by the excessive neg NAO that turned out more like a hybrid of sorts. Dec was good, Jan horrid boring, then Feb rocked, but nothing like the S and or Eastern Seaboard where they set all kinds of records. Ofc, 09-10 treated Nebraska and the south really well so they'll be hoping for that scenario and heaven knows, they're more than due. His analogs from an ENSO state are an almost identical spike match on the chart. Question is (for mby) can we get an even weaker Nino signal and thus improve my chances (and everyone else N and/or W of Detroit) of getting a farther north primary storm track?? 20180919 ENSO Analogs.PNG Another point he makes that I do agree with is based on a dramatic cooling of global SST's, especially in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans: His list did include the vaunted 77-78 season, which ofc was a weaker Nino. Surprisingly tho, for Battle Creek and/or Marshall, if you take away the MOABlizzard's snow totals of 2-3 feet, the non-LES regions of SMI did NOT have a snowy winter. Even in that season, while the cold was early and robust, the primary track (2 out of the 3 major blizzards in that historic 3 week period) were an "OHV-to-Boston special" and ofc the New England monster in early Feb with Massachusetts being ground zero. Which means, the general theme for SMI was cold, NW winds blowing over Lake Michigan gave plenty of LES to those regions favored by that wind direction, but otherwise it was a fairly suppressed storm track for the GL's. Battle Creek for instance would have been 24" below avg if you take the big bliz out of the picture! BC 5NW 1977-78 Snow total.PNG Notably, while Detroit missed out on the major totals of the bomb, over all it scored one of it's snowier seasons so the similarities to 02-03 which also treated DTW very well, they are there in the analogs for sure. In 77-78 DTW scored 61.7" and 02-03 was almost identical coming in at 60.9" total. Both far above avg and rank as some of the better seasons for cold & snowfall in that far SE corner of The Mitt. As I am a SEMI native, I know that they make out best in seasons with strong blocking and overwhelming cold. So, my take-away is that I'm not terribly excited for mby directly, but I certainly can share Tom's (and other's) excitement for some serious cold, active, and for the luckiest of the lucky, the potential for something historic in the making just based on how things appear to be lining up during this late summer (solar speaking). Ofc, I commute and work in the LES snow belt of SWMI so either way, I should expect to see my fair share of snow falling. All it takes is cold air and some trigger like a FROPA and it's "game on" around here! Here's to hoping most in this sub score big and score often during the upcoming winter. Happy storm tracking to all.. Nice! Keep us all updated as Autumn enters. Hoping for a while, snowy, frigid Winter w more records to be broken! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 20, 2018 Report Share Posted September 20, 2018 Finally took a peek at WxBell's first winter forecast from early August. I can see exactly why JB would be hyping the coming winter. Based on his two fave analogs of 02-03 & 09-10 (with 14-15 as an outside shot) he can't help but be pumped. Those were both OHV and eastward (thru his back yard) stellar cold-n-snowy seasons. For SMI west of Detroit, 02-03 featured a few avg snow systems but was mostly a cold (early cold too) and fairly dry winter. 2009-10 was the Nino that was trumped by the excessive neg NAO that turned out more like a hybrid of sorts. Dec was good, Jan horrid boring, then Feb rocked, but nothing like the S and or Eastern Seaboard where they set all kinds of records. Ofc, 09-10 treated Nebraska and the south really well so they'll be hoping for that scenario and heaven knows, they're more than due. His analogs from an ENSO state are an almost identical spike match on the chart. Question is (for mby) can we get an even weaker Nino signal and thus improve my chances (and everyone else N and/or W of Detroit) of getting a farther north primary storm track?? 20180919 ENSO Analogs.PNG Another point he makes that I do agree with is based on a dramatic cooling of global SST's, especially in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans: His list did include the vaunted 77-78 season, which ofc was a weaker Nino. Surprisingly tho, for Battle Creek and/or Marshall, if you take away the MOABlizzard's snow totals of 2-3 feet, the non-LES regions of SMI did NOT have a snowy winter. Even in that season, while the cold was early and robust, the primary track (2 out of the 3 major blizzards in that historic 3 week period) were an "OHV-to-Boston special" and ofc the New England monster in early Feb with Massachusetts being ground zero. Which means, the general theme for SMI was cold, NW winds blowing over Lake Michigan gave plenty of LES to those regions favored by that wind direction, but otherwise it was a fairly suppressed storm track for the GL's. Battle Creek for instance would have been 24" below avg if you take the big bliz out of the picture! BC 5NW 1977-78 Snow total.PNG Notably, while Detroit missed out on the major totals of the bomb, over all it scored one of it's snowier seasons so the similarities to 02-03 which also treated DTW very well, they are there in the analogs for sure. In 77-78 DTW scored 61.7" and 02-03 was almost identical coming in at 60.9" total. Both far above avg and rank as some of the better seasons for cold & snowfall in that far SE corner of The Mitt. As I am a SEMI native, I know that they make out best in seasons with strong blocking and overwhelming cold. So, my take-away is that I'm not terribly excited for mby directly, but I certainly can share Tom's (and other's) excitement for some serious cold, active, and for the luckiest of the lucky, the potential for something historic in the making just based on how things appear to be lining up during this late summer (solar speaking). Ofc, I commute and work in the LES snow belt of SWMI so either way, I should expect to see my fair share of snow falling. All it takes is cold air and some trigger like a FROPA and it's "game on" around here! Here's to hoping most in this sub score big and score often during the upcoming winter. Happy storm tracking to all.. Beautiful write up buddy. I'm so very much looking forward to this winter for all of us. Maybe this will FINALLY be the year I get to celebrate the glory of winter again with the rest of you. And I hope you get a good old fashioned storm up that way too. If this goes the way I think it will, it's a top 10 lock for sure, maybe top 5 all time. So far I couldn't orchestrate or imagine a better set up. Maybe better than I have ever studied. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2018 Report Share Posted September 20, 2018 One of the more exciting opens to any October since I've known about the LRC is in the works. I'm a big believer that something truly spectacular is happening this season. IMHO, when we look back after this long cold season, there will be case studies done and we will have knowingly gone through natures fury. Saddle up, b/c today's JMA weeklies are locking onto a long lasting cool, at times, cold period as we roll into October. The CFSv2 weeklies have been playing catch up, but have since gone into agreement with the JMA. Depending on your location, first flakes will likely fly much earlier this year (if you haven't already seen them by Oct 1st). We are about to see the main Exhibit, for what I feel will be one of the dominant players this year. Take a look at the impressive signal (for 2 weeks in a row), the NE PAC/AK Ridge...SST's across the N PAC are aligning just right.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201809.D1912_gls.pngWeek 2...temps... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201809.D1912_gl2.png Week 3 & 4...(The first 2 weeks of the '18-'19 LRC pattern)...Impressive Aleutian Low, wet signal across the Plains and points east, BN temps east of the Rockies.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201809.D1912_gl0.png Temps... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201809.D1912_gl2.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 20, 2018 Report Share Posted September 20, 2018 CPC's Outlook for October... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 CPC's Outlook for October...Ill take that bulls-eye 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Ill take that bulls-eye I'd say get used to it as the new LRC sets up shop. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 TWC explained on air yesterday that October will be BN for a good chunk of the midwest and parts of the NE as a trough will be entrenched ova that section of the nation. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Its probably been posted already....but could not help show the beauty of this map. OKwx2k4...looking good there! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Its probably been posted already....but could not help show the beauty of this map. OKwx2k4...looking good there! Love it! I'm so freaking excited. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 This would be about as perfect of a set up to the new LRC that we could all ask for! Lets see if it comes true. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 This would be about as perfect of a set up to the new LRC that we could all ask for! Lets see if it comes true.Woohoo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Woohoo! I have further thoughts I'm putting together on the winter, but today's current surface reflection down your way should be a regular feature and you've every right to be stoked buddy! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 I have further thoughts I'm putting together on the winter, but today's current surface reflection down your way should be a regular feature and you've every right to be stoked buddy! 20180921 2pm surf map of the ArkLaTex.GIFBeauty of a spot. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 I have further thoughts I'm putting together on the winter, but today's current surface reflection down your way should be a regular feature and you've every right to be stoked buddy! 20180921 2pm surf map of the ArkLaTex.GIFCan it get better than that? I mean, seriously? This is getting so crazy that I don't even really know how to write what all I think is going to happen down here from late October to April. If you have all known anything about what I think of winter over the last few years, my forecast has written itself. All-out, old-fashioned, "hard tack" winter is on it's way like an avalanche. Anywhere north or east/southeast of Denver, CO is going to get smashed and frozen all winter long. Craziness is coming. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 This would be about as perfect of a set up to the new LRC that we could all ask for! Lets see if it comes true. Yeah, looking at the Oct 1-7 map, that puppy encompasses just about all regular posters in here within the "WET" zone. That would be a bestest case scenario. Remains to be seen tho if the SE ridge portrayed as-is becomes a key feature of the winter, or a more typical Nino pattern sets up and drives the cold conditions further SE as happened in 2009-10 for example. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Can it get better than that? I mean, seriously? This is getting so crazy that I don't even really know how to write what all I think is going to happen down here from late October to April. If you have all known anything about what I think of winter over the last few years, my forecast has written itself. All-out, old-fashioned, "hard tack" winter is on it's way like an avalanche. Anywhere north or east/southeast of Denver, CO is going to get smashed and frozen all winter long. Craziness is coming. You are now sitting where I was circa Nov 2013, when the hand writing was on the wall for mby . Fantastic fun for a wx fanatic is all I can say! It's like you just got notified that you hold the winning Powerball lotto ticket I'm looking at a list of the (8) most favored analog years and here where I currently am typing this from in St. Joseph the snow totals of all those years ranges from 7 foot on the low end to 12 foot on the high end. So, yeah I think I'm in for more snowy travels, lol. And sooner than later per all indicators including the QBO Edit: I remember MDOT plows on 94 in October of '13 for instance. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 My first flakes for the '13-'14 season was Sept 27th. Wouldnt be surprised this season if it isnt too far after that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 You are now sitting where I was circa Nov 2013, when the hand writing was on the wall for mby . Fantastic fun for a wx fanatic is all I can say! It's like you just got notified that you hold the winning Powerball lotto ticket I'm looking at a list of the (8) most favored analog years and here where I currently am typing this from in St. Joseph the snow totals of all those years ranges from 7 foot on the low end to 12 foot on the high end. So, yeah I think I'm in for more snowy travels, lol. And sooner than later per all indicators including the QBO Edit: I remember MDOT plows on 94 in October of '13 for instance.Yeah. I think you're going to have snow very soon. And often. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 I have a feeling this December will make 2000 a joke! Awesome pattern unfolding right before our eyes.. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 1 - The Modoki El Nino Since making that write-up 3 days ago, my mind has been churning on some interesting potentials with the expected Modoki El Nino. After doing a little research I have to admit that my prior posting that weak El Ninos were rare birds wasn't accurate. I based my opinion on the Jan '78 Merge-bomb happening during a weak Nino. The rarity in that case wasn't the ENSO state - it was the perfect phasing of two streams and independent shortwave systems into a mega-monster on 'roids. I do still feel that the weak Nino alignment at least helped present conditions for the merger to happen, so there' s that. Also, through my studies I've found out that indeed 77-78 was not only a weak Nino but also a Modoki Nino like we are anticipating this upcoming winter. Tom has done such a great job outlining the state of the Pacific and it's development that I don't see any need to re-hash that in here. Besides, reading the ocean status seems to be his strong suit and is not mine, lol. Let's look at El Ninos in general. The 3 types. Traditional strong, Traditional Weak, and Modoki (of various strengths): Traditional strong Nino is a death-knell to winter lovers in the Lakes and Midwest with all the cold air bottled up north only dropping down to help the EC score big storms: A weaker Traditional Nino will allow a little more westward storm development and/or cold but is kind of a 50/50 proposition for our region with most of the action still favoring regions south and east of our sub: I don't find a similar "typical winter climo map" for the Modoki Nino so we'll have to take a closer look at what info we can find. A Modoki El Nino has several unique and interesting aspects that really help our region to at least "share in the fun-n-games". It doesn't completely shift all the action from the EC into the midwest, but it's by far the best of the (3) El Ninos for winter enthusiasts in our sub. Here's a couple comparison diagrams with Traditional vs Modoki Ninos. Modoki El Nino on top in the first image: Modoki El Nino is considered to have a threshold of +0.7 and latest forecasts are pointing in that direction.. With the core of the rising heat shifted west towards the Dateline, this causes the typical Nino effects to shift westward including pulling the HP domes and warm boring wx further west and allows some potent cold dumps to dominate from the Plains eastward. 2014-15 was a Modoki Nino and Feb of 2015 saw Marshall record an incredible -23F which may well be the modern day record for this location. Official minimum is -20F but is taken from Battle Creek whose data set is referenced for here. Temps were actually down to -30F south of here down in Ohio further away from the shadow of Lake Michigan. Also, back in winter of '94 much of Indiana had crazy cold temps during the worst of the cold waves. Some lows were even colder than the -30F mark in Ohio. Here's an example of the typical winter from 3 prior weak Ninos including 93-94 which is in this year's analog list: Jan 19th, 1994 In short, get ready to "chill" This "Modoki Effect" situation also causes a more favorable precipitation pattern than a traditional strong Nino with a northern moist zone as well as a southern moist zone: Interestingly, one of the most recent weak Modoki Nino winters (2014-15) featured some nice storms that seemed to follow the rules to a "T" The early Feb '15 Superbowl Sunday storm shown here as forecast from h48 And the early March '15 storm that basically turned most of KY into a parking lot (notice also the snow up in Michigan in the other favorable zone) When I can put together another post I plan to look at the "take-aways" for this coming winter and some other factors since no two seasons are ever duplicates. I've even taken a stab at snowfall map for the sub. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 1 - The Modoki El Nino Since making that write-up 3 days ago, my mind has been churning on some interesting potentials with the expected Modoki El Nino. After doing a little research I have to admit that my prior posting that weak El Ninos were rare birds wasn't accurate. I based my opinion on the Jan '78 Merge-bomb happening during a weak Nino. The rarity in that case wasn't the ENSO state - it was the perfect phasing of two streams and independent shortwave systems into a mega-monster on 'roids. I do still feel that the weak Nino alignment at least helped present conditions for the merger to happen, so there' s that. Also, through my studies I've found out that indeed 77-78 was not only a weak Nino but also a Modoki Nino like we are anticipating this upcoming winter. Tom has done such a great job outlining the state of the Pacific and it's development that I don't see any need to re-hash that in here. Besides, reading the ocean status seems to be his strong suit and is not mine, lol. Let's look at El Ninos in general. The 3 types. Traditional strong, Traditional Weak, and Modoki (of various strengths): Traditional strong Nino is a death-nell to winter lovers in the Lakes and Midwest with all the cold air bottled up north only dropping down to help the EC score big storms: ElNinoJetWintertimePattern_NOAA_SRH.png A weaker Traditional Nino will allow a little more westward storm development and/or cold but is kind of a 50/50 proposition for our region with most of the action still favoring regions south and east of our sub: Weak-El-Nino-map.jpg I don't find a similar "typical winter climo map" for the Modoki Nino so we'll have to take a closer look at what info we can find. A Modoki El Nino has several unique and interesting aspects that really help our region to at least "share in the fun-n-games". It doesn't completely shift all the action from the EC into the midwest, but it's by far the best of the (3) El Ninos for winter enthusiasts in our sub. Here's a couple comparison diagrams with Traditional vs Modoki Ninos. Modoki El Nino on top in the first image: Modoki vs reg El Nino.jpg EL NINO & MODOKI WIND FLOW.jpg Modoki El Nino is considered to have a threshold of +0.7 and latest forecasts are pointing in that direction.. 20180920 Modoki El Nino graph.png With the core of the rising heat shifted west towards the Dateline, this causes the typical Nino effects to shift westward including pulling the HP domes and warm boring wx further west and allows some potent cold dumps to dominate from the Plains eastward. 2014-15 was a Modoki Nino and Feb of 2015 saw Marshall record an incredible -23F which may well be the modern day record for this location. Official minimum is -20F but is taken from Battle Creek whose data set is referenced for here. Temps were actually down to -30F south of here down in Ohio further away from the shadow of Lake Michigan. Also, back in winter of '94 much of Indiana had crazy cold temps during the worst of the cold waves. Some lows were even colder than the -30F mark in Ohio. Here's an example of the typical winter from 3 prior weak Ninos including 93-94 which is in this year's analog list: 2018-19 analog temp departuress map.png Jan 19th, 1994 Jan 19 1994 WGN & Skilling record cold temps.JPG In short, get ready to "chill" This "Modoki Effect" situation also causes a more favorable precipitation pattern than a traditional strong Nino with a northern moist zone as well as a southern moist zone: US Rain ElNino Modoki.jpg Interestingly, one of the most recent weak Modoki Nino winters (2014-15) featured some nice storms that seemed to follow the rules to a "T" The early Feb '15 Superbowl Sunday storm shown here as forecast from h48 20150131-12z 48hr GFS Snowfall Map.gif And the early March '15 storm that basically turned most of KY into a parking lot (notice also the snow up in Michigan in the other favorable zone) 20150305 Snowstorm totals.png When I can put together another post I plan to look at the "take-aways" for this coming winter and some other factors since no two seasons are ever duplicates. I've even taken a stab at snowfall map for the sub. Great work Jaster! I dig the pic of Skilling from the good ol' days. Your explanation of the various Nino patterns was welcomed. As you stated above, a Modoki Nino plays the best situation for all of us on here, instead of a traditional Nino. I'm looking forward to seeing where the storm tracks evolve this Autumn season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 1 - The Modoki El Nino Since making that write-up 3 days ago, my mind has been churning on some interesting potentials with the expected Modoki El Nino. After doing a little research I have to admit that my prior posting that weak El Ninos were rare birds wasn't accurate. I based my opinion on the Jan '78 Merge-bomb happening during a weak Nino. The rarity in that case wasn't the ENSO state - it was the perfect phasing of two streams and independent shortwave systems into a mega-monster on 'roids. I do still feel that the weak Nino alignment at least helped present conditions for the merger to happen, so there' s that. Also, through my studies I've found out that indeed 77-78 was not only a weak Nino but also a Modoki Nino like we are anticipating this upcoming winter. Tom has done such a great job outlining the state of the Pacific and it's development that I don't see any need to re-hash that in here. Besides, reading the ocean status seems to be his strong suit and is not mine, lol. Let's look at El Ninos in general. The 3 types. Traditional strong, Traditional Weak, and Modoki (of various strengths): Traditional strong Nino is a death-knell to winter lovers in the Lakes and Midwest with all the cold air bottled up north only dropping down to help the EC score big storms: ElNinoJetWintertimePattern_NOAA_SRH.png A weaker Traditional Nino will allow a little more westward storm development and/or cold but is kind of a 50/50 proposition for our region with most of the action still favoring regions south and east of our sub: Weak-El-Nino-map.jpg I don't find a similar "typical winter climo map" for the Modoki Nino so we'll have to take a closer look at what info we can find. A Modoki El Nino has several unique and interesting aspects that really help our region to at least "share in the fun-n-games". It doesn't completely shift all the action from the EC into the midwest, but it's by far the best of the (3) El Ninos for winter enthusiasts in our sub. Here's a couple comparison diagrams with Traditional vs Modoki Ninos. Modoki El Nino on top in the first image: Modoki vs reg El Nino.jpg EL NINO & MODOKI WIND FLOW.jpg Modoki El Nino is considered to have a threshold of +0.7 and latest forecasts are pointing in that direction.. 20180920 Modoki El Nino graph.png With the core of the rising heat shifted west towards the Dateline, this causes the typical Nino effects to shift westward including pulling the HP domes and warm boring wx further west and allows some potent cold dumps to dominate from the Plains eastward. 2014-15 was a Modoki Nino and Feb of 2015 saw Marshall record an incredible -23F which may well be the modern day record for this location. Official minimum is -20F but is taken from Battle Creek whose data set is referenced for here. Temps were actually down to -30F south of here down in Ohio further away from the shadow of Lake Michigan. Also, back in winter of '94 much of Indiana had crazy cold temps during the worst of the cold waves. Some lows were even colder than the -30F mark in Ohio. Here's an example of the typical winter from 3 prior weak Ninos including 93-94 which is in this year's analog list: 2018-19 analog temp departuress map.png Jan 19th, 1994 Jan 19 1994 WGN & Skilling record cold temps.JPG In short, get ready to "chill" This "Modoki Effect" situation also causes a more favorable precipitation pattern than a traditional strong Nino with a northern moist zone as well as a southern moist zone: US Rain ElNino Modoki.jpg Interestingly, one of the most recent weak Modoki Nino winters (2014-15) featured some nice storms that seemed to follow the rules to a "T" The early Feb '15 Superbowl Sunday storm shown here as forecast from h48 20150131-12z 48hr GFS Snowfall Map.gif And the early March '15 storm that basically turned most of KY into a parking lot (notice also the snow up in Michigan in the other favorable zone) 20150305 Snowstorm totals.png When I can put together another post I plan to look at the "take-aways" for this coming winter and some other factors since no two seasons are ever duplicates. I've even taken a stab at snowfall map for the sub.Excellent job Jaster. Very very thorough on El Nino. Bravo. Well done. All we gotta do after thst is hope the AO/NAO domains do their part to flex on the east side and, well,...you get the idea. This must be that winter Game of Thrones hasn't shut up about. Oh it's coming alright. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 "Error 11223:Excitement level has temporarily exceeded objectivity level. Please allow system time to process all input and try again." That's what my brain feels like today. That's why I'm glad you wrote that Jaster. I keep imagining stuff like this every day with that recent storm here and the 3 weeks of storminess and cold before the 5 day warm spell. Just wow. I dont even have to describe my imagination. I know what this does and everyone else does too! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 23, 2018 Report Share Posted September 23, 2018 Its probably been posted already....but could not help show the beauty of this map. OKwx2k4...looking good there! The old Farmers Almanac guess is for a warm winter, we shall see which one is right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 23, 2018 Report Share Posted September 23, 2018 "Error 11223:Excitement level has temporarily exceeded objectivity level. Please allow system time to process all input and try again." That's what my brain feels like today. That's why I'm glad you wrote that Jaster. I keep imagining stuff like this every day with that recent storm here and the 3 weeks of storminess and cold before the 5 day warm spell. Just wow. I dont even have to describe my imagination. I know what this does and everyone else does too! CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_MONTHLY_E_4(2).png hilarious funny stuff 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 23, 2018 Report Share Posted September 23, 2018 While most of our area has seen much warmer then average temperatures this September. That has not been the case off to our NW this is from Paul Pastelok from Accuweather."Edmonton has been 8 degrees below normal for the month with 6 days so far with highs only in the 30s. While this part of the world is known for wild temperature swings, its still notable considering their average highs are in the low to mid-60s for two-thirds of September. Coincidently, some snow pack has started to develop north of the border" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 23, 2018 Report Share Posted September 23, 2018 It's still early but I do think we can absolutely rule out a strong Nino and probably even a moderate Nino (via the ONI). One concern I've had is falling into the tendency of a drier than average winter in the Lakes/Ohio Valley region, which is something that shows up in a number of weaker Nino events. That being said, that is not necessarily a good predictor of total snowfall since you can have above average snow in a drier than average winter, but I'd rather not roll the dice with a precip deficit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 23, 2018 Report Share Posted September 23, 2018 Winter 2018-19 ramblings part 2 - The analog years and temps The analog list I've decided to run with is prolly very much an overlap with everyone else's and is drawn from WxBell's as a starting point. I could've cut it back to include ONLY weak Modoki Ninos but I've left the other (3) in there in the event we never quite reach the threshold and to lend a more balanced approach. My (8) analog seasons for 2018-19: 1977-78, 1985-86, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2009-10, 2014-15 Bastardi's early maps were not based on only the Pioneer in-house model, but they share a core grouping. The Pioneer model looks "pioneer days" COLD in the Plains and eastward and even he admits it tends to be overly aggressive at times, but WOW if it was correct this time. There's of course another factor which strongly supports cold, and that would be our Solar Cycle status and rapid drop-off into levels perhaps not seen since the Dalton Minimum back in the first part of the 1800's While I'm on the cold train, let's see if we can ride the Neg QBO for all it's worth. Currently we've been very negative phase (-20+) and that's the phase which benefits us with cold during the winter months: Even with a range not as negative the results are dramatic. How negative will we be come mid-winter? I'm not an expert at tracking how rapidly the QBO propogates downward, but per this graph the positive (warm) phase has begun (red circled area) and presuming it continues as it normally would, the net results would favor cold on the first half of winter with a warmer finish. You can see the crazy "double pump" Ma Nature did with the +QBO in 16-17. Makes one wonder if she could do the same this winter to balance that out?? IF so, look out! But, that's truly in the wild card column. If anything belongs there, that surely does, lol It's worth noting that JB name drops 2013-14 as an example of the extreme scenario if things line-up wall to wall but he acknowledges that his core analog seasons all featured a warm month and/or bouncing temps, so the start to finish, run the table kind of temperature regime is certainly not a lock. Double-pumped neg QBO's aside, we're still looking robustly cold and here's a set of analog-based temp maps for the CONUS that I'm favoring. Notice the greatest departures are on the front end and warm up a bit as winter progresses: Dec '18 Jan '19 Feb '19 Mar '19 Winter 2018-19 Dec thru March Obviously, these are analog based and require the co-operation of certain tele-connection, or at least no counter-productive craziness from them. Time will tell, but my $$'s riding on cold as a pretty safe bet. In part 3 I'll share my thoughts on snowfall. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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