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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

February is ON the table for something possibly. 

Have to say that it feels pretty spring-like out there in the sun today.   Might also be noticing the slight increase in sun angle as well.     Quite the contrast from how this period looked a couple weeks ago when it seemed like winter might come roaring back just as the calendar turned to February.  

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Well if we get a decent to epic event in February then I will call the 2022/23 season a success! And if we do get measurable snowfall in February then we will have had (at my house) measurable snowfall each month from November-February! Yesterday’s snowfall was a stretch but I would definitely call it enough to be measurable. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Have to say that it feels pretty spring-like out there in the sun today.   Might also be noticing the slight increase in sun angle as well.     Quite the contrast from how it looked a couple weeks ago when it seemed like winter might come roaring back just as the calendar turned to February.  

Yeah, we will see. There’s definitely a chance something happens later this month though despite how it feels right meow. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, we will see. There’s definitely a chance something happens later this month though despite how it feels right meow. 

For sure... its probably likely that something more is coming.   

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim is ready for his vacation! I forgot how much he dislikes snow after January! 

I actually wish it was more nasty in the lead up to our trip.   It's too nice to make me really want to escape right now.   I find myself wandering around the yard in shorts enjoying the sun while it lasts and starting to get the itch to do spring yard work.  😀

20230201_132116.jpg

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d actually appreciate it if you do that so it’ll end up snowing plz. Randy take the plow off the tractor as well thanks. 

I did think about putting the mower deck back on and doing some mowing after that January heat! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Another sign that it's still winter... de-icer stripes on the road.   They did this on Sunday night in preparation for a freeze up but it just dried out quickly and was not really needed.   Usually the rain washes it away in 3 or 4 days but that has not happened yet. 

20230201_133644.jpg

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Next time I’ll try to be even more vague with my prediction for you :)

If we’re sticking with the very controversial 2006 analog, we had the big cold-*ss trough in early March. We’ve been on a bit of an accelerated timeline since the jet retraction started during the final 1/3 of January instead of early February…

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Looks like we had a fairly climo spring in 2006... which would be massive improvement over 2022.    Out here, we had about 35 more dry days in the spring of 2006 compared to the spring of 2022.     Climo would seem heavenly compared to the mess that was last spring and early summer.    

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually wish it was more nasty in the lead up to our trip.   It's too nice to make me really want to escape right now.   I find myself wandering around the yard in shorts enjoying the sun while it lasts and starting to get the itch to do spring yard work.  😀

20230201_132116.jpg

Same here.  I've walked my yard 3 times already, deciding where to plant new things etc.  If it ain't gonna snow, might as well be spring haha.

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If we’re sticking with the very controversial 2006 analog, we had the big cold-*ss trough in early March. We’ve been on a bit of an accelerated timeline since the jet retraction started during the final 1/3 of January instead of early February…

I’d take a February 2thousandsix redux. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d take a February 2thousandsix redux. 

That was pretty similar to what we just had.   I think we are ahead of schedule compared to 2006 so that puts the March 8-10 event into late February if we stay on course.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

That was pretty similar to what we just had.   I think we are ahead of schedule compared to 2006 so that puts the March 8-10 event into late February if we stay on course.

That event was more impressive than this one for sure. Believe we pulled off a 35/23 day with some snow with that one. We will see though…analogs are never exact every year’s unique. 

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Today’s spring fever talk is both very encouraging (for snow lovers) and very aggravating (for sensitive members). 

Analogous to wishful fall posts once we get to August?     That sensitive member would never do that right?

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That event was more impressive than this one for sure. Believe we pulled off a 35/23 day with some snow with that one. We will see though…analogs are never exact every year’s unique. 

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side of that event.  

That was much more impressive considering it was late February with sub 40 highs as opposed to this recent one barely pulling off sub 40 highs a month earlier with less snow too. 

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57F right now. Looks like we made it down to 27F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

That was much more impressive considering it was late February with sub 40 highs as opposed to this recent one barely pulling off sub 40 highs a month earlier with less snow too. 

Looked it up... I was wrong.    We had snow here on Valentines Day in 2006 which was before the arctic air arrived.  And it apparently it melted off before it got really cold because I distinctly remember a bare ground, sunshine, and a cold east wind.    We bottomed out at 35/17 on 2/18/06.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side of that event.  

I remember specifically being in the Centralia Burgerville drive thru when it was snowing during that backside “event.”

2006’s retraction/retrogression was definitely more durable. More of a double shot with the initial shortwave on the 14th being quite similar to what we had over the weekend at the 500mb level. Then of course the big backdoor penetration on the 17th.

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wut 

Microclimate baby! Double downslope from the Kalapuyas & Pisgah along the SE valley, which warms up first and quite proficiently.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Microclimate baby! Double downslope from the Kalapuyas & Pisgah along the SE valley, which warms up first and quite proficiently.

For a bit I thought you meant 47, but then I looked at the obs there and wow there are some warm temps right now.
image.thumb.png.88e8aeb570f737006b28bc7619a6251c.png

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Someone doesn't like people having a feeling of spring when enjoying the warmth of the sun and an increasing sun angle.  Its just straight up statistics for them.   In reality... most sunny days beginning in February feel like spring unless there is arctic air or strong wind involved.   Hopefully we get a few days in April and May that feel like summer.    Last year we had numerous days in April and May that were straight up winter-like.

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Just now, Doinko said:

For a bit I thought you meant 47, but then I looked at the obs there and wow there are some warm temps right now.
image.thumb.png.88e8aeb570f737006b28bc7619a6251c.png

Yeah, Alvadore on up to Junction City is a little cooler which gives the false impression that the city is several degrees cooler than it actually is.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

45/24 spread so far here today. It would actually be pretty awesome if we had a lot of temperatures in this range throughout the spring 🥲

Hopefully we see a lot of thunderstorms this spring/summer. The one on 7/1/2019 was very memorable, I remember a lot of lightning very nearby and then huge hail and heavy rain. Then another one that September had a tornado just a few miles away from here and then the next day brought nearly 2" of rain in an hour.

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully we see a lot of thunderstorms this spring/summer. The one on 7/1/2019 was very memorable, I remember a lot of lightning very nearby and then huge hail and heavy rain. Then another one that September had a tornado just a few miles away from here and then the next day brought nearly 2" of rain in an hour.

Agreed. That was an amazing warm season overall, with a ton of convection but almost no fires thanks to the lack of high end heat and long dry spells Then we went straight into chilly weather by late September.

2019 was one of the coolest and more dynamic years overall of the last couple decades. I think it had the coolest annual average for PDX since 2011 (which was their coldest year since 1985). Featured two top tier cold months which is a very rare feat these days (February and October).

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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The satellite makes it look like it would be warmer than it is... this looks like a pre-frontal, south wind set up with temps spiking in the warm sector ahead of an incoming system.   But the temps today are surprisingly cool given the fact that the upper levels are fairly warm.   Its probably related to a lack of mixing due to the ridge parked over us.  

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20230201.222617-over=map-bars=none.gif

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Agreed. That was an amazing warm season overall, with a ton of convection but almost no fires thanks to the lack of high end heat and long dry spells Then we went straight into chilly weather by late September.

2019 was one of the coolest and more dynamic years overall of the last couple decades. I think it had the coolest annual average for PDX since 2011 (which was their coldest year since 1985). Featured two top tier cold months which is a very rare feat these days (February and October).

2019 was one of my favorite weather years in general. There was some dynamic stuff at times in 2021 and 2022…but 2019 had some amazing cold, snow, thunderstorms and a summer where it actually rained at times!

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