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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t see why the PNW couldn’t experience an all-time airmass again, or at least come close. I think it will happen eventually. Many places in the Midwest and NE have broken cold records both at 850mb and the surface just in the last 10 years.

IL set a new state record low in Jan 2019, during one of the coldest air masses to ever strike the Midwest. The air mass last night was also the coldest ever observed for much of northern New England by 850mb/sounding data. The Feb 2015 airmass was the most anomalous ever to strike here, nearly tying the all time 850mb low but occurring in mid-Feb instead of mid-Jan.

Just need the correct blocking configuration to get the TPV fully into SW Canada. Even in Feb 1989 part of it was up in NE Canada. If 1989 had occurred with a downstream block as well as that upstream monster over the GOA/AK… 🥶 

1989 was hybrid though with a brutal, albeit weakening, behemoth making that direct connect trip from interior AK. It turned splitty pretty quickly with the massive AK/Yukon ridge, but the initial vort was about as ferocious as they come. That plus the surface pressures were off the charts.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I haven’t looked at models yet today and nobody’s talking about them. Are they that bad?

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If the 30 day SOI doesn't come down to zero or below over the next couple of months next winter will either be neutral or continued Nina according to past history.  This Nina doesn't want to end.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I haven’t looked at models yet today and nobody’s talking about them. Are they that bad?

Not bad.  People are just waiting for something to come into the closer range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I don’t see why the PNW couldn’t experience an all-time airmass again, or at least come close. I think it will happen eventually. Many places in the Midwest and NE have broken cold records both at 850mb and the surface just in the last 10 years.

IL set a new state record low in Jan 2019, during one of the coldest air masses to ever strike the Midwest. The air mass last night was also the coldest ever observed for much of northern New England by 850mb/sounding data. The Feb 2015 airmass was the most anomalous ever to strike here, nearly tying the all time 850mb low but occurring in mid-Feb instead of mid-Jan.

Just need the correct blocking configuration to get the TPV fully into SW Canada. Even in Feb 1989 part of it was up in NE Canada. If 1989 had occurred with a downstream block as well as that upstream monster over the GOA/AK… 🥶 

I've talked about this before, but the decline in Arctic air in the West (or at least the PNW) hasn't been a gradual thing - rather, it's like a switch was flipped in 1998/99.

Before then, Government Camp, OR averaged about one or two subzero lows per year. Now they average about one or two per decade.

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8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I've talked about this before, but the decline in Arctic air in the West (or at least the PNW) hasn't been a gradual thing - rather, it's like a switch was flipped in 1998/99.

Before then, Government Camp, OR averaged about one or two subzero lows per year. Now they average about one or two per decade.

You can pretty much pick any station in the PNW and it will show a gradual drop off in cold in recent decades. Its been going on since well before 1998-99. 0F is kind of an arbitrary number and Government camp is kind of an arbitrary spot.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Straws,  but control has a nice result

07BA11BF-5228-41D9-9519-537A0A60844D.png

The general GOA ridge look continues on the ensembles.  I like our chances.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like Boston hit -10 this morning, coldest temperature for them since January 1957.

Pretty shocking they haven't been colder than that.  Only equal to the Dec 2013 reading in EUG.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I don’t see why the PNW couldn’t experience an all-time airmass again, or at least come close. I think it will happen eventually. Many places in the Midwest and NE have broken cold records both at 850mb and the surface just in the last 10 years.

IL set a new state record low in Jan 2019, during one of the coldest air masses to ever strike the Midwest. The air mass last night was also the coldest ever observed for much of northern New England by 850mb/sounding data. The Feb 2015 airmass was the most anomalous ever to strike here, nearly tying the all time 850mb low but occurring in mid-Feb instead of mid-Jan.

Just need the correct blocking configuration to get the TPV fully into SW Canada. Even in Feb 1989 part of it was up in NE Canada. If 1989 had occurred with a downstream block as well as that upstream monster over the GOA/AK… 🥶 

DEN just came within 1 degree of its all-time low in December.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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EPS thru about day 12. Not terrible I suppose. I think the ridgy pattern mid month could shake the pattern up a little. Would be nice if the ridge trended a little weaker and more short lived like the ensembles are hinting at, though. Regardless I think deeper troughing at times could be in store for the latter half of the month.

2AB2DE3A-BCEB-4FA4-B41B-12D083178228.png

 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty shocking they haven't been colder than that.  Only equal to the Dec 2013 reading in EUG.

weather readings are taken at Logan Airport and its surrounded by water on 3 sides.  moderates them a little (especially when the bay isn't frozen like this year)

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Tied the observatory’s record low of -47°F from 1934!

Supposedly a -50°F was recorded in 1885, but that was a different type of thermometer, possibly less precise and sited differently. So it’s not official.

I'm betting it was probably a sixes mercury filled thermometer.  They are pretty accurate.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A couple of top tier analogs today.  1989 just before the March event and 1951 from late February.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

east coast pissed

 

 

Looks grim for them from here on out.  Pretty weird how they got a couple of top tier cold shots in an overall torch fest this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Well they just had record lows on Mount Washington. They shouldn’t complain 😆

It's really a quick hitter though.  And NYC hasn't had any snow yet this winter...at least they hadn't as of a couple days ago.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's really a quick hitter though.  And NYC hasn't had any snow yet this winter...at least they hadn't as of a couple days ago.

Yea we can’t feel bad for them. A few years ago they were shattering record left and right. Now finally seems like crappy winters catching up to them. 

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14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Brookings might hit 70˚F a week from tomorrow.

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-6160000.thumb.png.4fdaa7aca73363468abd51aea7735489.png

My brother lived in coos county and they had 4 straight 70+ highs last February. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My brother lived in coos county and they had 4 straight 70+ highs last February. 

70˚F is not even close to a record for Brookings, which has recorded 80+˚F temperatures in every month of the year except for December.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

70˚F is not even close to a record for Brookings, which has recorded 80+˚F temperatures in every month of the year except for December.

80 degrees sounds lovely right now. 20 degrees sounds lovely as well. 47 degrees is not lovely. 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

70˚F is not even close to a record for Brookings, which has recorded 80+˚F temperatures in every month of the year except for December.

Which makes the numbers that area put up in December 1990 so insane.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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