PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

First 60 watch at PDX has just been upgraded to a first 60 warning.

70°F here. First of many to come this month.

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Disturbing lack of snowpack in that pic.

Haha Jess very funny that was summer at the coast it was kinda misty you would have liked it are you rooting for the chiefs or eagles oh well I at least hope the commercials are good lol are you enjoying the sun spring fever baby pitchers and catchers report next week well gotta go

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

70°F here. First of many to come this month.

At least you’re lowland 38°N latitude on the East Coast and not the West Coast.

[Phishy Wx]

saw some perky buds on my birch tree today.

nowhere near opening but more swollen than say last week

has not reached 50 here yet, not since November 5th.

 

Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb to date

Temp is averaging -2.2 below normal at KGEG for that period even as 'shiity' as January was

 

[SnowWillarrive]

36 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Gotta wonder if this era for lowland snow will be looked at by people in the future like we look at the 1950s.

We will all move to Bozeman and Spokane. 

[SunAndSnow]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

First 60 watch at PDX has just been upgraded to a first 60 warning.

32/58 here so far today! I think we’ll get there. 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For whatever reason the late February window has been a pretty good one the past 12 years. 

2011

2018

2019

2022

Honorable Mention:

2017

2020

It's pretty crazy. I just spent way too much time doing a deep dive of the weather averages for the 13 year period of record on my weather station (since 2010) and February 23rd is the only day of the year I've failed to record a low above 40F. Even with a 30 day smoothed average for temperatures there's also a noticeable drop in average temperatures from February 1st to the middle of February with the average high and low dropping by more than a degree.

Also, if anyone is interested here are my stats from the past 12-13 years. The precipitation days may be a bit off because my Davis tends to record dew as 0.01", but otherwise it should be pretty accurate. My record low temperature is also actually 2F from December 2008, but I didn't start archiving data until 2010.

[T-Town]

I hope you guys are right about these costco pot pies because they’re massive. 

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

It's pretty crazy. I just spent way too much time doing a deep dive of the weather averages for the 13 year period of record on my weather station (since 2010) and February 23rd is the only day of the year I've failed to record a low above 40F. Even with a 30 day smoothed average for temperatures there's also a noticeable drop in average temperatures from February 1st to the middle of February with the average high and low dropping by more than a degree.

Also, if anyone is interested here are my stats from the past 12-13 years. The precipitation days may be a bit off because my Davis tends to record dew as 0.01", but otherwise it should be pretty accurate. My record low temperature is also actually 2F from December 2008, but I didn't start archiving data until 2010.

2f is pretty amazing for so close to the water. PDX didn't even drop below 20 degrees in December 2008, though the area did see ~18-25" of snow

What are your coldest max temps for each winter month?

[Skagit Weather]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

2f is pretty amazing for so close to the water. PDX didn't even drop below 20 degrees in December 2008, though the area did see ~18-25" of snow

What are your coldest max temps for each winter month?

I don't feel like adding them to the specific above table right now, but here they are from a different vertical table I created (slightly different color scheme). January is on the top and December is on the bottom.

[RentonHill]

Yo it’s frickin NOYCE out. Parker approved

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast and 46.2°F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing exciting so far on the 18z. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

Models teasing snow be like...

[Seattle]

Sunny and 55. Looks like it got up to 56 a bit earlier. Some other N Seattle locations are in the 58-60 range. Torch!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Feels like summer. I might need to break out the speedo. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Feels like summer. I might need to break out the speedo. 

big time summer vibes for sure. what is happening to our world lol

[Phil]

It’s very transient but this trade burst is off the charts.

[RentonHill]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nothing exciting so far on the 18z. 

feels like a typical model riding progression. GFS teases, teases, teases, EPS finally starts to bite and GFS bails

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

feels like a typical model riding progression. GFS teases, teases, teases, EPS finally starts to bite and GFS bails

My guess is the ensembles and 00z will look very very different. 

[Cold Snap]

Well the clouds burned off and it’s up to 57.3 now. Really gorgeous day though!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw this graphic in the Democracy is Dead newspaper. 

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah guidance is almost in universal agreement re: demise of the SPV. Any risk of vertical stacking w/ TPV in NE-Canada is basically nil, unlike earlier this month, which once looked solid but devolved once the models realized the SSW attempt was going to fail.

March madness.

[Phil]

New EPS weeklies projecting a much more coherent MJO/intraseasonal component in the tropical circulation. Possibly driven by the demise of the PV/acceleration of the BDC.

Also suggests the La Niña base state is/will be losing its grip on the system state evolution. Whether or not that actually happens is still TBD, obviously.

[Phil]

The EPS also suggests this might not be the final warming, though in previous cases it has overestimated the recovery when late in the season.

Either way this is the end of the strong winter phase of the SPV. And verbatim, this would be an impressive wind reversal.

[Front Ranger]

50 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yo it’s frickin NOYCE out. Parker approved

Aw, that was the name of my last dog.

[weatherfan2012]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

New EPS weeklies projecting a much more coherent MJO/intraseasonal component in the tropical circulation. Possibly driven by the demise of the PV/acceleration of the BDC.

Also suggests the La Niña base state is/will be losing its grip on the system state evolution. Whether or not that actually happens is still TBD, obviously.

This would be the classic winter where we get our biggest storm in March it just has that feel to it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This winter has reminded me some of 2017-18, probably the closest thing I can think of. Nina winter that was pretty benign overall. Had some cold in December that year, torched pretty hard in January and the first part of February, definitely harder than this winter. Just a dry year overall, had some wet weather in April if I recall, but then a record dry May. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Surprised no one said much about the EURO weeklies today. 

[Gradient Keeper]

See? I wasn't home for 18z and PRESTO, COLDO(GEFS). I was out in southeast Gresham and it feels like fake Spring today.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 9 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

Summer is coming!

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This winter has reminded me some of 2017-18, probably the closest thing I can think of. Nina winter that was pretty benign overall. Had some cold in December that year, torched pretty hard in January and the first part of February, definitely harder than this winter. Just a dry year overall, had some wet weather in April if I recall, but then a record dry May. 

Been more like 2001/02 or 2005/06 out this way. To date this is easily the worst winter I can remember in terms of snowfall.

[weatherfan2012]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Been more like 2001/02 or 2005/06 out this way. To date this is easily the worst winter I can remember in terms of snowfall.

As bad as it is at least the northeast is suffering through it as well and it not just our suffering,

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Summer is coming!

4

C

H

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Surprised no one said much about the EURO weeklies today. 

Looks like winter peaks in March again. Shocker.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I hope you guys are right about these costco pot pies because they’re massive. 

D**n 27 bucks?!?  they better use real butter for the crust at that price.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I hope you guys are right about these costco pot pies because they’re massive. 

INDOCTRINATION!

If you’re not feeding a ton of people they reheat to perfection even a few days later.

[TT-SEA]

44 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well the clouds burned off and it’s up to 57.3 now. Really gorgeous day though!

Technically clouds lifted north and didn't burn off... now in the warm sector ahead off the weak system offshore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I always feel like Costco is a bit of a rip off. Unpopular opinion. I know. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

64/28 at EUG today. Wowzers.