PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

Some impressive pictures of the Northern lights from yesterday circulating on the internet. Saw a cool one over Vista House on Twitter.  Perhaps they were already shared yesterday and I missed them. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks good for the Willamette Valley. 

Cold looks like a major bet now but the snow details will change 20 times between now and then as you know. but like i thought earlier eugene to salem will be ground zero. But the entire area from seattle to salem still has a ton of potential.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Yeah, I've noticed that.  Was just wondering if it had anything to do with the music preference discussion that was going on a couple of days ago....

Same thought crossed my mind. He seemed kinda offended in his last post. Love the guy but he’s probably better off sticking to model runs than social commentary. Hope he comes back.

[Kolk1604]

It's Euro Time!

[WeatherGeek2022]

14 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

One of these runs is gonna show a bigass low barreling down on us coming out of nowhere and it’s going to be SICK

I wish

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I wish

[LowerGarfield]

53 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t follow/use wx-apps all that much, but have noticed that TWC accuracy has tanked here over the last 1-2 years.

Daily forecasts on postfrontal/pressure rise days will often call for 10-20mph NW winds w/ no gusts, but in reality we end up with 45-55mph gusts.

And last summer their temperature forecasts beyond D5 were insanely cool biased..it was basically trolling.  All those mid/upper 80s ended up being low 90s.

Must be some serious cost-cutting going on behind the scenes, because they used to do well with this stuff. Any model that handles topography/BL mixing sufficiently can pick up on this stuff, but it whatevs.

WU is useful in in my area for snow chances, estimates of amounts, and wind/temps at a micro ultra local level I might glance AccuWeather in the summer, but they are usually comically bad esp in the winter. Weather.com is a bit better than AccuWeather.

 

I checked AccuWeather for fun last night and man where are they getting these numbers unless it's like an hour or two away and have a placeholder for EWA. Just laughable. It doesn't seem like either the GFS or Euro. They also love having snow at 40 degrees for some reason.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Cold looks like a major bet now but the snow details will change 20 times between now and then as you know. but like i thought earlier eugene to salem will be ground zero. But the entire area from seattle to salem still has a ton of potential.

All it takes is a little unforecasted low spinning up offshore and we’re in business. 

[Kolk1604]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I wish

He's right though. The big ones always come out of nowhere and never forecasted.

Low takes a different track or stalls. Surprises are the best anyway. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

All it takes is a little unforecasted low spinning up offshore and we’re in business. 

I generally expect some surface low development off the coast once 850s drop below -10 with N or NE. The way that trough digs in, we might just see that moisture pushed off to the SW, though.  

[RentonHill]

See? They’re out there…

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

All it takes is a little unforecasted low spinning up offshore and we’re in business. 

If it's cold enough, cyclogenesis can be our friend.

[Timmy]

32 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Yeah, I've noticed that.  Was just wondering if it had anything to do with the music preference discussion that was going on a couple of days ago....

He runs a popular wx fb group. He is pretty busy with that especially when extreme weather is immenent. Hundreds if not thousands of non weather nerds come alive and it gets busy over there

[Timmy]

29 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Same thought crossed my mind. He seemed kinda offended in his last post. Love the guy but he’s probably better off sticking to model runs than social commentary. Hope he comes back.

What a horrible thing to say. This mindset is what has killed civil discourse.  You were perma-banned, what gives you the moral high ground to make a judgment of who can post about which subjects ?

[Doinko]

Timing is faster on the Euro

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Timing is faster on the Euro

Finally in line with GFS.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The 25th is the day I was thinking of then. I can still remember how strange it was to have temps barely above freezing with bright sunshine, relatively high sun angles and light east wind.

2/25/11 wasn’t the outflow juggernaut that 2/17/06 was, but it also wasn’t exactly a light east wind day either. Here’s the surface maps from the two, both with the inverted surface trough signature, but obviously 2006 was steroidal. 
 

[Slushy Inch]

[TT-SEA]

Timing is faster on ECMWF but it still manages to give King County a nice burst of snow late Tuesday night. 

@Slushy Inch your plan might just work out and it starts snowing as soon as you land! 

 

[Doinko]

 

[Slushy Inch]

Real heavy stuff starts after I land! I could land in the start of a snow storm.

[Cold Snap]

[seattleweatherguy]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Real heavy stuff starts after I land! I could land in the start of a snow storm.

Perfect spot for me. The darker shade is over my area 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Timing is faster on ECMWF but it still manages to give King County a nice burst of snow late Tuesday night. 

@Slushy Inch your plan might just work out and it starts snowing as soon as you land! 

 

Yes I’m excited to see this!

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

underwhelming totals to see.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Wednesday... looks like there is the usual delay between the end of the precip and the arrival of the really cold/dry air.

[Doinko]

Looks marginally worse than the 00z but that's basically to be expected

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks marginally worse than the 00z but that's basically to be expected

Yeah, we’re starting to get into the inevitable watering down phase now with regard to the cold. Luckily we are starting from a high bar, so hopefully it will still end up a decent event.

[Slushy Inch]

It was the snowiest Euro run for WW so far so I won’t complain too much. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2/25/11 wasn’t the outflow juggernaut that 2/17/06 was, but it also wasn’t exactly a light east wind day either. Here’s the surface maps from the two, both with the inverted surface trough signature, but obviously 2006 was steroidal. 
 

It was light where I was (Orchards!) What was the peak wind gust at PDX that day? Regardless these are cool maps. I’m enjoying the more substantive posts from you lately.

[Cloud]

Euro actually shows the snow depth remains intact for Seattle despite the brief warmup after the snow. Looks good as we head into the deep freeze Thurs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO is a complete non event for the valley it appears. Tough breaks today. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Euro actually shows the snow depth remains intact for Seattle despite the brief warmup after the snow. Looks good as we head into the deep freeze Thurs. 

Yeah... all comes down to the placement of that band of snow late Tuesday night.    Places that pick up snow with that band should have snow on the ground through the cold period.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO is a complete non event for the valley it appears. Tough breaks today. 

Not sure everyone is whining…

[Mid Valley Duck]

I find it hard to believe that it'll be that dry with the trough and surface low orienting like that but who knows

[TT-SEA]

Much quicker 850mb temp moderation on the 12Z ECMWF late next week compared to previous runs.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was light where I was (Orchards!) What was the peak wind gust at PDX that day? Regardless these are cool maps. I’m enjoying the more substantive posts from you lately.

Looks like PDX gusted to around 30 mph and Hillsboro into the 20’s.

[Requiem]

17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

underwhelming totals to see.

At least you *get* some phantom snow this run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much no snow for NW Oregon now. Maybe a few dry 44/25 type days. 

[Deweydog]

We’ve lost the Andrew.