PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the EURO is a touch colder too. At least than the 00z. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps Wednesday and Thursday.

[ShawniganLake]

I think Andrew’s posting pace is currently higher than anything I’ve seen from Tim. Which is quite remarkable 

[JW8]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

I'll take .9" and hope for a potential overperform! Possible if the Euro has a slight warm bias. (Yes, I know, I'm talking myself in to this  )

[thickhog]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

It’d be interesting to see how much of this precip falls while it’s in the mid-30s across the metro area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think Andrew’s posting pace is currently higher than anything I’ve seen from Tim. Which is quite remarkable 

Speaks to a high level of engagement regarding the coming pattern. 

Also we do not have nearly the level of forum traffic we saw during the December "BLAST," which makes my prolific posting more noticeable. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Requiem]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

I mean I'm inclined to believe the EURO, ignoring it within 90 hours has historically been unwise. But man, it couldn't be more different from the mesos.

[FroYoBro]

The Euro is soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo rock solid right now.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Euro looking locked in. 

On this run, PDX is at 33F/24F at 7 PM on Wednesday and the bulk of the precip actually comes in after that point as the temp continues to drop. Good timing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Wednesday and Thursday.

Record min/max on Thursday is 39 at PDX set back in 2018, record at SLE is 38 from 1917. 

Record lows at PDX are in the mid-20s Wed-Friday. Could see some fall. SLE's records are a little tougher. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO's lows are ridiculous Friday and Saturday morning. I am guessing they are factoring snow cover? Or maybe just really good radiational cooling conditions with a cold airmass, given they are showing low-mid 20s for Seattle as well. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I mean I'm inclined to believe the EURO, ignoring it within 90 hours has historically been unwise. But man, it couldn't be more different from the mesos.

I don’t put much stock in the mesos outside of 48hrs. But we are getting close to that range

[Perturbed Member]

9 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I mean I'm inclined to believe the EURO, ignoring it within 90 hours has historically been unwise. But man, it couldn't be more different from the mesos.

The 12z NAM isn't exactly terrible for us.

[TacomaWx]

Pretty good chance there will be atleast a dusting in most spots in western WA. 6-37” for randy. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF show a significant snow event with the overrunning on Sunday morning.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF show a significant snow event with the overrunning on Sunday morning.

You’re such a jerk Tim. Only posting bad newz! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF show a significant snow event with the overrunning on Sunday morning.

It would not shock me. It's overrunning a cold surface airmass, and it has cold air aloft coming in behind it. It's probably just a matter of how strong the southerly surface gradients are, but its also worth noting this thing has been trending strongly in this direction. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

Record min/max on Thursday is 39 at PDX set back in 2018, record at SLE is 38 from 1917. 

Record lows at PDX are in the mid-20s Wed-Friday. Could see some fall. SLE's records are a little tougher. 

Too bad we aren’t threatening an older Min/Max that day. I always like to preserve our hard won post-2000 cold records.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF show a significant snow event with the overrunning on Sunday morning.

I believe it. And this is not a very warm overrunning, looks like a chilly deep trough. There is a reason EPS mean has still been 4 inches for WW even with Wednesday as a non event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Speaking of good news... The GEFS ensemble spaghetti chart looked pretty darn good. Operational is pretty close to the mean, in fact it is warmer than the mean during the middle of this week (Which is pretty common in the short range.), it is the warmest or one of the warmest members Saturday night, and around March 2nd. We lost a few more warm members in the long range and picked up a dogg or two. 

[OysterPrintout]

Euro and GRAF both showing 3" of snow still is pretty good. GRAF really nailed the last...well I guess you could technically call it an event here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Too bad we aren’t threatening an older Min/Max that day. I always like to preserve our hard won post-2000 cold records.

Interestingly the previous record stood for 66 years and was definitely some low hanging fruit at 41. 

[Slushy Inch]

Interesting. Back to freezing Monday morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I heard it doesn’t snow in Portland

[MossMan]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Interesting. Back to freezing Monday morning.

Someday we will have exciting weather like this again in January instead of very late February/March. 

[Slushy Inch]

Nice to run to run change.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I heard it doesn’t snow in Portland

We’ve had no lack of modeled snow this winter!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Interesting. Back to freezing Monday morning.

And Monday afternoon its still colder down south... probably a combination of more clouds and snow on the ground.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty good chance there will be atleast a dusting in most spots in western WA. 6-37” for randy. 

I pulled the plow out from the corner of the garage, need to adjust the chains a bit and check air pressures. Probably won’t need it but it makes me feel better anyway lol. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’ve had no lack of modeled snow this winter!

Touché 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’ve had no lack of modeled snow this winter!

It’s really starting to look like the worm has turned to the real deal down there. Even up here things are looking good with maybe some overrunning snow and maybe a little bit this week too. 

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF show a significant snow event with the overrunning on Sunday morning.

That’s a good track for the Vancouver area.  Rubus could do well  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is assuming there is still snow on the ground for all of western OR early next week.

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I pulled the plow out from the corner of the garage, need to adjust the chains a bit and check air pressures. Probably won’t need it but it makes me feel better anyway lol. 

Get your lawn mower and weed wacker warmed up. Eh

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s really starting to look like the worm has turned to the real deal down there. Even up here things are looking good with maybe some overrunning snow and maybe a little bit this week too. 

I agree. The Euro was rock hard and throbbing.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Speaking of good news... The GEFS ensemble spaghetti chart looked pretty darn good. Operational is pretty close to the mean, in fact it is warmer than the mean during the middle of this week (Which is pretty common in the short range.), it is the warmest or one of the warmest members Saturday night, and around March 2nd. We lost a few more warm members in the long range and picked up a dogg or two. 

A real nice improvement.

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Euro looking locked in. 

On this run, PDX is at 33F/24F at 7 PM on Wednesday and the bulk of the precip actually comes in after that point as the temp continues to drop. Good timing.

That’s an interesting profile at that point, although the Euro has shown all winter a tendency to overdo low level dry advection. Depending on precip rates at that point, I could see them being 34/30 by 7pm. If it’s mainly dry at that point with easterlies ramping up a bit, probably 36/28.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And Monday afternoon its still colder down south... probably a combination of more clouds and snow on the ground.

Those forecast highs at PDX and SLE are 1 degree warmer than the record min/max's for the day, which were set in 2019. 

[Slushy Inch]

More.

[TacomaWx]

Despite the best of this event likely being centered in Oregon…it’s probably going to be pretty decent up here in western WA too. Over performance this week and snow Sunday is what I’m thinking. long range looking interesting as well.