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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is assuming there is still snow on the ground for all of western OR early next week.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_depth-7564000.png

I would still doubt that would be enough to have much impact on the temps. Especially with a mixed airmass. I think the cool highs are more a feature of the cool upper level airmass, clouds, and precip. 

 

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I agree. The Euro was rock hard and throbbing.

Taking it to the next level!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Highs get back into the low-mid 40s for the valley next Tuesday, low 40s for the Puget Sound area, still about 10 degrees below normal, and then it looks like some very cold lows Wednesday. 

sfct-imp.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well I'm staring down the barrel of a possibly record-breaking, multi-day snowstorm. GFS shows almost 30 inches here by Friday while the Euro is probably more "realistic" at 14 inches and the GEM is in-between the two at around 17 inches.

Currently under a Winter Storm Watch for 10-16 inches of snow with gusts up to 50 mph. Blizzard conditions and 2 inch/hr rates likely Wednesday night. By Friday we should be within the top-five snowiest winters through this point of the season and will have probably broken a top-five all time snowiest two days of February record.

Wish I could be tracking and experiencing this storm with you all but at least it looks like PDX folks will have a shot at some white gold themselves. Wish you guys the best of luck!

12z gfs mean for FB.png

Winter is just getting started. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Highs get back into the low-mid 40s for the valley next Tuesday, low 40s for the Puget Sound area, still about 10 degrees below normal, and then it looks like some very cold lows Wednesday. 

sfct-imp.us_nw.png

Sort of close to normal for Seattle by next Wednesday... but snow cover still keeping temps cooler down there.    Could be a week or more with snow on the ground in the WV.   Amazing.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7715200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Speaks to a high level of engagement regarding the coming pattern. 

Also we do not have nearly the level of forum traffic we saw during the December "BLAST," which makes my prolific posting more noticeable. 

Now that was a BLAST.  COLOSSAL EVENT!

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of close to normal for Seattle by next Wednesday... but snow cover still keeping temps cooler down there.    Could be a week or more with snow on the ground in the WV.   Amazing.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7715200.png

Yeah, I think given clear(ish) skies, the cool airmass, WV temps (And PDX) would be in the 45-48 range. Pretty similar to the sound, which is still about 5-8 degrees below normal for this time of year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It would not shock me. It's overrunning a cold surface airmass, and it has cold air aloft coming in behind it. It's probably just a matter of how strong the southerly surface gradients are, but its also worth noting this thing has been trending strongly in this direction. 

Southerly gradients can work really well for MBY in such situations. Banks the cold air against the Coast Mountains while causing upsloping (very similar to how easterly flow can enhance snowfall in the Hood Canal area).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

We had a break for most of Jan. I guess we did get a little chilly though.

More like January tried to break us. Jim almost packed his pot pies, tin foil hats and Tandy 5000 in the station wagon and departed for snowier pastures.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

January was exhausting. What a terrible weather month that was. 🤢🤮

It sucked except for the end.  Pretty much expected in recent years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

More like January tried to break us. Jim almost packed his pot pies, tin foil hats and Tandy 5000 in the station wagon and departed for snowier pastures.

Live view from the Wizard! 

725E16AB-17DE-4369-8947-E5BF96D3B164.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looking at my #'s we are sitting at a monthly mean of 37.3 through yesterday. Projecting through the rest of the month, I went fairly conservative and still came up with 35.3, which isn't close to 2019, 1989, 1956, but looks like it would place 5th in our period of record just behind 1990 (And just ahead of 1948 and 1949), very possible we could beat 1990. Not a chance we break into the top 3. If we do make top 10 it would be our 2nd top 5 cold month since November. 

Looking ahead to March, 1951 (37.4) and 2012 (37.6) are the two big dogs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

You are way behind... we already discussed this! 

I figured.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The next cold trough is on its way at the end of the EURO. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

San Jose has only reached 30 degrees in March one time in the last 117 years, in 1966. 

ecmwf-deterministic-california-t2m_f-7326400.png

chart (1).jpeg

I would absolutely hate that climate.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Little more WW snow on EPS. Also first OP run with wrap around moisture Wednesday morning.image.thumb.png.994eb66e56406d54399da08b09023370.pngimage.thumb.png.9ea960cbb8e481a0d3076b9119c7c1c1.pngimage.thumb.png.07498b15efe674a731ebe67cdd1d0ef2.png

That wrap around stuff is the wild card.  I ended up with 1.3" of that last Feb and absolutely nothing was forecast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 consecutive sub freezing mins on the ECMWF for SEA.  Very nice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Little more WW snow on EPS. Also, I believe it was the first OP run with wrap around moisture Wednesday morning.image.thumb.png.994eb66e56406d54399da08b09023370.pngimage.thumb.png.9ea960cbb8e481a0d3076b9119c7c1c1.pngimage.thumb.png.07498b15efe674a731ebe67cdd1d0ef2.png

The WRF is picking this up…. Who knows tho😂. It’s the boomer model😂

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would absolutely hate that climate.

We have relatives in CA and lots of relatives in MN and WI and they all pretty much say they would absolutely hate this climate.    But I think I like our climate significantly more than you.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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