PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[AlTahoe]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would absolutely hate that climate.

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a good weekend.

 

Props to the GFS honestly.

[Meatyorologist]

38 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A real nice improvement.

Night and day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

Get on the windward side of those mountains and lots of places average 50–90"/year.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Don’t you absolutely hate this one?

Sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cold rain by that time in Seattle.

Probably snow at some point earlier, but seems to warm up pretty quickly after the precip arrives.

Precip is pretty much done by that point.  Most of it falls with 925mb temps in the -2 to -3 range.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

It would be insanely boring. 

I think where you're at would be too much for me.  My ideal climate would be colder than your area, but more like 40 inches of snow average a year.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Looks exactly like some of our recent summer ensemble charts, except upside down:

Wow, close to -5 by the end.

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Looks exactly like some of our recent summer ensemble charts, except upside down:

SSWs favor the East though!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow, still close to -5 by the end.

Yeah and that’s Eugene, so I’m sure Seattle is a big cooler. 

[Deweydog]

For that small handful of snow-with-cold fans out there, I took a look at some past examples of these coastal sliders which are stacked at or near the center of the ULL. Pretty consistent with modeling as the best dynamics align parallel or just south of the low. 2/95 illustrates this pretty well…

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah and that’s Eugene, so I’m sure Seattle is a big cooler. 

-6

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

SSWs favor the East though!!!

I heard a few days ago that the entire SSW thing is bupkis. 

[Slushy Inch]

FEB is the new JAN, and March, is the new FEB I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For that small handful of snow-with-cold fans out there, I took a look at some past examples of these coastal sliders which are stacked at or near the center of the ULL. Pretty consistent with modeling as the best dynamics align parallel or just south of the low. 2/95 illustrates this pretty well…

 

Hmmmm 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Gusts of 35 mph here in Belltown/Downtown Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

FEB is the new JAN, and March, is the new FEB.

Buckle up

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pleasant noon time. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn’t be shocked if this thing over performs. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Hmm, a 30/27 day here with 2" of snow. Very close to what's modeled for this Wed/Thurs. Except that in 1995, it torched up to 72º a few days later.

That was a fun event. I lived in Sheridan then and had like 10".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Coldest temps are in Nevada. Must be a torchy run. 

[Gummy]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Precip is pretty much done by that point.  Most of it falls with 925mb temps in the -2 to -3 range.

Yea, the GFS and Euro are similar with the surface details, but the Euro is much colder at the 850 and 925 levels. It will be interesting to see which model is correct.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Coldest temps are in Nevada. Must be a torchy run. 

SW stays cold the entire time. That BC cold slides down nicely from the north the last third of the run. High confidence. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Snowiest EPS too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro looks snowy! WOW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gummy said:

Yea, the GFS and Euro are similar with the surface details, but the Euro is much colder at the 850 and 925 levels. It will be interesting to see which model is correct.

GFS is an outlier on its ensemble suite around that time… fwiw 

[RentonHill]

Who's on the NAM???

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if this thing over performs. 

I'm very optimistic for the northern Willamette Valley in particular. Portland/Salem's time to shine!

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro looks snowy! WOW

Looks like a record breaking event for the coastlines from BC to California 

[RentonHill]

Up to 50 at our place in twisp. Some decent meltage. I can see the top of the trailer hitch finally. 

[MossMan]

A friend that lives in Chelan is reporting 61 degrees! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how much the valley will be shadowed the next couple of days. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

A friend that lives in Chelan is reporting 61 degrees! 

Sun angles over there mean BUSINESS

[MWG]

Brrrr  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly, when looking at the long range GEFS, things go more zonal as we get into mid March. 

[RCola]

Initial impression is this will be a memorable week for OR and later in the week for BC. I'd be thrilled if the weekend event trends south and colder, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Seattle area is skunked twice this week. That's been the theme of the winter.

Ensembles look promising for the central sound at 300 hours out, but then again, they looked promising when this week was 300 hours out.

Really happy for the folks in OR, though. They deserve it! The folks in BC, however, really don't need more snow. Send it south.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm very optimistic for the northern Willamette Valley in particular. Portland/Salem's time to shine!

They've been paying off that debt for a while. They're fuckkin' due bigly.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, RCola said:

Initial impression is this will be a memorable week for OR and later in the week for BC. I'd be thrilled if the weekend event trends south and colder, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Seattle area is skunked twice this week. That's been the theme of the winter.

Ensembles look promising for the central sound at 300 hours out, but then again, they looked promising when this week was 300 hours out.

Really happy for the folks in OR, though. They deserve it! The folks in BC, however, really don't need more snow. Send it south.

Issa mood fr

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interestingly, when looking at the long range GEFS, things go more zonal as we get into mid March. 

That typically happens in the extreme long range.