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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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GEFS is gradually getting colder for early March.  850s are now shown to be persistently in the -6 to -7 range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In that case, 3–6" sounds like a good guess for what you get. NWS is definitely dropping the ball by failing to get a warning out.

Par for the course.

I literally can't remember any high impact snow events that they did all that well with. Maybe 12/20/2008? But then they dropped the ball on the back bent occlusion stuff that swung through right after that.

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6 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Picking up on the arctic front like the WRF did maybe.

There's a lot going on that could produce surprise snowfall.  Convergence / Arctic front tonight and then return flow moisture tomorrow morning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

like south king county or metro?

It shows a bullseye around Renton of all places.  Could be pretty much anywhere though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking at the possible weekend snow the models have gotten pretty decent with it today.  Pretty exciting.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its currently 43 at BLI and snowing at PAE.    Interesting.

Going to be interesting radar tonight, looks like some moisture might sneak up over the cascades into the sound as well if you watch the sat loop. Some of our cold is coming from the top down also not just the fraser.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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15 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

What are your thoughts on how tomorrow unfolds?

 

Honestly feels pretty good to me and I'm on board for a widespread 3-6" around the whole metro area with some 6-8" spots likely to the south and far west. Still believe the models may be overdoing the speed at which the column mixes out tomorrow evening as the low begins to deepen. I think there is potential for a lot more explosive lift and a juicy dendritic growth layer there, with a strongish (997mb) low spinning in the sweet spot and moderately but not crazy deep offshore flow advecting into it.

 

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

00z HRRR looks good and fairly aligned with my expectations. Several steady, slow-moving bands spinning through the metro area tomorrow evening and overnight as the low gets cranking.

00zhrrr.gif

Nice 4" here on the HRRR. Happy we're finally seeing an event where I'm not on the edge like 2/2021 or in the middle of the coast range rain shadow like 12/2021

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11 minutes ago, Dave said:

Bummer that the WWA is for 500' and above while I live at 400'. 😪 At least Tiger should do ok. There's always next winter to be disappointed in. 

I'm actually pretty hungry for weenies.

The 100ft won't change anything.  If so then the tip of the tallest tree in your neighborhood will be covered with snow. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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