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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

This can't be ignored at this point I don't think. Every model but the NAM suite is showing Washington County as a prime location for semi-convective enhancement with some very very heavy snow accompanying it. This also isn't April-- it'll be cold and conducive for snow to stick. East and southeast metro in the city proper might not be the winners on this one.

Would love to know what discussions are going on at the Portland NWS office tonight. Maybe they’re out getting tanked.

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Getting pretty excited now. The GRAF which Mark Nelsen seems to like a lot is showing 8" here and it nailed the Valentine's day snow, and the other models show as much too. We had 13" on 1/10/17 too

Doinko, 8" is only the beginning of your potential tomorrow night.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I am ready to eat crow on this one, but I'm exceedingly bullish on this. Put it on the record. Sitting in my bedroom 200 miles away I am vicariously excited. This is the real deal. Yeah, the real deal real deal. And all who live in the area, or just like to see extreme weather events play out in real time, should be paying close attention to radar and satellite over the following 36 hours.

I’m excited for Portland as well! This definitely should at least be a poor man’s 1/10/17. Though I have the feeling it won’t be a poor man’s version of it.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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18Z EURO was encouraging but we'll see what the 00Z says. I place a lot of trust in that model...

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

lol the WRF
or_snowacc.57.0000.gif

This was the WRF on 1/10/17
wrf_snow_4pmwed.gif

Literal garbage doodoo trash

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

I’m in the purple. Should I let myself be excited yet?

I think so... all signs point to something significant down there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm just astonished at how anemic these mesoscale models are for the PDX area. This is a textbook setup for an overperformer on steroids. Someone not an hour ago brought up 1/10/2017 as an analog. That is fair and accurate.

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

Not only a similar vibe, but a very similar physical configuration of the atmosphere.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Us PDX lowlander plebs have spoken of the prophecy for years now, the second coming of the holy 1/10/2017. 

This seriously has a very similar vibe to it though. 

Would be one hell of a way to break the streak of suckage south of OLM. Hopefully snow coverage across the area ends up being more widespread than shown on some of the models. 

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If I lived in Salem I’d be moving to

iowa. Nowhere inland and north of Red Bluff has been hosed more since January 7, 2017.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BB8A0EBB-4A0D-4787-912D-78A60823F7DF.jpeg

57B98B34-2FE2-4DE3-9568-5B8ED8893182.jpeg

Back to the Puget Sound, today was a wonderful day for skygazing off the top floor. Working in an Amazon building has its perks. Driving home today around 7pm, there was a burst of heavy rain/snow mix at sea level in the Interbay neighborhood within the CZ.

Most models, including (especially) the Euro, are insistent on some wraparound snowfall in the area later tonight. Given how saturated this airmass is, any lift will cause precipitation.

Also @RentonHill dawg there is no way you work more than like two blocks away from me. Looking at your posts earlier I recognized that vantage point like the palm of my hand. Westlake right?

I’m at fifth and marion…so close 😊

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