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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I’m at fifth and marion…so close 😊

6th/Lenora ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Had about .10 from 3pm-5:30pm when I checked and prepared the board for overnight. We had a good cell come through around 7 or so, it was enough to bring the snowplow out on the hwy out front. The shoulder lane was covered in snow as was a good portion of the sidewalk, but shortly after the plow came through, the snow stopped and melted on the shoulder and hanging in there on the walk. Have a nice layer on the grass, but will wait to measure again til tomorrow morning, I'm about 33F and a half.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife just declared this whole thing a bust.

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My wife is mad at me for the bust up here. I told her last week that we would have a big snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning…I was WAY off and she is not letting me forget. 

So far this has been a non event 

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  • Rain 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow
sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

Another great run! Similar to what the 00z RGEM/GEM showed with a strong deformation band signal over PDX Metro. I’m getting 1/10/17 vibes right now where the forecast was up to a few inches but everything came together perfectly and we got hammered.

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35 minutes ago, SunAndSnow said:

I’m in the purple. Should I let myself be excited yet?

Not as excited as I am!  I'm in the white and since snow is white that means I'm getting TONS of snow!!

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4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Between the chorus of 1-10-17 vibes and people saying they are gonna fly out here for snow I'm gritting my teeth for this euro run.

Tonight's Euro run will be spectacular. The inevitable bust will only become clear the moment my plane lands in Portland and when people start telling the normies in their lives about 1/10/17 tomorrow.

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They're going to make the next shift think about it lol

 

We also seriously mulled expanding the Winter Wx Advisory northward
into the Portland metro area, as latest models have been trending a
little farther north and slower with the 997 mb presently moving
onshore near Cape Shoalwater. 00z HREF valley snow totals for areas
south of Wilsonville are getting close to warning criteria, with HREF
mean now showing a solid 2 to 4 inches and 90th percentile values
getting up near 6 inches. But the 00z HREF remains stingy for snow
accumulations around the PDX metro area and points north, which makes
sense as the air will become very dry as NE flow develops north and
east of Portland. Further complicating things is the potential for
enhanced low-level frontogenesis and associated banding of snow Wed
night as arctic air pushes up against the maritime polar air mass in
place. This may develop near or south of Portland, or may not develop
at all. Given all this uncertainty, we will not make any changes for
the Portland metro, and will allow the midnight shift to take a
longer look at 00z models.
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Southern Oregon Coast under a winter storm warning. 2-4” for Reedsport, Coos Bay, Brookings. Brookings was near 80 a few days ago. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Between the chorus of 1-10-17 vibes and people saying they are gonna fly out here for snow I'm gritting my teeth for this euro run.

I’m flying an experimental glider to Brookings to see snow on the south coast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sucks for folks west of I 5 south f wilsonville. Would be a real bummer. @Jakewestsalem

@Mid Valley Duck

Not super nervous yet. I find it interesting the high res models take things much further south while the global models take things far to the north. 

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Getting some small snowflakes here now, I would have expected it to be drizzle with the temperature still at 37F but the dewpoint is 30F so I guess that's keeping it as snow to the surface. 

Different story up in Nanaimo, could be 10" up there by Thursday:

641.jpg

Yet, about 40 miles to the north of there it's completely dry. Looks like a pretty sharp snow gradient in between:

948.jpg

Just to the South Ladysmith is getting hammered:

430.jpg

Still pretty sloppy to the south of there though, this is at 1000ft asl near Shawnigan:

272.jpg

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Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Getting some small snowflakes here now, I would have expected it to be drizzle with the temperature still at 37F but the dewpoint is 30F so I guess that's keeping it as snow to the surface. 

Different story up in Nanaimo, could be 10" up there by Thursday:

641.jpg

Yet, about 40 miles to the north of there it's completely dry. Looks like a pretty sharp snow gradient in between:

948.jpg

Just to the South Ladysmith is getting hammered:

430.jpg

Still pretty sloppy to the south of there though, this is at 1000ft asl near Shawnigan:

272.jpg

Didn't Nanaimo get nailed in December too?

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... Portland is going to great!    ECMWF on board and all set.

Euro is now randomly showing a ton of snow before even the main event starts. Nothing like this on previous runs. Temps are a bit marginal but then crash and the real storm starts

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