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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows snow on the ground around Portland until the last day of the run.    That would be an incredible stretch for so late in the season.

Seems pretty unlikely.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Good to see. 

E73BEEC6-6AE6-4074-BF07-385D70BD776A.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Models are showing 1.5 to 3.5 for a pretty good part of the area.  Everyone keeps trying to downplay the weekend event for Seattle.

They are and I don't know why. It's also not a transition event,  there's more snow coming soon after. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe he'll change his mind after the latest runs

This is what Mark used to justify his T-1 tonight and T-3 tomorrow forecast.

He discounted the GEM as crazy, used some older ECMWF run and threw in the WRF. 

Mark went 1-4 inch for 1/10/2017 and busted badly, hopefully this will fail similarly. 

image.thumb.png.9f25b97cfa6db33d8231c7fbf8dafb44.png

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is what Mark used to justify his T-1 tonight and T-3 tomorrow forecast.

He discounted the GEM as crazy, used some older ECMWF run and threw in the WRF. 

Mark went 1-4 inch for 1/10/2017 and busted badly, hopefully this will fail similarly. 

image.thumb.png.9f25b97cfa6db33d8231c7fbf8dafb44.png

I have a feeling it'll change tomorrow-- best not to make such a drastic change so late in the day and leave it for the following.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is what Mark used to justify his T-1 tonight and T-3 tomorrow forecast.

He discounted the GEM as crazy, used some older ECMWF run and threw in the WRF. 

Mark went 1-4 inch for 1/10/2017 and busted badly, hopefully this will fail similarly. 

image.thumb.png.9f25b97cfa6db33d8231c7fbf8dafb44.png

Looks like it's the same run, just ending at 4 am. Lot falls after

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Not one to criticize any mets as they know better than any of us-- but the ride or die attitude some of them have in regards to the WRF model is occasionally problematic. Particularly considering how... mediocre the model has historically been as far as most big snow events. 

 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Good catch, but that makes no sense to compare to the GEM output which includes everything into Thursday afternoon. 

Maybe he wanted to show the extreme possibilities or something. Agreed, not sure why he didn't use the full Euro run.

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows snow on the ground around Portland until the last day of the run.    That would be an incredible stretch for so late in the season.

Record breaking for sure. Even our great late season big-leaguers of the 19th and 20th century didn't generally have more than 3-4 days of snowcover after February 20.

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Kinda at a loss for what to expect-- I'm curious as to what the models latched onto the last 12 hours or so. What exactly changed? A more convective element to the system? Better low placement?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Langley Hill radar looks good

 

KLGX_loop.gif

If you believe the 00z Euro, it will start snowing here in the next hour and it will pretty much continue with varying intensity all the way until Thursday AM. 

I'm sure it will be too warm to stick mid AM tomorrow to late afternoon and there will be breaks in precip but the next 36-40 hours should be active especially for WA county. 

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14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are some big late season snowstorms for PDX in the past?

As far as I know, March had big events with 6"+  around parts of the metro area in 1989 (mostly eastside), 1960, 1956 (mostly westside), 1951, 1906, 1874, 1870, and I think in 1850 as well. So not ever super common.

The end of February has historically been pretty quiet on that front and had biggish snow events in 2018, 1971, 1962, 1917, 1882, and I think in 1852, but never anything with really widespread 6"+ accumulations that I can find. Even back to the 1850s. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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@MWGand @TigerWoodsLibidoi can't sleep yet so give me a snow update or how it's looking so far?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Snowing and sticking at the moment.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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