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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty good bet that the dynamic stuff this afternoon and evening will extend well into Clark County.

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

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Just now, Timmy said:

I don’t expect this to verify but this pattern above 1000’ is glorious.  Was it March 2011 or 12 that did something like this?

D654186D-9790-48D8-8227-1FE6DD5BCB24.png

Probably 700-1000ft during the day and around 500ft at night or less away from water. Good pattern for some places for sure.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More so for Andrew.   Not as impressive up here.   Maybe 3-4 inches Sunday morning but then we get a few hours of a roaring SW wind and then the focus of the precip is from Oregon southward early next week again.   

Yeah, but you should have plenty of chances next week

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3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

Really hoping for a decent metro wide event with a focus on the south and west metro. You guys are due.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

Tigard should do really well once we shift to a more frontal dynamic.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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It’s crazy how scattered the snow showers are. There’s nothing on the ground at Woodinville-duvall road at the west snoqualmie intersection but the Avondale intersection has quite a bit.

F307F570-17F5-4793-8777-D4A3914E4893.jpeg

A91C8CCA-8C00-4E1E-A92D-1CD8958CB254.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Really hoping for a decent metro wide event with a focus on the south and west metro. You guys are due.

The temps are concerning but i'm hoping that changes with these heavy bands down there. I want the entire fuking area to get hit from Eugene to Seattle.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The temps are concerning but i'm hoping that changes with these heavy bands down there. I want the entire fuking area to get hit from Eugene to Seattle.

Winds are still from the south here so it’s not too surprising that temps are still marginal. It will easily be cold enough later today though. Not too worried about the temps for the main show here, it’s all about where the moisture sets up.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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19 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So no one is going to mention that the Canadian RDPS just spit out 3 ******* FEET of snow in Portland? Shows the temps dropping below freezing by noon and then absolutely nukes the city.

hrdps-portland-total_snow_kuchera-7222000.png

That bullseye is almost right over me. I'm really liking our chances

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15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Honestly starting to get worried I’ll be too far south tonight based on some of the most recent runs this morning. Clark County always owns this area for snow events anyways. 
 

Give me the weenies. 

I think there'll be plenty to go around. The arctic air advecting into the low is a great mechanism for widespread lift everywhere, and this isn't one of those arctic airmasses that stops at Olympia.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

I think there'll be plenty to go around. The arctic air advecting into the low is a great mechanism for widespread lift everywhere, and this isn't one of those arctic airmasses that stops at Olympia.

The GRAF increased totals to 10" for my area. Dumping snow already. Could be an amazing snowstorm

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6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Posting the wider map of that insane RDPS run. Other items of note: The South Sound scores on it, and Coos Bay also gets 2-3ft, lol.

This would be the largest single snowfall in Portland history if it actually happened, right?

hrdps-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7236400.png

December 20-22, 1892 is the largest official storm of record in Portland. About 27" in 48 hours. 

Some pre-1870s storms like January 1857 and January 1866 may have been a bit larger but no official records exist from the city then.

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Just now, thickhog said:

Portland NWS still thinks nothing noteworthy is happening later tonight. Guess we’ll see.

Can you imagine if 2-3ft fell across the metro after the NWS forecast literally 0"? I can't even imagine the chaos that would occur in the city of the RDPS scenario actually occurred tonight. No one in Portland who isn't a weather nerd is expecting anything significant.

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C'mon 850 ft put in your magic! 

Also good morning folks.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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On the opposite end of the weather spectrum... my sister and her husband are in London and Dublin this week and she said its lush green and there are flowers blooming everywhere.    Maybe that will be next spring here with a Nino in place.  😍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Portland NWS still thinks nothing noteworthy is happening later tonight. Guess we’ll see.

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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After seeing the model runs this morning especially the HRDPS, it’s going to be really fun seeing how this event goes for the Portland area. Though I can’t imagine the HRDPS being right I wouldn’t rule out some places getting over a foot.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not been following the models super-closely, so I'm not sure about how plausible those 10"+ scenarios are, but that just doesn’t make sense. Model signals are very strong: PDX is almost certain to get at least a few inches out of this event. Coupled with a flash freeze, that ensures an impactful snowstorm.

NWS is gonna end up with egg on their face if they don’t issue a warning.

Yeah... I think every model is showing significant snow now.   And its already been snowing in parts of the Portland area.   Bad idea to ignore this one.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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