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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to say, just model noise I suppose. I think the west side will see plenty of enhancement overnight as the offshore flow slowly deepens and meaningful advection kicks in. Even 24 hours from now dynamics are still pretty decent.

Seems like we're being a bit shadowed at the moment. Do you think it'll even out and we'll do well later on? Most models show it but the last few years have been pretty disappointing here but this time it seems like a decent chance for us doing okay.

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Just now, MillCreekMike said:

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

Yea, that is really common for them. Happens usually at least once per La Nina winter.

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Just now, MillCreekMike said:

That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

I knew it was going to be a fun drive up north when I looked at the radar and saw the bands setting up north of I-90 along 405. Some of the models hinted at it but it was a sporadic signal at best…and some spots did really well this morning better than anything shown. Models aren’t gospel all the time. 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I knew it was going to be a fun drive up north when I looked at the radar and saw the bands setting up north of I-90 along 405. Some of the models hinted at it but it was a sporadic signal at best…and some spots did really well this morning better than anything shown. Models aren’t gospel all the time. 

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

That is crazy!   Its currently 39 degrees in North Bend and the snow is falling off the trees here with lots of dripping.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is crazy!   Its currently 39 degrees in North Bend and the snow is falling off the trees here with lots of dripping.  

Wow! Yeah everything is frozen solid here! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

Yesterday hope was lost but you may have about 8-10” of snow on the ground by the time things wrap Sunday with more likely at your elevation next week. This was a set up that was prime for having a hard time picking up on subtle features like the one that set up over the central/north sound this morning. 

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Pendleton is getting hammered right now. In the lower 20s now too per the ODOT cams. Looks like light snow falling in the eastern and central Gorge, with temps around freezing there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I got caught up in the models, I usually don’t do that since I have seen so many over performances…I should have listened to you and Snowmizer. Just hard when you see basically every model showing zero or almost zero and temp maps in the 40’s. Not sure any temp map showed me at 28 degrees right now??? 

Just checked the 00Z ECMWF and it showed 31 or 32 in your area at this time.     But it also showed around 30 in North Bend right now and its quite a bit warmer.     Its just the Randy effect... it always works!   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Meanwhile here in the SE ridge. Currently 75 with a DP of 63. Feels like a more humid version of a classic Seattle summer day. Decently windy as well.

228486D4-22BF-4016-A09C-3042B1824125.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Had a really nice snow shower move in right as I was leaving for work. Looking at the ODOT cams, it looks like Silver Falls is getting rocked. 

It was snowing all the way down into Silverton, sticking to roads and about 1"+ above 800', you could tell below that this was the first time it had been cold enough for snow to stick. It was 29 at the house, 33 by the time I got to Silverton. Sticking at the edge of town, but sun was actually peaking through the clouds once I got to downtown. 

In Salem there were some wet snow showers, car thermometer in the 35-37 range in the city. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Butler Hill along HWY 22 west of Salem heading towards Spirit Mountain Casino is seeing accumulating snow now. About 600'. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The band kind of stalled out a bit, I was expecting things to stop here in Edmonds about a half hour ago but it’s still coming down pretty good. Of course my house is just a little too far north now lol

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Seems like we're being a bit shadowed at the moment. Do you think it'll even out and we'll do well later on? Most models show it but the last few years have been pretty disappointing here but this time it seems like a decent chance for us doing okay.

Yeah, dynamics aren’t great for the west side right now. It’s pretty much just typical onshore flow and mid levels actually warm a bit this afternoon while we continue to see enhancement potential. This evening everything migrates west as offshore flow slowly deepens and cold air advection ramps up.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked the 00Z ECMWF and it showed 31 or 32 in your area at this time.     But it also showed around 30 in North Bend right now and it’s quite a bit warmer.     It’s just the Randy effect... it always works!   😀

35 in Tacoma with strong N winds. Hard to believe that it’s 39 in north bend but not surprising with some late February sunshine. The cold air hasn’t really fully gotten entrenched yet though. Probably won’t get above freezing tomorrow…especially if it snows. 

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Dang...

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_50.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Carolinas? GA?

I'll be in SC 3/2 - 3/7 for my folks 50th anniversary. 

Alabama

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is snow from 4 p.m. today through 4 p.m. tomorrow... step back from the 06Z run for sure.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7196800.png

Looks pretty good for Salem south. I also have a feeling my brother in Coos County is going to score big with this setup. Only an inch or so out here, but with what we are getting this morning, we should be fine. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF through 4 a.m. tomorrow... reminder some of this has already fallen though.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7153600 (3).png

Not sure how to feel-- this run may have rained on our little parade a bit 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Doinko said:

Bit worrying but hoping it's wrong

No idea... but remember Randy's area way over-performed with a similar set up last night so I think it comes down to watching it in real time at this point.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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