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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Largely underplayed.

Yeah... it did not have a good handle on the snow in the Seattle/Everett area.    But maybe over-estimated snow in this morning from Portland southward.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Can you imagine if 2-3ft fell across the metro after the NWS forecast literally 0"? I can't even imagine the chaos that would occur in the city of the RDPS scenario actually occurred tonight. No one in Portland who isn't a weather nerd is expecting anything significant.

That would be what, an inch or two of precip, or more?  We've barely had that much for the whole month here.  Makes  no sense to me. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it did not have a good handle on the snow in the Seattle/Everett area.    But maybe over-estimated snow in this morning from Portland southward.  

Will be really interesting to see what happens down south and up here tonight. I’m thinking 1/2” from Seattle to Tacoma and over an inch in Olympia. 6” at PDX. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Will be really interesting to see what happens down south and up here tonight. I’m thinking 1/2” from Seattle to Tacoma and over an inch in Olympia. 6” at PDX. 

If PDX gets 6” I’ll break up with Jesse. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Am I an idiot for not being super optimistic until NWS is on board? I can’t reconcile what models are showing w/ hesitance of pro mets to confirm this is happening. They’re capable of communicating nuance and saying “this is a hard forecast; some areas will do well while others will not.” But they haven’t even said that.

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Okay final forecast I guess-- I'm going 2-4" over a good portion of the metro with some lucky people getting 4-8".

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Am I an idiot for not being super optimistic until NWS is on board? I can’t reconcile what models are showing w/ hesitance of pro mets to confirm this is happening. They’re capable of communicating nuance and saying “this is a hard forecast; some areas will do well while others will not.” But they haven’t even said that.

Mark Nelsen says there's potential for a real snowstorm

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4 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Oh come onnnn we can do better than this. 

Considering the Euro is usually quite stingy with snowfall I would call this okay! I think Sunday will be great! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

This weekend

54D9A671-0895-406C-882B-508947F71223.png

Love it. Widespread 1-3" amounts in the lowlands. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This seems kind of extreme...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

ORZ007-008-230230-
/O.CON.KPQR.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, and Lebanon
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Central Willamette Valley and South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This seems kind of extreme...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

ORZ007-008-230230-
/O.CON.KPQR.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, and Lebanon
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Central Willamette Valley and South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

It’s what happens when the deal gets real.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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27 minutes ago, Doinko said:

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/22/wednesday-morning-forecast-track-so-far-snowy-models-stressing-out-forecasters/

 

A quick update here is to tell you that we are very nervous about the late afternoon/evening/overnight forecast. That’s because several models continue to insist we get a real “snow storm” late this afternoon through tonight as temperatures cool down to freezing.

 

For the 2nd consecutive run, Euro and Canadian models say that SOMETHING IS UP for tonight. Implying we get some sort of “January 2017 surprise”. That was the 1-4″ forecast that turned into 2-15″ in the metro area. No, I don’t really believe 28″ snow will fall in Beaverton in the next 24 hours with 1/2″ in Canby.

I'm still very bitter about '17 and have been in therapy ever since.  Rained all evening and didn't turn over till about 4am the next morning and by then just 8 miles away the snow had piled up.  I ended up with 4" but that one really hurt.  Still licking my wounds on that one. 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This seems kind of extreme...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

ORZ007-008-230230-
/O.CON.KPQR.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, and Lebanon
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Central Willamette Valley and South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Shouldn’t that be a winter storm warning? 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This seems kind of extreme...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

ORZ007-008-230230-
/O.CON.KPQR.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230223T1800Z/
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-
Including the cities of Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton,
Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, and Lebanon
1018 AM PST Wed Feb 22 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Central Willamette Valley and South Willamette Valley.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Most models show that after sundown here. Some places will be closer to 1" though

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27 minutes ago, Doinko said:

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/22/wednesday-morning-forecast-track-so-far-snowy-models-stressing-out-forecasters/

 

A quick update here is to tell you that we are very nervous about the late afternoon/evening/overnight forecast. That’s because several models continue to insist we get a real “snow storm” late this afternoon through tonight as temperatures cool down to freezing.

 

For the 2nd consecutive run, Euro and Canadian models say that SOMETHING IS UP for tonight. Implying we get some sort of “January 2017 surprise”. That was the 1-4″ forecast that turned into 2-15″ in the metro area. No, I don’t really believe 28″ snow will fall in Beaverton in the next 24 hours with 1/2″ in Canby.

Going to head home from work at lunch. Been snowing in Gresham most of the morning but don’t want to risk it until the late afternoon commute. A widespread snowstorm for PDX Metro seems very likely now for tonight into tomorrow morning.

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Are the east winds moving into PDX ahead of schedule? I wasn't expecting to see it this soon, but maybe I wasn't paying attention. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are the east winds moving into PDX ahead of schedule? I wasn't expecting to see it this soon, but maybe I wasn't paying attention. 

Pretty much on time. Pretty shallow for now though as mid levels are still primarily southerly.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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