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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

Anti Marine Layer

By Anti Marine Layer
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by The Ms. Anthrop,

Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts. 

insta pin. glorious cloud pics!

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Posted by Gradient Keeper,

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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Posted by ajreich,

NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
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Posted by BLI snowman,

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.
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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are the east winds moving into PDX ahead of schedule? I wasn't expecting to see it this soon, but maybe I wasn't paying attention. 

 

 

Rod said there was a good chance it would happen late am and certainly later afteroon for sure but made a point it could very well be earlier. I'm pretty calm here with a little SE drift and 36f

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Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm a

OysterPrintout
OysterPrintout

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.   

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Saw this posted on social media. 

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Weakening front and with that trajectory a lot of people get a troublesome south breeze.  Our cold airmass is getting pretty stale by the weekend which doesn’t help. 

Others’ loss is my gain. South breeze = cold air banking and upsloping IMBY.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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SpaceRace22 Mentor

SpaceRace22

Posted
Posted

Just saying, so far the progression of events this morning has been basically identical to the RDPS 3 foot doomsday run. Plus, inside the 24 hour time frame, everyone should also be much more inclined to trust the higher resolution mesoscale models over the big deterministic models. The GFS & Euro are far less useful inside this range.

Tl;dr Everyone in the Portland metro is getting 15-30+" by tomorrow and you can't change my mind.

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Just saying, so far the progression of events this morning has been basically identical to the RDPS 3 foot doomsday run. Plus, inside the 24 hour time frame, everyone should also be much more inclined to trust the higher resolution mesoscale models over the big deterministic models. The GFS & Euro are far less useful inside this range.

Tl;dr Everyone in the Portland metro is getting 15-30+" by tomorrow and you can't change my mind.

image.gif.cb671d248b5e46e35b6d679ac32db814.gif

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Mid Valley Duck Experienced

Mid Valley Duck

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Just saying, so far the progression of events this morning has been basically identical to the RDPS 3 foot doomsday run. Plus, inside the 24 hour time frame, everyone should also be much more inclined to trust the higher resolution mesoscale models over the big deterministic models. The GFS & Euro are far less useful inside this range.

Tl;dr Everyone in the Portland metro is getting 15-30+" by tomorrow and you can't change my mind.

I thought you were joking but you arent wrong, this is not that bad of a map. Maybe its a tad too far south but we'll see.
1677092400-jUnR44i5yyg.png

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

My wife said it's snowed at least 2" since I left at 8:30. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

I’m bout to get hammered in whistler Saturday night in the middle of a snowstorm and it’s gonna be ******* amazing. 

I’ll be there too doing the same!

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Bellingham 28F DP 9. NE wind gusting to 58MPH. 

Unbelievable. What a BLAST. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Seems like a ton of potential in the long range. Around the 10th of March we do finally see some warming in the ensembles, but about a -6C ensemble mean at SLE for much of the long range... Pretty darn solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Dumping in Salmon Creek. Still 33 here so not sticking quite as much as it was over along the 205. But the flakes are turning fluffier here and we have a heavy wet dusting! Feels so surreal to be here. I work nights so I went straight from work to the airport, lol.

Just cloudy here right now

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TacomaWx Grand Master

TacomaWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Exciting morning with up to an inch in spots around the city! But it melted pretty quickly in most places. Might be something developing again over the central Sound on IR/radar. 

Yeah, have been watching closely while I’m “very busy working” this morning. Haven’t had any flakes in Redmond since about 10am. 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, runninthruda206 said:

What! That’s awesome. Are you planning on hitting the mountain? We’ll be boarding on Sunday and it should be near perfect conditions with all the fresh powder. 

Skiing Saturday and Sunday, partying Friday and Saturday nights. Gonna be a great weekend!

And missing the -20 to -30 wind chills the alpine is getting today and tomorrow.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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