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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

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This was just posted for where I’m at… I don’t think those wind speeds are even close to meeting the Wind Advisory criteria but ok. 😂

5BDC9642-82BE-4F49-A219-0A6854A1B7D1.jpeg

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

On the other hand EURO *does* show some pretty robust precip coming through just before 4 PM and it's worth nothing temps on the east side are mostly conducive to sticking snow now that the offshore flow has turned on. Timing is super wonky on nearly every model 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Little too warm now that it’s mid afternoon for accumulating snow unless there’s some high precip rates. Nice to see precip making it this far north though. 

It’s nice to see precip almost to Graham now…. Seems like the precip shield is always a little farther north than anticipated 

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Currently 37.5F and light rain.

I think we should start to do much better around here starting early this evening but feeling a tad nervous about it.

If the Euro is right, this is how much snow we will see from the 24 hours starting at 4 PM today. Not terribly impressive. 

The euro very clearly called for 1-2 inches here last night with temps at 32F/30F and that busted pretty badly. These kind of events can be harder for the global models to handle and perhaps the mesoscale stuff is more reasonable to look at (as was the case for 1/10/17) but the euro doesn't show anything too impressive tonight and that is a tad worrying.

snku_024h-imp.us_nw.png

Euro really pumped the brakes on the idea of explosive frontal stuff and seems more in line with rotating more in the way of stable deformation bands. I’m going with a blend of the GOLU and RRB (radar refresh button) models. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Little bit of a dusting at my brothers house in Coquille, on the Southern Oregon coast. They are about 10 miles inland. About 75' elevation. 

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Can someone just reassure me that the moisture down in Olympia will make it to Seattle? Just say yes it will make it that far north. 🙏🙏🙏

Models show eventually later Seattle area is on the northern fringe. That can change though could end up extending precip farther north than expected. 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

On the other hand EURO *does* show some pretty robust precip coming through just before 4 PM and it's worth nothing temps on the east side are mostly conducive to sticking snow now that the offshore flow has turned on. Timing is super wonky on nearly every model 

If the euro is right, it gets to freezing around here by 4-5 PM. Moderate snow for a few hours and it is out of here by 9 PM or so. About 1-2 inches for me in that period. In parts of the metro there would be a dusting at most since the precip types clearly show as a mix even at 7 PM in the central and southern metro. I really hope the euro is wrong about this. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

If the euro is right, it gets to freezing around here by 4-5 PM. Moderate snow for a few hours and it is out of here by 9 PM or so. About 1-2 inches for me in that period. In parts of the metro there would be a dusting at most since the precip types clearly show as a mix even at 7 PM in the central and southern metro. I really hope the euro is wrong about this. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

GRAF is solid that most of the precip will happen later but I'm getting a bit worried

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

If the euro is right, it gets to freezing around here by 4-5 PM. Moderate snow for a few hours and it is out of here by 9 PM or so. About 1-2 inches for me in that period. In parts of the metro there would be a dusting at most since the precip types clearly show as a mix even at 7 PM in the central and southern metro. I really hope the euro is wrong about this. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_state_or.png

The EURO could certainly be completely right/wrong but at the same time I don't buy that every part of the pretty heavy snow dump it shows over part of the metro is wrong. It's just gonna be a wait and see at this point, I think, but I feel as though you're guaranteed at least 1-3".

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I agree with Dewey, time to GOLU, this band moving through the Central Valley right now is pretty intense, I may have missed it, but I did not see this picked up well on the models. Bad timing as the low level airmass is a bit warmer down here than Clark County, but I would bet this rotates north. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SLE reporting snow now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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BLI's going to have sub-freezing high today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We have hit peak insolation. All downhill from here (hopefully uphill with regard to snow amounts lol!)

Holding at 33. Snow has lightened up a little bit but small flakes are still falling. About 1.25” out there. Some slushing on the road and snow falling off the trees but hopefully only another couple hours of that.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree with Dewey, time to GOLU, this band moving through the Central Valley right now is pretty intense, I may have missed it, but I did not see this picked up well on the models. Bad timing as the low level airmass is a bit warmer down here than Clark County, but I would bet this rotates north. 

Dropped me 4.5 degrees over the past hour. Down to 37.0

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1 minute ago, MWG said:

Currently 43F and partly cloudy. Can't get worse than this 🤣

Warmest temp I can find in Oregon. 

Sweet Home is 42, EUG is 41. Strong south winds and mixing ahead of the trough. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’d text Tiger.

He's at 43, I told him he was the warmest place in Oregon, but he's actually tied with Medford. However, obs in his area do seem to support this. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warmest temp I can find in Oregon. 

Sweet Home is 42, EUG is 41. Strong south winds and mixing ahead of the trough. 

I just went to my memories and this came up. Forgot we had snow in 2028 too. 

35F65CD6-8D4B-437F-A871-223654B43FC3.thumb.jpeg.286886dec4b71eb6578ad38cc813cde5.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@MossMan play with the sound up.  Aren't you glad you aren't here today.  😀

Makes me nauseous!! No dripping here thankfully! Temp is 33.1 degrees with a DP  of 28! Trees are still caked! The snow has evaporated from the roads it looks like though. 

826F6C3E-310D-4627-9A7F-8E0ED85D7E80.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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