Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
For days I've been excited about storms and heavy rain this weekend. However, as is the case all too often, models are backing off as we approach the start. Some models are drying out my area big time. Instead of 2+ inches, there are now models showing less than a half inch Friday and less than an inch total all weekend. Regarding the first wave on Friday, it has slowed and it doesn't arrive here until midday Friday when the storms are crapping out. The second wave is still very up in the air. A few models insist there will be a plume of heavy rain from Missouri up through southeast Iowa. Other models (Euro) say the heavy rain will be in northern Iowa into Minnesota, with no heavy band from Missouri into southeast Iowa. Once again, I am having to greatly lower my expectation and just hope we can get an inch out of this entire weekend.
On top of the BS this weekend, there is suddenly a trend on some models toward early May being much less warm and active compared to what they've been advertising in recent days.
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