Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
I wanted to comment about the weather on Tuesday, but I always get sidetracked in doing and looking at other things. Plus I was helping with storm cleanup for people from my church that evening. The first batch of showers Tuesday afternoon was heavier then it appeared on radar as PWATS were quite high, but I was in a gap between heavier cells of course. Still ended the first round with exactly 0.40". Then a short period of sunshine preceded an ominous shelf cloud from the last brief, intense line of storms. The sky looked greenish and I was out shooting video (with iPhone 15 Pro Max) and photos till the last second! But only 0.24" rain from that line with wind gust only around 43 mph and not as windy at my location as early in the afternoon. But had some decent hail with a few of the largest stones at 1" diameter. But 2 farms approximately 3-4 miles se. of me had buildings destroyed from a possible little spin up tornado or microburst? One building was totally flattened and the other farm had half of the roof gone among other damage. Total rainfall on Tuesday was only 0.64".
The drought maps may be off for my location since we've had very good rains in Mar. and especially this month. Field tile lines are running since the heavy rains of early April and water is standing in roadside ditches after each rainfall. With today's rainfall I'm approaching 4" for the month. And it looks active again by late April.
Just checked my weather station and I'm just over 4" for the month, with over a third of an inch so far today.
It appears that the majority of the U.S. Cornbelt region will be blessed with a lot of moisture as we close out April. @Clinton you should finally fill up that watering hole of yours!
After looking at the overnight radar loops, our KC peeps did fairly well I'd say...#trainingstorms
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=ictrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=10&year=2024&month=4&day=17&hour=22&minute=5
06Z GFS was not so emphatic about a major pattern change... looks more variable like we have been seeing lately.
EPS also looks variable and seems to be shifting the focus more to the south with the troughing next week. I am sure there will be some rain events over the next couple of weeks though.
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